So was this man, until November, 1940.
Things did not go well.
Posted on 11/04/2008 4:28:58 PM PST by SJackson
The next US head of state will be a wartime president. Developments in the Middle East almost guarantee that either John McCain or Barack Obama will have to manage one or more wars involving the US or its allies in the region.
The challenges posed by the Middle East are legion: "fragile and reversible" security in Iraq; military fallout from a possible IDF strike on Iran's nuclear program; the destabilizing consequences of a nuclear breakout by the Islamic Republic; a new round of violence between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority - this time in the West Bank; an Israeli military intervention in Gaza to halt renewed rocket attacks, preempt a Hamas military buildup, or crush the nascent Hamas government there; and the possibility of a second Hizbullah-Israeli war.
Given these realities, the US must engage the region to an unprecedented extent to avert or deter those wars that are avoidable, and to prevail (or ensure the success of its allies) in those that prove inescapable.
The next administration's key challenge in Iraq will be to preserve and expand the security gains of the 2007 US military "surge," and to translate those gains into enduring political achievements through relatively free and fair elections in 2009.
Accomplishing this and preserving US influence, while gradually drawing down forces to deal with a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan, pose major challenges.
For the next few years, the potential for renewed violence in Iraq is high due to a number of unsettled issues: resentment from Sons of Iraq militias due to their exclusion from the country's security forces; the eventual return of Muqtada al-Sadr's Shi'ite Mahdi Army special groups from abroad; the lifting of the Mahdi Army's freeze on military operations; and tensions between Kurds and Arabs in Mosul, Kirkuk and Diyala provinces.
Preventing resurgent violence will require continued American engagement at the local, regional and national levels, and the use of available US leverage to forestall or contain outbreaks of violence.
This will not depend entirely on the size of the American military presence. In fact, the US will gain leverage through its ability to maintain working relations with all major political currents and parties in Iraq, including Sadrists; the credibility of threats to withhold military support at vital junctures in order to secure key US objectives; a willingness and ability to publicize credible evidence of Iranian interference in Iraq and of collaboration between Iran and prominent Iraqi politicians; and assisting emerging political forces, particularly those supportive of a continued US role in Iraq, such as the Awakening Councils, to secure a formal role in the Iraqi political system in forthcoming elections.
The last point could provide the basis for a blocking coalition in the Iraqi parliament involving the Awakening Councils, secular nationalists such as former interim prime minister Ayad Allawi, independents and perhaps under certain circumstances even the major Kurdish parties. This coalition could check Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's growing power or provide Maliki with the foundation for a new governing coalition if he desires to free himself of his dependence on the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq.
Iran: Two minutes to midnight?
At the current reported rate of processing, Iran might have enough low enriched uranium by late 2009 for its first bomb (although the uranium would require further enrichment and would have to go through several additional steps before it could be turned into a weapon).
Given its concerns about the threat and doubts about diplomacy, Israel might order a preventive strike before then on Teheran's nuclear installations. The next US administration must consider the possibility that Israel might act contrary to Washington's apparent wishes by striking at Iran's nuclear infrastructure, just as it did when it bombed Syria's nuclear reactor at al-Kibar in September 2007.
Accordingly, the next administration should prepare a public response that neither explicitly disavows nor identifies itself with the Israeli action. Washington should also be prepared to take measures to contain a violent Iranian response and to deter retaliatory strikes against US interests.
Iran's progress toward acquiring nuclear weapon capabilities is already transforming the regional security environment in ways inimical to US interests. Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and the Gulf Cooperative Council states have all indicated that they are considering building up their civilian nuclear infrastructure, a possible first step toward developing a weapons capability.
And Iran's acquisition of "the bomb," which could well occur during the tenure of the next American president, could profoundly destabilize the region, enhancing the potential for miscalculation and conflict.
The next administration should therefore exploit the "presidential honeymoon" and the favorable conditions created by lower oil prices (which are putting pressure on the Iranian economy) to place the highest priority on multilateral diplomatic efforts to resolve the standoff.
