Posted on 11/01/2008 11:09:06 AM PDT by tatown
As promised, here is what is on the mind of my mentor, nicknamed Obi-Wan Kenobi, two-and-a-half days before the sun rises on Election Day...
Your posts on some polls in Pennsylvania that show McCain within reach emphasizes what some readers need to remember, that a lot them aren’t seeing the pointed end of the McCain campaign unless they live in a targeted state and are a targeted voter. If you have the right demographic and you are in a key state, you have gotten getting six or seven mailers that are extremely good negative pieces (covering all those issues that a lot of conservatives think McCain isn’t hitting hard enough on). You have also gotten six or seven taped phone calls from Republican leaders and ordinary citizens and the messages are good. You are also hearing radio ads about “congressional liberals.”
The RNC is claiming 64 percent more contacts like this than in 2004 and I think that’s probably accurate. And the 2004 effort was impressive – RNC was praised for it. This is bigger.
And if you live in a targeted state you are seeing McCain TV ads. Lots of them. For all the talk of the Obama advertising advantage, McCain is outspending Obama by 10 million in the last ten days of the campaign. That isn’t well known. And they are good spots on McCain’s public service, the economic message and in what the McCain camp calls “Joe the Biden”, which quotes Biden about testing a new president.
(Excerpt) Read more at campaignspot.nationalreview.com ...
A quarterback, a gymnast, and an economist are stranded on a desert island. Searching for a source of food, they discover a coconut tree.
The quarterback slams his body into the tree to shake some coconuts loose, without success.
The gymnast attempts to climb the tree, but can't make it more than halfway up the smooth branchless trunk.
The economist speaks up. "Assume that we have a ladder...."
The polls all had Kerry winning and it was all over by 5pm. I kept hope with Obi-wan’s updates and the guy's got credibility.
Let's hope McCain can keep this up for a few more days. He's got momentum going in and that's a good sign.
Wow. On top of this are so many other factors, e.g., PUMAs (saw recently a 25%-30% number of Hillary supporters that are not in BO’s camp), Bradley/Wilder effect (amongst democrats as GOP voters are already not going to vote for BO regardless of color), an invigorated GOP base (the Palin Effect and a genuine fear of BO by many others), Operation Chaos (as to democrat registration numbers in the latter ‘rat primary states) and the fact that the polls were so far off in the last of the democrat primaries where Hillary blew off BO’s doors in PA and the like relative to a number of the polls, all traditional poll models are suspect.
..perhaps he feels the need to be cautious, but IMO he is understating the movement toward McCain...
Just make it enough to convince the stoners to stay home on Tuesday.
Joe the Biden....Oh, that’s good, real good.
Obi-wan isn’t an internal pollster this year, but he still will be better than, I dunno, Drudge’s exit poll leaks. LOL.
I’ve enjoyed Obi in the past as well, but he’s sounding like GOP-won-by-conventional-wisdom to me this year: taking seriously all those national polls with big Democrat differentials and not addressing the Reagan/Palin demographics of a lot of those working class Democrats in the swing states—or the outright ACORN fraud in those states.
“all traditional poll models are suspect.”
S T R O N G L Y A G R E E D
I still think that they have been attempting to poll the unpollable this year.
So many people refuse to particpate in polls or flat out lie.
They have no idea how those who refuse to be polled will vote, and it is a monstrous amount of people.
I think we know how they will vote.
And I think the undecideds are going to break for McCain big time.
Obama hasn’t sold them by now, he wont, and many are probably just afraid to sound racist to the pollsters.
Well my view is moderate Democrats want the party back from Obama and his ACORN thugs. The easiest way to do that is McCain beating Obama. This sets up the Clintons to hopefully drive a stake into the heart of Dracula.
Rendell, NM Democrats and other Dems hopefully are all behind this plan. If moderate Dems do not do this then Obama and ACORN probably control the Democrat Party forever.
GOTV does not require a lot of money. Mostly volunteers and the GOP runs it on a bare bones budget. In 2004 in SE FL we had signs but no stakes because MoveOn.org thugs had been stealing them. I ran to Home Depot and spent $400 in my own money for stakes. The young GOP staffers were suprised. We started making signs and it was back to work.
The Dems usually have to spread money around to pay “volunteers.” There GOTV people are often slackers too.
Your feelings serve you well, but they can made to serve the Emporer....
Your father was kill by a young Jedi named Darth Obama who betrayed and killed the Jedi order...
I agree that Obi-Wan is fantastic.
It would have made me feel better to have his update state: “McCain will win”, that would be a somewhat unreasonable expectation with the mixed evidence that is available about the state of the race.
Here's the way I see it. Right now, they have Obama with 311 EV, McCain with 132 EV and 95 EV as tossups.
These "tossup" states should be leaning McCain. Forget the Pravda polls. These are states that went for Bush in 2004. Obama is clearly getting less Dem support than Kerry. No way he wins these states: NC, GA, FL, MO, IN, AZ, MT and ND. Add 95 EV to McCain's total.
They have these states as solid Obama when they should be tossups: NH, IA, MN and WI. Deduct 31 from Obama's total. Why? Obama had to go back to IA to campaign this weekend, so it's clearly in play. MN and WI were fairly close in 2004 and should be closer this year. NH is a McCain stronghold.
They have these states as leaning Obama when they are clearly in play and should be classified as tossups: PA, OH, VA, NM, CO and NV. Deduct another 73 from Obama's total.
New totals: Obama 207 EV, McCain 227 EV and 104 tossup EV. Looks like a race, right?
Why would the Pravda media present the electoral map this way? Because liberals always seem to make decisions based on wishful thinking and not hard data and sound logic.
This Obi-Wan guy is startin’ to bug me.
The fact that McCain still trails in every single national poll ‘is startin’ to bug me’.
Either way, my wife and I turned in (2) straight party tickets earlier this week. We’ve done our part.
Remember, Rush said the One has to be ahead 8-10 points going into the election or he’s toast.
God I hope you are right. Just the thought of that miserable POS occupying the white house is enough to make me hurl.
Any thoughts on where things are headed over the next 72 hours? I’ve always thought that at some point before election day, we’d gain the lead in at least one poll...
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