Posted on 10/17/2008 1:28:46 PM PDT by mojito
The prospect of a U.S. or Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has conjured up a variety of dire scenarios: a stratospheric rise in oil prices, further radicalization across Middle East, and the resumption of mass bloodshed in Iraq, as Teheran unleashes its terrorist agents there. But all this talk of catastrophe still gives short shrift to one of the gravest potential threats: Iranian attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Iran is bringing 21st century warfare to the seas by planning small-boat suicide attacks that would resemble in some ways the aerial and naval suicide missions launched by Imperial Japan during its last desperate days in the Second World War. At the Battle of Okinawa in 1945, the Japanese mixed unconventional and conventional tactics to kill 12,000 Americans and wound more than 33,000. Iran, by contrast, is threatening a purely unconventional naval war, including attacks on U.S. military targets and on international maritime traffic. Oil prices would spike, and Iran would enjoy a long-term profit, even if it temporarily could not export its own oil....
The Persian Gulf possesses 55 percent of the world’s crude oil reserves. Iran dominates the whole Gulf, from the Shatt al Arab on its Iraqi border to the Strait of Hormuz 615 miles away. Deployed from this immense seaboard are the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, or IRGCN. U.S. Navy officers told me they have had civil encounters at sea with the regular Iranian navy, but not with the IRGCN. The IRGCN is a fully mechanized terrorist force. Although it is the unconventional offshoot of the regular navy, it is actually slightly larger than its parent, with 20,000 reportedly heavily-ideological sailors. It promises an unprecedented fusion of a modern military with sea-based asymmetric force.
(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...
I think our Naval officers in the Gulf know more about the Iranians than Kaplan suggests.
IMO they could close the straights to all oil traffic for about two weeks. Then we would be thouroughly underway with a roleback strategy and we would begin escorting convoys through the SOH under heavy air-cover and surface force protection.
This would go on for 2-3 months. All the while, Iran would be selling next to nothing, just small shipments via the stans and Caspian to the north.
We could keep this up and keep an blockade on their exports. They would be the big losers.
Sure it’s gonna suck, but the alternative sucks a whole lot more.
Yes, and the Iranians would be ill-advised to uck-fay with an Aegis Combat System.
unless things have changed in recent years, the IRGC forces were vetted for their political loyalty and religious zeal, not technical aptitude or intelligence or willingness to follow orders unless out of the koran
Thus regardless of their numbers and equipment, they are an inferior fighting force and very susceptible to diseurption in command and control that robs them of contact with the mullahs about what to do in crisis. Typical of top down command that inhibits independent decisionmaking and initiative
That is not to say they couldn’t get lucky, don’t have to be dealt with as a serious threat worst case scenario, and could certainly be employed as deadly projectiles by their masters in Tehran.
Fair to say they would have absolutely no air cover of note within moments of our choosing to remove it, and probably no significant radar, command or communications either
Remember how “long”it took us to rout the fearsome numbers of the well-equipped Iraqi military....
They won’t close the straits and kiss their their gasoline supplies good bye.
Besides, Aegis class would blow their little dingies into the next dimension.
I guess the author believes we should do nothing and let Iran get her nukes.
Lord help us when she does.
and boats are alot slower than planes
I think this guy might be surprised at just how effective the Navy could be in turning small boats into smaller splinters at great distances. They haven’t done so thus far because they chose not to, not because they don’t have that capability. And remember, since these attacks could be traced to Theran, the entire Iranian Navy would likely be declared hostile and sent to the bottom on day one.
I agree. Block the exports and the imports. Iran imports most of their gasoline and I would think that there would be some sort of “accident” at their one refinery. Nothing like no money and no gas to make the population even less happy with the mullahs.
Most of the world has utterly no clue what the Aegis Combat System can do. The Persian Gulf would be a fascinating opportunity to demonstrate this system we’ve been shaking out for decades. One system can track, what, 600 targets?
Yeah, ask Saddam how that long-term profit worked out for him. LOL!
From the ship’s fire control perspective it is a target acquisition and designation problem which i suggest has been solved. One or two 5 inch rounds could take care of each ship. Shooting at a surface target is like shooting at fish in a barrel. I hope the surface combatants are running a lot of drills. I kind of hate to miss the fun.
You know, this article reminds me a little of all the so-called ‘experts’ who predicted that it would take YEARS to extinguish all the oil-field fires that were set off in Kuwait during Gulf Storm.
We had them out in a matter of weeks, not months and certainly not years.
‘Experts’ can only speculate based upon the systems that are known to them. Thus, retired generals tend to speculate what will happen based upon the technology that existed when they were in command —not the stuff that is being used today.
No one can get as asymmetric as us.
Kaplan is rehashing many old Free Republic threads
Please, we don’t need to bring our ships into the Gulf to rip Iran a new one. A few bomber sortees and problem solved! If we hit the nuclear sites and send radioactive plumes east to Afghanistan and Pakistan, oh well! Three birds with one stone, if you ask me.
I’m really frustrated Bush and Cheney haven’t dealt with them yet. I’ve been hearing for a year or more that they’ve made plans to flatten them, so what are they waiting for? A mushroom cloud over Chicago?
Mk182 5-inch Kinetic Energy Electronically Timed (KE-ET) “Shotgun Projectile” “BB” round
Task Force (TF) Hip Pocket was established in 2002 to address the vulnerabilities exploited in the attack on USS COLE (DDG 67). Additionally, the Navy developed the 5”/54 Force Protection “BB” rounds which has a greater effective area and adds significant capability against high-speed small craft. Over 6,000 rounds have been delivered and will be deployed to the fleet this year.
At about 9000 Tungsten BB's per round they will put a world of hurt on a swarm of go fast's
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