It wasn't 20 points, but 28 points -- from McCain +10 (49-39) to Obama +18 (53-39). Gallup has just reported some movement in Independent support to Obama, but nothing like this.
I'm calling BS on this poll. In previous CBS polls, they used a sample that assumes around 40% Democratic turnout. In this one, however, the Democratic number is only 37.5, but they still grossly undersampled Republicans (29.2) and -- apparently -- moved their oversample of Democrats to Independents (33.4%). It looks to me like someone at CBS took 2.5% of the Democrats and simply lumped them with "Independents" to generate such a huge 28 point shift to Obama.
Or look at it this way. Until this poll, CBS has been assuming that 40% of voters will be Democrats. Has anything happened in the last week to make them think that, now, turnout will be only 37.5% Democrats? Did somemone finally air a Jeremiah Bullfrog ad or something? And if the Democrat suddenly became less popular, wouldn't you expect the Repbulicans to rise above the 29% number? I mean, if the Democrats become less popular, doesn't it follow that their loss would be the GOP's gain? Or is someone merely trying to disguise a 12 point Democratic oversample by moving some of the Democrats to "Independent?"
“It wasn’t 20 points, but 28 points — from McCain +10 (49-39) to Obama +18 (53-39)”
A 28% swing in one week? Gallup did show movement to independents but then Gallup had McCain trailing nationally with a 9% IND lead - I mean, please. Meanwhile Ras is as steady as a rock at 5%, Zogby has McCain net +2 for tomorrow.
“It wasn’t 20 points, but 28 points — from McCain +10 (49-39) to Obama +18 (53-39). Gallup has just reported some movement in Independent support to Obama, but nothing like this. “
Oops, my spellchecker screwed up. That should be 51-33, not 53-39. The 18 points is right. I need to get my eyes checked or something.