I think the polls are flawed this time because the pollsters have built in the Bradley and ACORN effect in their polls. I think their models are a mess. They have added exceptiosn to the historical models they have used.
I think the pollsters are suffering from the Bradley effect. They are afraid to say the black guy is tied or losing. The adjust their sampling with bigger Dem turnout theories to not appear to be racist.
I have another theory which almost always answers every question. Money.
Polling firms with the exception of IBD/TIPP and Battleground usually have TV network or newspaper/mag patrons. Many of these mags and newspapers are owned by TV networks and the networks and both networks and newspapers own local TV affiliates.
Obama has spent $650 million and probably $380 million in advertising? He has made their year. Many of them are struggling especially newspapers. The pollsters make their money during elections. Batlleground is funded by a university and IBD is a business newspaper.
The point is the others are whores. Zogby, ABC, CBS, CNN or any sponsored polls. They want that Obama ad money. They are adjusting their sampling to keep the networks, newspapers and magazines they do the polls with happy.
McCain has far less money but he is spending it now. He may get better polls now too.
The pollsters and MSM will be pushing Obama til the last week. I think the MSM pollsters in the last week will have to stop being whores and do an honest poll or their reputations will be ruined.
“McCain has far less money but he is spending it now. He may get better polls now too.”
And that will be the key to victory. Obama’s lead has been fueled partially by a huge advertising advantage that is closing in the final days. McCain may yet pull neck and neck by the time election day arrives.