Although time is of the essence, the US should avoid public advances toward Iran prior to the country's June 2009 presidential elections because Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might claim credit for any diplomatic progress, thus increasing his electoral prospects.
As such, Washington should quietly approach intermediaries to sound out Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prior to the Islamic Republic's presidential elections to determine if there is any basis for serious, public contacts or negotiations in the immediate aftermath of the elections, and if Teheran would be willing to suspend enrichment for the duration of these talks.
Meanwhile, the US should once again try to marshal a broader coalition and wield bigger carrots and sticks in support of a new diplomatic initiative or, if diplomacy fails, to further ratchet up the pressure on Iran. Finally, if diplomacy fails, Washington needs to revisit its own military options and review plans for containing the political and military fallout from an Israeli preventive strike.
The US should also roll out plans for a regional security framework to contain and deter a nuclear Iran, which will make the point that acquiring nuclear weapons will harm, rather than help, the Islamic Republic's security.
Upon taking office, the next US administration may well find itself in the midst of a Palestinian political crisis, and perhaps even a new round of Palestinian civil violence. The term of PA President Mahmoud Abbas expires on January 9, and he has indicated that he plans to stay on for another year, basing his position on an amendment to the PA Elections Law that requires presidential and parliamentary elections to occur at the same time (the latter are not scheduled until January 2010).
Hamas, however, claims that according to the PA's Basic Law, the speaker of parliament should succeed Abbas when his term runs out. Although Hamas and the PA may find a way to resolve this matter peacefully by January 9, it is also possible that if Abbas does not step down, Hamas might engage in assassinations, kidnappings, or violent demonstrations to loosen the PA's grip in the West Bank.
Accordingly, the new US administration must be prepared to support PA and Israeli efforts to quash Hamas-inspired violence in the West Bank. Providing political support to the PA and Israel and bolstering US efforts to build a professional and effective Palestinian security force will be vital to keep Hamas at bay in the West Bank in the short-run, and to bolster PA influence in the long-run.
In addition, ongoing efforts to define the general parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian final-status agreement are still important, even if implementation of such an deal has to be deferred to some indefinite future date.
Back to Gaza?
Another Arab-Israeli war is a near certainty in the next four years. The current Israeli-Hamas cease-fire is unlikely to last indefinitely, and Israel will eventually reenter Gaza to remove the rocket threat or to dismantle Hamas's terror and governmental infrastructure.
The priority now is to continue to enhance the capacity of the PA's military and civilian institutions to prevent a Hamas takeover of the West Bank. This will also be important if the IDF does reenter Gaza to crush Hamas, since it would be desirable if Israel could then hand over security responsibilities to the PA prior to its withdrawal.
The reform of Fatah and the PA will be a protracted process, and there is no guarantee of success. But if there is to be peace, it will be the result of bottom-up efforts to rebuild Fatah and the PA and to restore some degree of trust between Israelis and Palestinians, as well as top-down efforts to tackle the major stumbling blocks to a final-status agreement.
Disengagement from the conflict, however, is not an option, because if the US is not actively laying the groundwork for peaceful coexistence between the two sides, Hamas and Iran will work to preclude such an outcome.
Hizbullah and Israel: Round two?
In Lebanon, Hizbullah, with the help of Syria and Iran, has rebuilt its rocket forces - it had 13,000 on the eve of 2006's Second Lebanon War and has more than 30,000 now - in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
Hizbullah also blames Israel for the February 2008 assassination of terror chief Imad Mughniyah in Damascus and has promised revenge, perhaps by kidnapping or killing senior Israeli security officials or politicians at home or overseas.
In addition, Hizbullah has indicated that it might challenge Israeli reconnaissance flights over Lebanon, and once again abduct Israeli soldiers along the border.
