[NYC_BULLMOOSE]

Very interesting insights in to why this year's polls are likely to be much less accurate in predicting outcome than the 2004 Polls were...

[NYC_BULLMOOSE]

<< So, we have made three observations: (a) relative to 2004, the standard deviation for Obama and McCain’s polls are high, indicating more disagreement among pollsters at a similar point in this cycle; (b) the shape of the distribution of each candidate’s poll position is not what we might expect; (c) multiple polls are separated from the RCP average by statistically significant differences.

Combined, these considerations suggest that this variation cannot be chalked up to typical statistical “noise.” Instead, it is more likely that pollsters are disagreeing with each other in their sampling methodologies. In other words, different pollsters have different “visions” of what the electorate will look like on November 4th, and these visions are affecting their results.
>>

[Frantzie]

It will not be the first time someone got burned by the “tails” on a standard deviation. Ask hedge fund LTCM about a decade ago. They ignored the tails that the Russian market could possibly meltdown and their hedge fund almost blew up.

[HappyinAZ]

less accurate...but ALL...even after this analysis...show the Big O ahead.

[snarkytart]

This election does have A LOT on intangibles, and it’s throwing the polls off.
I think it will be close.
TURNOUT IS THE KEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[hoosiermama]

If the number of people who asked for a democrat ballot in the spring figures in to the current Indiana poll, it going to be way off. In the Spring, between 15-20 % of the democratic voters in my princint were part of Operation Chaos.

[Ingtar]

He makes one very bad assumption in his article: he assumes that at least one of the polls reflects the actual electorate. This leads him to the conclusion that Obama is ahead. Since the polls seem to vary from 6% extra Democrats through 13%, and the normal electorate historically favors the Republicans, I submit that the entire process is flawed this time.

[swordfishtrombone]

I think Zogby predicting McCain’s victory a month ago wasn’t just his subversive way of discouraging the Republican vote (although I’m sure he did have the motive)

I think him saying “comfortable, old shoe” was a good way to hedge his bets so he doesn’t lose as much credidibilty as the rest will come Nov. 4th

[Names Ash Housewares]

Garbage in, garbage out.

No more cmplicated then that.

This year there is simply way more garbage then normal.
Not a sane person would argue against that.

[GOP Poet]

Thanks for the post!!

[reed13k]

But ..... there is no discussion about checking for normality of the distribution. If the distribution isn’t normal then standard deviations mean nothing and the tests used to compare the distributions are worthless. Sigh - lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[TexanToTheCore]

bttt