Yes, I agree. Most likely...at least 2 to 1.
Maybe. TIPP allocated the remaining undecideds 2-1 in favor of Kerry in 2004. But, that was only the remaining 4% on the last day before the election.
Looking at the raw data, it appears in the last few days (before the very last day), the undecideds (around 8%) did break heavily for Bush.