Allard was a man of his word. Unlike others who say they will serve only a limited time, he actually meant it. Unfortunately it was bad for the party and the country. You think he could have won again? With the tide in CO and the rest of the country I think he might have gone down. His margin in ‘02 was fairly narrow in a good Republican year. I guess Domenici and Warner would have been favored, even at their advanced ages, but you never know. Two years ago I don’t think anyone thought Dole, Chambliss, or McConnell would be in close races.
If any of those old guys (including Stevens ) had been smart and retired in ‘02, or ‘96, there was a good chance they could have been succeeded by other Republicans. Instead they stayed way past their prime and had to quit in the worst year for the GOP. What a disaster.
It is hard to say. The Dems had “first tier” challengers in the states you mention. If the incumbents had run again, they may have passed on the challenge.
Martin in GA was considered a Second Tier candidate for example... if a First Tier Georgia Democrat took up the challenge, Chambliss may have been toast.
In 2010, the GOP will be defending more seats than Dems... so it will be an uphill fight again. On the other hand, there will be open contests in DE and IL. If Obama does poorly, a backlash against Obama and Biden’s appointed successors would be likely.