The movies seem to be as firm as something can be this far ahead of time. It is not scheduled for filming to start until 2010, with main filming to run for over a year, followed by the very extensive special effects and other post production work. Theoretical release dates are Christmas 2011 and Christmas 2012. The theories about the second film are still fuzzy, but likely it will be set in the period between 'The Hobbit' and 'The Fellowship of the Ring'.
I’m a bit glad they are taking their time. There’s really no reason to rush it, since Jackson did so well on LOTR and the Hobbit is somewhat connected, but can be outside it as well.
I’d like to see Jackson and Del Toro work together on it, I think they’d make a fantastic prequel.