Indeed He did, full well knowing the outcome. From our perspective, it is chance. God knew the result.
He took a chance on mankind. He was frequently frustrated with our free will and his lack of control so had to resort to drastic measures like kicking man out of the garden of Eden and wiping them off the face of the earth a few times, destroying cities and civilizations and such.
Still, He knew this would happen. After Adam sinned, He set the plan of redemption in motion.
Our earth is full of chance. Like when a tornado or fire kills a bunch of innocent children.
Do not think of this as chance from God's perspective. If you build your house in the shadow of a volcano, do not complain when lava overtakes it. Do not hold God accountable for our use (or misuse) of free will.
Why didn't God just make man good and without any programming errors he had to eliminate every few generations by destroying most of living man on earth?