These developments suggest that another - even more destructive - war is possible. Senior Israeli military officials have threatened, in accordance with what they call the "Dahiyeh Doctrine" - after the suburbs of southern Beirut that were flattened by Israeli air power during the 2006 war - to wage a scorched earth campaign next time around.
In the event of another war, the US needs to coordinate with Israel better than it did during the last war so that the next campaign is much shorter and succeeds in significantly weakening Hizbullah and undermining the interests of its Syrian and Iranian patrons.
The next American president will face unprecedented challenges and dangers in the Middle East, with few good options and precious little time to waste. He will have to hit the ground running, since the US cannot afford a protracted transition between administrations.
Michael Eisenstadt is a senior fellow and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute.
High Volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel. or WOT [War on Terror]
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When you're at war, you get a wartime President. I'd look for a community organizer to fill the bill.
The next US president may not be able to fight a war if the following is true:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1954933468700958565&hl=es
So was this man, until November, 1940.
Things did not go well.
Socialist are pretty good at fighting wars. Wilson and FDR.
Just expect to be interned if you disagree.
It’s an interesting point to consider. Carter was not a wartime president simply because he refused to stand up to any aggression with anything more than pointless sanctions. I think it is likely that if Obama wins our enemies will be emboldened and Obama will do nothing but talk. If McCain wins our enemies will be considerably more careful since they will believe, accurately, he won’t sit around and do nothing.
Yes, things may or may not go well.
But Barak talks so well. Should he win, I’m confident he’ll charm our enemies. For America’s sake, he shouldn’t have the chance.
Here is just a very tiny sampler of what I have looked at ON THE INTERNET recently:
News.SKY.com/SkyNews: "BIO TERROR 'NEXT THREAT' FOR US" by Mark White (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Nuclear and biological terrorism is the emerging threat the next US President should focus on, the US security chief has told Sky News. In an exclusive interview, homeland security secretary Michael Chertoff said sources of radioactive and biological materials must be properly secured "at all costs". He warned terrorists are actively seeking to acquire such materials.") (October 31, 20082:43 pm UK) (Note: This url may expire.)
BROWNSVILLE HERALD.com: McCallen - "FBI: ZETAS ARMING FOR CONFRONTATION U.S. AUTHORITIES" by Jeremy Roebuck, The Monitor (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Recent U.S. efforts to disrupt drug smuggling routes through the Rio Grande Valley have prompted threats of retaliation against authorities on this side of the river, according to an FBI intelligence report.") (October 29, 2008, 9:05 am) (Read More...)
THE BULLETPROOF BLOG.com: "SHOPPERS ADVISED ABOUT DEADLY MALL ATTACKS" (SNIPPET: "In a joint effort between U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security and Mall retail associations, mall employees and shoppers are being advised on how to protect themselves against assailants armed with guns.") (October 26, 2008) (Read More...)
CampaignSpot.NATIONAL REVIEW.com - blog: "DEATH THREATS SENT TO POLLSTER" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "After releasing this morning's numbers showing McCain ahead in Ohio and Florida, the Strategic Vision polling company received several death threats through the contact e-mail on the company's web site.") (October 24, 2008, 3:36 pm) (Read More...)
NY DAILY NEWS.com - blog: "OSAMA BIN LADEN WANTS A VOTE, SO BEWARE A LATE OCTOBER SURPRISE" by William Bratton & R.P. Eddy (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "State and local police, as well as commercial security officials, should be especially vigilant in guarding high-value financial sites. Preparations to prevent car- or truck-borne bombs should be enhanced and searches of building entrants should be increased, and such searches should be random or based on behavioral recognition.") (October 22, 2008, 1:03 am) (Read More...)
JPOST.com - THE JERUSALEM POST: "IRANIAN OFFICIAL CALLS FOR ATTACK ON UK" by Jonny Paul, Jerusalem Post Correspondent in London (ARTICLE SNIPPET: ""The most appropriate means of deterrence that Iran has, in addition to a retaliatory operation in the [Gulf] region, is to take action against London," Karimi said.") (Updated October 26, 2008, 1:28) (Read More...)
