Everyone is interpreting these recount numbers incorrectly.
Franken’s gains are NOT the result of new votes being “found” - there are a trivial number of “undervotes” being found. Virtually all of the changes in the counts are a result of votes being temporarily removed from the tallies of both Coleman and Franken due to challenges.
It’s just that Coleman is having more votes “removed” than Franken - probably almost entirely due to Franken challenges. When a ballot is challenged, it is temporarily removed from the count. So the changes in the official tallies don’t really mean too much - it’s all about the final dispensation of the challenged ballots which have been removed from the count temporarily.
Here are the numbers. So far, Coleman’s official vote count has decreased by 603 votes, and Franken’s official vote count has decreased by 535 votes for a net “gain” to Franken of 68 votes. (215 lead - 68 Franken gain = 147 current Coleman lead)
However, at the same time, Coleman has challenged 860 ballots and Franken has challenged 868 ballots. All of these have been temporarily removed from the counts.
When the recount is over, all of the challenged ballots will be reviewed by the canvassing board and decisions made.
One should assume that if a candidate challenges a ballot, it’s because it otherwise would have been interpreted in a way unfavorable to that candidate.
Therefore, whoever has the MOST challenges is likely to do WORSE with the challenged ballots. i.e., chances are that most of the Franken challenges will go to Coleman, and that most of the Coleman challenges will go to Franken.
Right now, having done all the math, I would rather be sitting in Coleman’s position than Franken’s. If trends hold, Coleman will end the recount with a lead of 25-75 votes (my over-under is 50), with most of the challenges having been made by Franken.
Since most challenges will have been made by Franken, the presumption mustt be that they will break for Coleman, unless Coleman has been challenging ballots on significantly more liberal and frivolous grounds than Franken.
This is unlikely, therefore Franken’s lead will probably not decrease.
I predict a Coleman win by 50 votes.
Also, the process seems to be running very fairly and smoothly, so let’s not behave like moonbats and truthers with their conspiracy theories. Let’s let these people do their jobs. Everyone is being watched closely and I expect a very fair result.
I like specific and bold predictions like this. You're saying that you expect Coleman to win by 50 votes with a standard deviation of 12.5.
I'm not nearly as bold as you. I'd increase that standard deviation. I'm also increasing my Coleman margin.
Coleman by 130 with a standard deviation of 35.
well stated, except most likely we won’t be able to count on the appeal boards doing a fair job.