2006 was a banner year for democrats. The party ID was +3 for Dems. Do you prefer pulling numbers out of thin air? Or affirmative action for Barack Obama in the polls?
I don’t think too many expect D & R turnout to be even this year. It won’t be a 6% difference but it could easily be 2% - 3%.
That banner year was related to the Mark Foley October surprise that the DNC media kept in the headlines for 4 weeks !