Posted on 10/16/2008 7:16:18 AM PDT by tatown
Obama 50%, McCain 44%
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I honestly think the Joe the Plumber thing is getting some real traction. He’s one of us, just like Sarah, and he’s telling people straight about why Obama doesn’t have their best interests in mind.
hey daddy what is that out there on the horizon i dont see too good...but its moving towards us.
that my boy...is what we call a trend!
Dare we be optimistic?
Listen to what Joe BIDEN has to say about Joe the plumber. Keep talking Joe!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j66LUroXUck
Average Joe vs. Not Your Average Joe! I can tell you, more people empathize with a real man who shaved his head than one with hair plugs!
Excellent. Believe me folks, we can win this thing. The polls will begin to tighten to within their MOEs.
Except for the Forged Document Station. Their poll will sample 20% Republicans and still show Obama carrying 52 states.
We need to get him under 50%. That is the number I am worried about....
This race has been winnable all along. The polls are skewered by overweighting democrats by around a 4:3 ratio. If you do that, then you are naturally going to have Obama up about 7-10%.
The race should tighten up because the pollsters don’t want to be off on the actual election. It will come down to the swing states and McCain has got to “run” the table to some extent. But it is doable.
Given the economy, if McCain keeps it within 3-5% as measured by Zogby and IBD, he has got a chance… maybe not 50-50, but definitely one in three.
Personally, I think McCain did great last night, and I have to thank, in large part, Schieffer. Thought I’d never say that. Also, thank you Joe the Plumber. He speaks for the silent majority.
I early-voted yesterday in my red state. Observations:
(1) Turnout the first day of early voting was quite heavy.
(2) The sights and sounds indicated to me that there were a LOT of Obama voters in line. (This is a red state, and I live in a Republican county.)
Conclusion: Red state McCain/Palin voters need to SHOW UP and VOTE. Turnout will be very important everywhere.
THis POLL IS USELESS AND PURE CRAP!
YOU CAN NOT RADICALLY CHANGE A TRACKING POLL FORMULA TO HELP OBAMA AND CONSIDER IT ANYTHING BUT PROPAGANDA !
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/battleground_drops_party_weigh.php
Once they made hit change this change its is waste of time.
At least the trend is in McCain’s direction. But yes, the spread is showing worse than it really is because of the bogus weighting Battleground was talked into this year.
It’s not really the individual daily result I’m interested in with this poll but instead the direction of the daily results. As of right now, it appears that this poll is picking up the same movement towards McCain that both Gallup, and Rasmussen have showed.
When this poll was showing McCain in the lead it had a democrat weighting advantage of +3. The weighting is now closer to +9 (according to Goeas). If they were using their old method, then they’d have this tied even with a +3 dem advantage.
Where you at?
Vote for McCain on Elections Day. Ask you family, friends, colleagues, neighbors to vote for McCain on November 4th because that is the only poll that counts.
Vote for America. Vote for McCain/Palin.
I am wondering in two different concepts.
1. The polls are totally correct and obama pulls it off and we as predicted, have Bob Dole II with a better VP.
2. The polls are totally fake ala fox news dynamics and all the whisper talk of racism is to call the “victory a defeat” and have the democrats demanding some form of quota power sharing BS.
3. Rodney King Riots II. (Obama promised me a free TV and I am getting my free TV)
Remember that in the Sept 24-26 Battleground poll, the weighting was changed. Before the change, Sen. McCain 48
Sen. Obama 46. After the change, Sen. Obama 48 Sen McCain 46.
So, I think the Battlground poll is closer than it looks right now.
LETS GO LETS GO !!! Get out each and every day and make contact with at least one voter on the bubble....... give them the feeling you are really secure in a McCain - Palin presidency..... it works, there are many frightened voters out there right now regarding what to do on November 4th....
Yes I agree. Please read post #13:
“When this poll was showing McCain in the lead it had a democrat weighting advantage of +3. The weighting is now closer to +9 (according to Goeas). If they were using their old method, then they’d have this tied even with a +3 dem advantage.”
This is what really got me pretty optimistic late last night:
Conversations with an internal pollster for Obama...
Well... again, cautiously optimistic.
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