Posted on 11/04/2008 3:03:44 PM PST by RobFromGa
SENATE PREDICTIONS
ELECTION DAY...
FROM NOV 2008 election, here’s a list of the 35 Senate races. (including 33 regular and the MS & WY special elections)
The GOP is defending 23 seats, and the Dems defend 12.
THere are 65 Senate seats that are not up for election. The GOP starts with 26 carryover seats, and the Dems start with 39 (counting the 2 “independents” Lieberman-CT and Sanders-VT).
I was way TOO OPTIMISTIC in the 2006 Midterms, so I am trying to be less optimistic this time...
There are another 26 seats that appear SAFE, barring some major change of events over the next 50 days— 15 for the GOP (incl the 2 special elections) and 12 for the Dems.
IMHO...
There are 8 seats that appear to be in play...
SAFE GOP SEATS [15]
AL- (R= current seatholder)- Sessions safe
GA- R- Chambliss safe
ID- R- Risch (open-CRAIG seat) safe
KS- R- Roberts safe
KY- R- McConnell safe
ME- R- Collins safe
MS- R- Cochran safe
MS- R- Wicker (interim/special) safe
NE- R- Johanns (open-HAGEL seat) safe
OK- R- Inhofe safe
SC- R- Graham safe
TN- R- Alexander safe
TX- R- Cornyn safe
WY- R- Enzi safe
WY- R- Barasso (interim/special) safe
GOP: 15 safe + 26 carryovers = 41 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS [12]
AR-(D=current status)- Pryor safe
DE- D- Biden safe
IA- D- Harkin safe
IL- D- Durbin safe
LA- D- Landrieu safe
MA- D- Kerry safe
MI- D- Levin safe
MT- D- Baucus safe
NM- R- Udall (pickup)
NJ- D- Lautenberg safe
RI- D- Reed safe
SD- D- Johnson safe
VA- R- Warner (pickup)
WV- D- Rockefeller safe
DEMS: 12 safe + 39 carryovers + 2 pickup = 53 minimum DEM
The EIGHT SENATE “CONTESTS” (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
ALL EIGHT of these are GOP seats, so the
[GOP CANDIDATE= all caps]
[% after = my estimate of % chance GOP win]
MN- R seat- COLEMAN vs. Franken (60%)
It looks like the Dems will pickup at least 4 as it stands right now (NM, VA, AK, CO), which would give them 55 counting the two independents...
Two more look very shaky (NC, NH) which would bring them to 57…
And even if we lose OR and MN we are still at 41.
The good news is that it appears almost certain (barring a 2006 level catastrophe) that the GOP will retain a filibuster-proof 41 votes
The GOP needs to hold the fort until 2010 when we will have a slightly more favorable situation. It is not until 2012 that we get a chance to recapture the 2006 “lost seats”...
I am going to predict 55 D and 45 R if McCain has a really good night.
You’re assuming those 41 hang together as true Republicans. The chances of there being half a dozen RINOs and Me Too Republicans for most major issues (including judicial appointments) is very high. So, this is hardly a filibuster-proof senate.
I do hope you’re right, though.
I’ll update you on the Smith-Merkley. There was only one other person turning in a ballot in mytown, Oregon when I dropped off my ballot at 1:00 pm Pacific time. Should be a good sign for RINO Smith.
I’m not convinced 41 Republicans in the Senate represents a filibuster proof total because there will be some Republicans that will cross over to vote with Dems and I personally think that if the Dems hold 59 seats the Republicans will be demoralized and likely to go along to get along. Then there’s the question of what Lieberman will do.
My prediction is 55D+2I = 57
I think Chambliss will “win” Georgia but he might not get the 50% he needs to avoid a runoff. If theres a runoff I like his chances. But figure alot of those first time Obama voters probably aren’t going to make it a point to go vote on the December 2 runoff if that happens.
Fourty two. There is no way the Democrats are going to keep Joe Lieberman in their caucus. Not after this election. His committee chairmanships are gone, he might as well hang with the GOP.
I think VA, NC, CO, NM, AK, NH are gone. I think Oregon is gone. I think that Coleman hangs on in MN. Democrats boot Joe and have a 57 seat majority.
I think Chambliss will win the 50%, the turnout in North Atlanta was very strong...
I wouldn’t be surprised to see any one of those three switch their party affiliation or go Independent.
Here in Delaware Joe Biden was on my ballot twicit.
I came out and complained about this...heh, tongue in cheekith and wink in eye. The very proper poll lady was about to explaineth but I tole her never mind, that I didn’t vote for him in either case.
Heh.
Warner pickups VA Senate seat...
Lindsey Graham win.
McConnell won re-election as did Inhofe!!
McConnell won re-election as did Inhofe!! Hagan has beaten Dole.
Why did Dole lose?
Ed
The Godless ad she ran against Hagen did her in. Sununu lost his bid in NH. Chamblis and Sessions too close to call.
Anyone still here? Fox News has called Sessions and Chambliss the winners for their respective races.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.