Perfect Space Storm Could be Catastrophic on Earth, Study Concludes

A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm.

Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.

The prediction is based in part on major solar storm in 1859 caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires. It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more is at risk.

"A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions," the researchers conclude.

When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth. The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm -- the type expected to occur about once a century -- could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.

"Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning,

I think I would have bought an electric generator before I went with a hand pump. I presume your well isn't that deep?

My survival plan for Y2K was to make a list of all my anti-gun neighbors who kept bragging about all their preparations, and then buy some weapons. :-)

I read a cheesy book called “Life as we knew it” which postulated the moon getting much closer to earth and in a radical orbit that caused climate changes and tidal waves and knocked out the electric grid. It chronicled one girl and her family and their struggle to survive until the government could save them, which realistically took much longer than most people could survive.

My old house had a 30-foot-deep dug well, with a 3-foot casing, so we could actually crawl down into it to do the plumbing work (pump was a surface pump located IN my basement with two pipes down the well with a venturi system). Water quality was always poor though.

When I hooked to county water, I kept my well operational, and hooked it up so it ran the outdoor faucets (providing water for grass watering). Figured I’d have water if the county water got shut off, although I could only pump solid for 40 minutes before the well would run too low (it was slow AND bad quality).

I’ve thought about spending a good chunk of money for a natural gas generator — my utility company will deliver and install it, with all the permits and hookup automatic cutovers for about $7000 for a system that would run my entire house.

Of course, if the natural gas was turned off with the electricity, I’d need another source of gas, but it was a sweat generator.

I have a Prius, and some people have rigged their Priuses so they can serve as house generators — you have to hack into the main battery lines because the 12-volt circuit is very low wattage, but the big battery and the gas generator can do thousands of watts easily. Then I’d just need a supply of gasoline. The engine only turns on when the battery needs charging, so it truly is a reasonable emergency generator solution. But I don’t want to void my car warranty.

My family has a 2-month supply of food we carry on our persons at all times. :-) Hint: Think Richard from Survivor. :-)

My family has a 2-month supply of food we carry on our persons at all times

Yep - bug out bags should be in every home...along with 'training.'

Family camping trips to learn skills would be fun AND could, one day, prove to be vital.

Knowing which 'wild' foods are edible, how to fish, how to build shelters, how to catch-skin-cook a rabbit. How to make emergency snowshoes, how to shoot 'quiet' bows and arrows - etc etc.

All skills for fun and recreation - or emergencies.

I'd rather live free in the forest than in a city mansion housing many Plebeians and a BLOCK BOSS.

Where Is Solar Cycle 24 Headed?

by Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA

WorldRadio Propagation columnist and frequent contributor to ham radio publications, Carl contributed this short article on the much-anticipated and long-awaited Cycle 24. Isn’t this better than another exhortation to take on New Year’s resolutions? Enjoy! - 73, Ward N0AX

There are more than 50 predictions for Cycle 24 in the scientific community. These predictions are based on a variety of models (precursor, neural network, spectral, and others), and range from a low smoothed sunspot number of 40 to a high smoothed sunspot number of 185. With so many predictions, it’s obvious that our understanding of the physical processes in the Sun that make solar cycles is lacking. Hopefully scientists will gain additional knowledge when Cycle 24 is over to better forecast future cycles.

But before we even think about where Cycle 24 is headed, we need to emerge from the current solar minimum period. Looking at all historical data tells us that the average duration at solar minimum (based on my definition of the number of months when the smoothed sunspot number is below 20) is around 37 months.
The length of solar minima since Cycle 1.

Cycle 23 descended through a smoothed sunspot number of 20 in February 2006 and the latest data indicates a smoothed sunspot number of around 5 for June 2008, so at the present time we’re just approaching the average duration of a solar minimum period. Whoa, just approaching the average - that’s depressing, isn’t it?

The data also tells us that there are eight other solar minimum periods that are longer than what we’re experiencing. Thus we have quite a way to go before this solar minimum period sets any record (by the way, the record is 96 months for the period between Cycle 5 and Cycle 6 based on my definition). It’s interesting to note that the solar minimum periods in our lifetime (in fact, beginning with the minimum between Cycles 17 and 18) have been around 24 months - much less than the historical average. So we’ve been spoiled by shorter than average solar minimum periods, and when something approaching the average comes along we naturally wonder if it’s unusual. Based on all historical data, we are not experiencing anything unusual.
The observed trend relating inter-cycle minimum length to intensity of the following cycle.

Another interesting fact that comes out of the historical data is the correlation between the length of the solar minimum period and the maximum smoothed sunspot number of the next cycle. It shows a trend of smaller cycles following longer solar minimum periods.

If this solar minimum period ends up around the average of 37 months (where it appears to be headed), then it suggests that Cycle 24 is headed towards being an average (or even below average) cycle. This certainly contradicts the very high smoothed sunspot number predictions made by several scientists (for example, by Dr. Dikpati at The University Corporation of Atmospheric Research). But note that we only have 22 data points, which is a very small sample of a process that has likely been going on for thousands of years. So anything could happen - we’ll just have to wait and see what Cycle 24 does.

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