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Day to day variations in the tracking polls don't necessarily indicate a trend. I think the major tracking polls are likely to show Obama going into Election Day with a 3-5 point lead. The real question is how well those polls reflect what the actual vote will be on Tuesday:

All of the major polls are using weighting that give a substantial edge (6-9%) in party affiliation to democrats. If that party affiliation estimate is off and the actual number is more like 3%, then the polls are off by significant amounts.
Given the huge advantage that Obama has had in expenditures and media coverage, voters have already been exposed to everything that could convince them to vote for Obama. There is good reason to believe that undecided voters will break heavily for McCain at this stage.
Given the overwhelming pressure to vote for Obama, there may be substantial numbers of independents and moderate democrats who are hedging their answers to pollsters, which may result in Obama performing worse than he does in the polls. This occured repeatedly in the late democratic primaries.

Part of the reason that pollsters are weighting the democratic vote very heavily was because of the record setting (~36 million) number of votes cast in the democratic primaries this year. However, several million of those votes were case by independents/republicans that were motivated either by Rush Limbaugh or simply because there was a more interesting race on the democratic side. Only ~18 million of those primary voters cast ballots for Obama. While these are huge numbers for a primary season, we really haven't had a primary that has gone into May for several decades. It will take well over 60 million votes to win a general election. That is a much bigger target than the primary elections. And remember, Obama didn't really even triumph in the democratic primary elections; his margin of victory was provided by caucuses, where he could prevail by organizing a very small number of very committed activist.

I don't know what the outcome is going to be, but it's going to be close, and I think our side has a much better chance than the 3-5 point deficit in the polls indicates. The best thing to do is vote and make sure your friends and relatives vote.