RECORD ONLINE.com: West Point - "WEST POINT REPORTS THEFT OF ITEMS TOTALING $400K; REWARD OFFERED" by Alexa James (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The stolen goods included 330 Motorola Portable Astro Digital XTS 5000 radios, worth $1,142 each, and about 600 Ni-Cad batteries worth $87 each.") (October 16, 2008) (Read More...)
ADNKRONOS.com (AKI): Cairo - "EGYPT: SUNNI SCHOLARS SANCTION 'ELECTRONIC JIHAD'" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The religious edict (fatwa) issued by a committee from the highest authority in Sunni Islam, Egypt's Al-Azhar University in Cairo, was published on the website of the Islamist Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood movement on Thursday." ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The Muslim Brotherhood praised the fatwa, which comes in response to dozens of questions from radicals asking to be allowed to destroy Israeli and United States websites.") (October 16, 2008) (Read More...)
THE SOUTHERN.com: West City - "STOLEN TRUCK TRAILER WAS FILLED WITH COFFEE CREAMER" by Becky Malkovich (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "An Internet search revealed dozens of Web sites extolling the virtues of coffee creamer as an explosive and included several videos displaying its volatility.") (October 13, 2008, 11:18 pm CDT) (Read More...)
US DOJ.gov/opa - Press Release: "Statement of Brian Roehrkasse, Director of Public Affairs, on Today's District Court Decision Ordering Release of the Uighurs Detained at Guantanamo Bay" (PRESS RELEASE SNIPPET: ""Today, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ordered that 17 Uighurs detained at Guantanamo Bay -- individuals who have admitted to receiving weapons training at camps in Afghanistan -- be released into the United States. Today's ruling presents serious national security and separation of powers concerns and raises unprecedented legal issues."" (October 7, 2008) (Read More...)
ISRAEL NATIONAL NEWS.com: "HAMAS OFFERING ONLINE COURSES IN PRACTICAL JIHAD" by Nissan Ratzlav-Katz (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "The Islamist Hamas terrorist organization has initiated an online course in explosives, military weapons and tactics for would-be jihad fighters. Aimed at the population of the Palestinian Authority, the course is called "Get Ready" and is designed to prepare the population for war with Israel.") (Published October 7, 2008, 5:13 pm) (Read More...)
JPOST.com - THE JERUSALEM POST: "JEWISH AGENCY UPGRADES SECURITY WORLDWIDE AHEAD OF YOM KIPPUR" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Security has been upgraded in Jewish Agency institutions worldwide ahead of Yom Kippur, a day on which a record number of Jews congregate in synagogues and community centers around the world for prayer.") (October 7, 2008, 23:08) (Read More...)
DeepBackground.MSNBC.msn.com: "FBI WARNS OF POTENTIAL TERROR ATTACKS ON PUBLIC BUILDINGS" by Jim Popkin (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Saudi security forces killed al-Ayeeri in 2003. The Audiotape: The FBI and DHS said al-Ayeeri's audiotape walks potential suicide bombers through the following scenario:") (October 6, 2008, 5:54 pm ET) (Read More...)
INTERNET-HAGANAH.com: ""SHEMA YISRAEL"" (COMMENTARY SNIPPET: "This led Tim to wonder if my view of things was perhaps the result of the many death threats I have received. The short answer is "no." My own experience has been quite positive. While death threats are an annoyance, they also have the effect of validating the worth of the work I do.") (October 4, 2008) (Read More...)
TIMESONLINE.co.uk - SUNDAY TIMES: "PALMTOP COMPUTER STOLEN FROM OPEN WINDOW IN MI5 HIDEOUT" by Dwayne Senior (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "A burglar who climbed into the property in Greater Manchester on Sunday night got away with the terminal which contained highly sensitive information about national security." (October 2, 2008) (Read More...)
