Posted on 10/14/2008 5:09:38 AM PDT by tomymind
Barack Obama has erased traditional Republican advantages in four key bellwether counties that President George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey. Each county is critical to the outcome in the battleground state where it is located.
In Reno, Nevada's Washoe County, Obama leads McCain by a 46-45 percent margin, with six percent undecided. Obama posts a wider 50-44 percent lead with five percent undecided in Raleigh, North Carolina's Wake County, and another 6-point lead in Hillsborough County, Fla., where Tampa is located. There, he edges McCain 47-41 percent, with 11 percent undecided.
Among the four counties tested, McCain leads in only one: Jefferson County, Colo., a populous Denver suburb. McCain is ahead there by a margin of 45-43 percent, with eight percent undecided.
At first glance, these Politico/InsiderAdvantage numbers might not look so troubling for McCain, who trailed Obama by 10 points in an ABC/Washington Post national survey, released Monday.
But these four counties are crucial battlegrounds in four of the most competitive states in the presidential race. In recent years, the Republican path to the White House has run through these areas.
In 2004, President Bush won Washoe County, Nevada's second-most populous county, by a four-point margin over Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry. This year, when Obama is expected to run up a big vote lead in Las Vegas' Clark County, McCain is unlikely to be able to afford a loss in Washoe.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Is it your job to try and demoralize the conservative base? It ain’t workin! What ‘poll’ will we see you post next? Obama takes the lead...in Alabama?
Good one!
Oh, and I suppose you are the king of credibility here Mr. Doom and Gloom. Hasn’t it ever occurred to you that Schmidt said that to rally the troops? I do like what Schmidt said about McCain being a closer and Obambi being a fader, or do you have evidence to claim otherwise? If you look at the second half of the primary campaign between Hillary and Obambi this argument holds true.
This methodology has always worked in the past. And this year they are showing 41 percent of voters will be Democrats and 29 percent will be Republicans and 30 percent are independents.
Polling over decades has proved that voters always vote FOR SOMEONE. They never come out to vote AGAINST a candidate.
Therefore they do not poll for those who are luke warm for McCain but will vote for him because they fear Obama. You will find that polling techniques have to get an election wrong before the pollsters take new situations into account.
This is the first year that a black far out liberal is running for the Presidency and the pollsters are counting Republicans who are not enthusiastic about McCain as non voters when they will vote not because they want McCain to be president but because they greatly fear Obama.
For the first time in history A very significant number of people will vote not to elect McCain but to defeat Obama.
McCain's internal polling is taking this into account. That is why he sees Iowa as still being in contention as well as Pennsylvania. Obama with an 11 point lead is campaigning in Pennsylvania a lot. Perhaps his internal polls have it figured out too.
The McCain bashers are very much like the Reagan bashers in 1980. The right wing was furious with Reagan because he refused to make a single critical statement about Carter. Reagan never once said the least critical thing about Carter and his handling of the Iran hostages situation or even about Carter and the failed economy.
Tons of right wingers were just furious that Reagan was giving Jimmy Carter a free ride.
You may recall that in 1980 the media was saying the presidency was just too big a job for one man. And if Carter was having trouble doing it all, Reagan would find the job impossible. There were stories in the media about electing two presidents one to handle the ceremonial tasks and another to actually govern.
If Reagan has listened to those on the Right that demanded he attack Carter, Carter would have had a second term and Reagan would have been remembered as the man too dumb to defeat Jimmy Carter.
It is interesting to note that McCain says he is a great fan of Reagan. He is definitely campaigning like Reagan did in 1980. Back in 1980 the right wing fools were screaming at Reagan "Attack Carter You Dumb SOB!" Reagan just ingnored his right wing critics just as McCain is doing this year.
No one including Reagan could win the presidency with out getting at least half the independent voters. Reagan knew that independent voters will not vote for an attack dog. Republicans are at best 35 percent of the voters. To get to 50 plus percent a Republican has to win a bit over half the independent vote. Attack your opponent and lose the independent vote. Independents vote for the Nice Guy. They could care less about ideology. An attack dog candidate is not a nice guy, and he can kiss the independent vote good bye. Those screaming for McCain to attack are either ignorant or really want to see Obama elected.
Every successful presidential candidate since World War II had refrained from attacking his opponent. Ike used Nixon as his attack Dog. Nixon used Agnew as his. By the time we got to Reagan he was using Republican surogates to attack Carter. And took nice guy to a whole new level. The most vicious thing he said to carter was "There you go Again!!!" It was a phrase designed to appeal to independents. It was a nice guy defense.
The presidential candidates that do do attack have always lost. That is why the NEW YORK TIMES prints stories about McCain failing to attack. Here is a clue. THE NEW YORK TIMES WANTS OBAMA TO WIN.
My guess is a lot of the critical of McCain posters are very much for Obama. Either that or they are extremely ignorant of what it takes to win elections.
so, again, why are you posting gloom and doom? i think we are all painfully aware of the poll results as they are broadcast hither and yon continually. we are also capable of looking behind them and reading and analyzing them and finding them wanting. do you understand that the left wants to DEPRESS TURNOUT from our side? do you understand that moaning and handwringing that all is lost, mccain is down, could accomplish that objective? do you then understand why you are suspected of being a troll?
What you call “moaners” are simply being realistic.
Look at what happened during the Fannie May/Freddie Mack fiasco; Nothing was done about who caused it and the Democrats involved managed to pin it on 8 years of Republican corruption without blinking.
And instead of this becoming the greatest scandal in history like it should, it has fizzled out into “Oh well!”.
Of course if this would have been connected directly to McCain or some group of Republicans, they would be lined up before a firing squad by now.
BTW, would you consider #94 close enough to fulfill my “shut-up, stomping feet loudly” prediction?
Bingo!
i direct you to my post 106. so are you REALISTICALLY attempting to depress voter turnout? because what do you hope to accomplish with all of this realism? what if it’s closer than it appears? what if it’s razor thin like the past two elections? what if your REALISM keeps people demoralized and home and not voting because OH WELL ALL IS LOST there is no point? and what if that makes the difference in another razor thin election? what do you hope to accomplish three weeks out with all of your realism, that’s my question to you>? because i see NO GOOD coming from it, no altruistic motive on your part.
Here’s a poll: Go sit on it!
Home run!
i don’t waste keystrokes ; )
Now, the real question is: since I think the nationals are "lagging" by a couple of days, is this new McCain surge due to his calling out Ayers and Obama's terror connections?
that needs to be addressed to every moaning handwringer who squawks about being called a troll. there is no good that comes from moaning. none. only harm.
There are alot of whiner Conservatives who won’t vote for McCAin....
You take on the moaning handwringers, I’ll handle the subversives.
i suppose it could be a lot of things. i imagine the campaign itself polls for the specifics? common wisdom is that when it comes to undecideds deciding, they expect them to break for McCain.
well there is an overlap and the very least we can do is shame the legit moaners into shutting up, which will expose those who continue, as the subversives : )
Go get ‘em!
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