My bet is the Court will put on its two faced "selective incorporation doctrine" and say that the right of the States to form an orderly militia says no, just like they did with Kelo.
The Heller decision pretty much rules out that thinking. Heller makes plain that the protection of the Second Amendment is not limited to militia purposes.
The question will revolve around whether the intentions of those who ratified the Fourteenth Amendment included protecting the right of freed slaves to keep and bear arms to protect themselves. The timing of the passage of the Fourteenth, immediately after the Thirteenth, which ended slavery, is not just an historical coincidence. The Supreme Court, as it is presently constituted, will recognize that. No state will retain the power to infringe the right to keep and bear arms.