THE SUN.co.uk: "FOR SALE: SECOND HAND CAMERA, GOOD CONDITION, CONTAINS TOP SECRET MI6 TERRORIST RECORDS AND PICS" by Anthony France, Simon Hughes and Andy Crick (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Alongside them were photos of rocket launchers and missiles which spooks believe Iran is supplying to Osama Bin Laden's henchmen in Iraq.") (Published September 30, 2008) (Read More...)
NY SUN.com: Washington - "BIN LADEN'S SON MAKES RETURN TO PAKISTAN Could Signal a New Phase of Iran's Relationships with Al Qaeda" by Eli Lake (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Al Qaeda is consolidating its leadership in the territory under its control in Pakistan. Osama bin Laden's son and heir apparent, Sa`ad bin Laden, has returned to Pakistan from his safe haven in Iran, according to messages posted on a Qaeda jihad Web forum known as al-Hesbah.") (September 29, 2008) (Read More...)
That video is creepy! I would think that the rest of the world would be hurt as well.
“Should he win, I’m confident he’ll charm our enemies.”
No doubt the same way Hitler charmed Neville “peace in our time” Chamberlain.
If Obama wins tonight, Israel is going to settle some scores quickly before he is inaugurated.
Every President from here on out will be a wartime leader. The War on Terror has no end. We need to think about that in future elections.
“Why the next US president will be a wartime leader...”
...uh, because we’re still at war in Iraq and Afghanistan?
Weighing out the implications, it looks like it will be amateur hour over the next four years in every facet of policy, both foreign and domestic.
If I was in a decision-making capacity in Israel, I'd be burning the mid-night oil and lining up some hot action.
Gaza was a good start.
Eisenstadt’s on drugs, if he thinks this incoming regime will do anything with conflicts but run from them.
It will concentrate on instituting at home the policies that make Zimbabwe the economic powerhouse that it is.
Israelis, you’ve just lost Jerusalem because you’ve lost US support for holding Jerusalem. Has that sunk in yet? Obama’s policy is that every inch of land taken in ‘67 is Arab land, now and evermore. That means all of East Jerusalem.
You may well have just lost Israel. For every hopeful Jew writing that it doesn’t matter to Israel who’s the US president, there’s a Rashid Khalidi who has Obama’s ear, and thinks the only problem with the Final Solution was its lack of finality.
How long can the IDF hold the line without arms, ammunition, and logistical support from the USA? We’re going to find out. Keep whistling, Mr Eisenstadt; that’s not a graveyard you’re whistling past, but a mass grave.
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
Bill Clinton was a wartime president. He just forgot to fight back.
Maybe he’ll send ACORN to the front lines.
I have friends who have friends
With an Obama victory, we can expect Israel to nuke Iran, it is their last chance to have a friendly president to support them in war against Iran
This warning e-mail came from a military veteran not known to be alarmist, albeit concerned
It is my own personal belief that Israel will strike while they have a friendly president to support them. Obama has made it plain, and even said that he would support the Muslims.
I believe the nature of this e-mail is related to that threat.
My prediction: Israel will attack Iran's nuke plants to delay their nuke arm buildup. Iran will retaliate against American targets, either through a ground based nuke/dirty bomb/bio weapon, or through a sea based missile that employs an EMP weapon.
Stock up on drinking water and canned goods immediately, at least you will have your cubboards filled if I am wrong.
Just Rec this and trust the source....
Keep your eyes and ears open on this.
I just got off the phone with my daughter. Her best friend is an I.S. in the Air Force and she said that she told her to be ready to leave the east coast and head west the next time she calls her. That's exactly how she put it.
Holly told me that she was told that something really big is in the works, but that was all she could comment on about it. You all know i wouldn't joke about this. That's all i know. I know it's not a lot of information, but when your working in intelligence in the military you're going out on a limb just passing on this limited amount of intel.
Pass this on to all of your contacts.
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