IBD/TIPP Takes Top Honors Again

IBD Editorials ^ | December 15, 2008

[Kaslin]

Election: Now that the '08 tally is official, we note that for the second election in a row, the IBD/TIPP Poll not only came closest to the final margin, but was right on the money — tantamount to hitting a bullet with a bullet.

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Results certified over the weekend show Barack Obama got 52.9% of the popular vote vs. 45.7% for John McCain. The difference — 7.2 percentage points — is exactly what IBD/TIPP predicted just hours before polls opened Nov. 4.

It can take as long as a month and a half for states to arrive at their final tallies. California, for example, didn't finish its tabulation until Saturday. The spread can change quite a bit over that period. For every million votes counted, the gap was expanding by one-tenth of a percentage point.

The popular vote margin the morning after the election was 6.0 — putting the Rasmussen organization closest at that point. But it widened steadily in the last six weeks.

The table below shows how the other polling organizations did. Tracking polls, such as IBD/TIPP's, poll every day and typically average results over a three-day period. Nontracking polls survey less frequently.

In all, more than 18 national polls followed this year's presidential race, the most ever.

[LS]

The guy with the real egg on his face was Dickie Morris (again) who said that the undecideds were breaking 7:1 in favor of McCain-—when it was almost the exact opposite.

[Fishrrman]

wardaddy wrote:
“boy talk about crow to pass around here served cold....lol
7 plus points....even I wouldn’t have believed that”

Source for the following:
2008 exit poll data, CNN; “Going after the Faith-Based Vote”, AP, 11/6/08)

“Forty three percent of whites voted for Mr. Obama, and the wide margins he won among blacks (95%), Hispanics (66%), Asians (61%), Jews (81%) and voters under 30 (66%), put him over the top.

“Mr. McCain received 55% of the white vote, 65% of the white Protestant vote, 52% of the white Catholic vote, 74% of the Evangelical vote, 57% of white men and 53% of white women — and lost anyway. Until recently that level of support would have guaranteed victory. If Mr. Obama can hold his multiracial coalition together, the next Republican candidate will need close to 60% of the white vote to stay in the race.”

Just some numbers to consider.
Nothing more.

- John

[LadyNavyVet]

“...even though many here viciously eschewed such open speculating.”

I hear ya. I had everything from my motivations to my parentage impugned because I posted that if Rasmussen said Obama was going to win, Obama was going to win.

Your point about Ras vs. TIPP is right on. Ras’ final prediction is his final poll result, no sauce applied, unlike almost all the others, who make a final prediction that may be several points off their final poll.

You are correct that the aggregate averages of the polls were highly accurate in the last several elections. But, in four years, if the pollsters don’t have the Pubbie winning, the same Freepers will come out of the woodwork asserting that ALL the polls are ALWAYS wrong and skewed toward the Dems, even when confronted with hard evidence to the contrary. Such vicious, widespread, galloping mendacity is why I’m mostly a lurker these days.

[wardaddy]

Demographics is destiny and fools like McCain and many here with their kumbaya culture is relative outlook basically have given away our farm.

[wardaddy]

you’re right

this past election taught me that many freepers are blowhards with a poor grasp of the facts and little capacity for rational thought, behave as chat room bullies and aren’t worth spitting on

we’re about 1/3rd loudmouths, 1/3rd decent folks and 1/3 ambivalent types

this forum brings out the best and worst in folks

and I’m not without guilt myself at times

[NYC Republican]

The truth is... many of the more "moderate conservatives" (is there such a thing, did I just create one?), were banned earlier this year, just for saying good things about Giuliani --- who would have been a FAR better candidate than that a$$hat McCain.

That left a disproportionate number of radical loons here...

I can't tell you how often I got blasted for saying what I believed... My final prediction was 52-46 for Zero, so... I was just about spot on...

I disagree about 4 years from now... There's NO way that the polls can be discounted yet again, and FReepers that do, will be laughed off the forum... I'll lead the charge.

[kesg]

Guliani was also my first choice. He would have been a much stronger candidate than McCain. During the general election campaign, he was also the only McCain surrogate that I thought was genuinely effective on the screaming head shows.

And, ahem, I will be joining you with great enthusiasm in response to people who try to discount the polls next time around.

[NYC Republican]

All I can say is, fellow FReepers CAN’T be dumb enough to use the same lame discounting methods (weekend polls, don’t look at the polls-look at where the candidates go, bias, etc)... at least, I hope not

[NYC Republican]

I knew we were done, when the Dems STRATEGICALLY dumbed the housing fiasco on us, BETWEEN the GOP convention, and the election... and that old fool, McCain did NOTHING and said NOTHING...

What a coincidence, on the timing, huh?

[kesg]

You won’t see it from me. I can’t speak for anyone else, of course. :)

[kesg]

I also found the timing of that whole mess to be highly suspicious.