So What Does It Mean That McCain Outpolled Obama on Friday?

Campaign Spot/NRO ^

[Chet 99]

Friday, October 31, 2008

HORSERACE, JOHN MCCAIN, BARACK OBAMA

So What Does It Mean That McCain Outpolled Obama on Friday?

A bit earlier tonight, a skeptical reader wrote in:

As of Friday night, as we go into the last weekend of the campaign, not one national poll shows  movement toward McCain.  Most show movement toward Obama.  How do you expect anyone to believe your optimistic spins? Your so-called garu [sic] who is reporting tomorrow better be up to the task, for he has an enormous challenge to present a credible case for McCain making this race even competitive on Tuesday. By the way, the distinction you threw out there between polling numbers and intentions is as preposterous as the validity you gave to the Nick at Night children's poll. What's happening is the opposite of the wishful thinking and party line spin: independents and undecide voters are moving strongly in Obama's direction.

And then, as if to smite him, the Gods of Polling answered, and my guru - I prefer the term "mentor" — called to make sure I saw on Drudge:

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

Now, we will see if this is a one-day blip, or whether it is a trend, or an indication that the independents are indeed breaking to McCain. I had been speculating for a short while that those answering "undecided" were mostly "I don't like Obama, and will vote for the cranky old guy, but don't want to tell anyone."

10/31 10:46 PM

[goldstategop]

Obama is up by 7. We have to subtract that and add maybe 8 to arrive at McCain's true figure. Because its usually the opposite of the way the pollsters project it and the only thing that really needs to be said circumspectly is all of the polls are way off.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[jeltz25]

youtube of Reagan’s victory speech on 11/4/1980

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKdSkYYZ-MY&feature=related

it never gets old

[Chet 99]

We should have some clues right away. Indiana reports first at 630 EST. If McCain is up 10 or more, we’ll know polling was broken this cycle.

As for 1976, Ford lost the popular vote 50 to 48. Right now, I see McCain also losing the popular vote by that margin, but narrowly winning in the electoral college.

[goldstategop]

I think you're underestimating McCain's popular vote share. Its going to be much higher than shown in the polls and the converse is true for Obama. McCain will lead in both the popular vote and in the electoral college. There are more Red States in the country than Blue ones and McCain will win at least 30 states across the country from Ohio to the Nevada border.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

IN is a good barometer of the national trend. If its very close, its going to be a long night - if McCain wins it by 10 to 15, it will be a short evening. If it should go for Obama, then we can figure very reasonably the Democrats will dominate the rest of the evening.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Chunga]

For now all we can do is wait and see what it really means.

For now all we can do is vote and see what it really means.

All fixed.

[I. M. Trenchant]

Anything is possible, but the only polling that matters is the state-by-state polling, i.e., there are 50 different weighted polls, one for each state, and Zogby provided no evidence to suggest that anything has changed to diminish Obama's electoral-vote prospects. If McCain wins, he will he caught in the vice of a vengeful Democrat Congress, just as Nixon was -- a Congress that will likely cut off funding for the Iraq mission, just as the vengeful Democrat Congress, under the influence of the McGovernites, did in the case of Vietnam between 1972 and 1975. Nixon, then Ford, had to stand by and watch the Democrats vacate the commitments (and investment of U.S. lives) that they themselves had made to Vietnam in the first place! Ironically, Obama is more likely to extend the Iraq mission than McCain ever could in the grip of a vengeful Democrat Congress. A President McCain would be like a prisoner obliged to report to his parole board (the Democrat Congress) once a day.

[Arizona Carolyn]

Thank you, no... it never gets old.

BTW I watched tape three and it is well worth reviewing as well especially Rather's comments....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTMpQqDP-nk&feature=related

[Windflier]

I want to see the Weekly Reader poll, that’s conducted in elementary schools across the country every four years.

From what I’ve read, it’s correctly predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1956.

I looked for it a couple of weeks back, but couldn’t find a thing for 2008.

[word_warrior_bob]

It’s not useless at all.

We are in a propaganda war, and we have a positive piece of propaganda to use. It will pump up the base, the volunteers, the campaign, etc.

The general trend is moving McCain, he gained last weekend, the first weekend he gained in a long time.

How can polls be “useless” if they’re using them as a club to clobber us over the head with? The polls seem to depress many people here, the mood here was joyous after the RNC and all the polls were in our favor. I agree that most polls are “useless” for anything but propaganda, I and others have had to dissect them to show how biased they are to keep some here from jumping off the cliff. Remember the Yuri Bezmenov video? It’s all propaganda, be happy with this nugget.

Useless? Hardly.

[Nextrush]

The real poll comes on Tuesday and you and I make the decision.

Everyone should get into that poll and see it through, no matter how long the line is.

[goldstategop]

The American people prefer divided government. They don't want to give one party a blank check to make a mess of things. So split ticket voting appears to be in vogue since 2006 and that's returning to a pattern of preferring GOP Presidents and Democratic Congresses. So they can keep an eye on each other. They'd go with Obama if the GOP ran Capitol Hill.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[lmr]

I could buy that. I think it's like 1948, like you say.

Rush talked about Obama's campaign letting it slip that they were worried about the 'Bradley Effect' and were not comfortable without a 10 point lead in any state.

Subtract that margin from current polls and it's about a 4 percent lead for McCain.

You're right. McCain is our Truman and Obama is Dewey.

[goldstategop]

It went for Kerry in 2004. Kids are best neither seen nor heard.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[lmr]

Useless? Hardly.

Correct.

It is a PROPAGANDA WAR like you said. Our spin on this should be that this trend in polls is showing what we've thought all along. That the polls were rigged and more realistic polling happens closer to the election.

Spin Zogby's Friday poll as 'REALITY.' or at least 'BASED MORE IN REALITY' than previous polls.

[SalukiLawyer]

It means that people substitute the mysterious and tendentious thing called “polling” for their common sense. Polls are nothing more than a cheap and lazy way to have “news” to report. You can’t tell me Obama vs. McCain is going to out-perform Gore and Kerry when they were running against Bush. Few Republicans are going to vote for Obama, but a lot of Democrats will not be able to bring themselves to vote for Obama for a number of reasons, and McCain has been smarter than people give him credit for in the way he has gone after independents. The last-minute TV blitz will make things even more secure.

[goldstategop]

There are similarities. Dewey was a pretentious know it all aristocrat from New York. Truman was a plain spoken Middle American from Missouri. Truman successfully painted Dewey as an out of touch elitist snob. The rest was history.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Chet 99]

I read recently that Dewey pulled a similar infomercial stunt at the end of his campaign - only his infomercial was played in movie theaters.

[lmr]

If McCain wins, he will he caught in the vice of a vengeful Democrat Congress, just as Nixon was -- a Congress that will likely cut off funding for the Iraq mission, just as the vengeful Democrat Congress, under the influence of the McGovernites, did in the case of Vietnam between 1972 and 1975

I agree. Reid, Pelosi and Company will want the war to fail at that point.

This is why McCain needs to stand up to them. Nixon was ineffective and so was Bush II. They couldn't have done this crap to Reagan.

[goldstategop]

Polling is the lazy man's way to shape the news. But it doesn't really tell anything we need to know because of sampling problem and question framing bias, that can affect the answers provided. Then too, there is the issue of respondent refusal, which runs as high as 80%, depending on the poll. So they have serious limits as an accurate reader of public opinion. If the respondent sample is not really reflective of the public, then the answer responses will be in question. We've found that in polls all year.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus