Why There Should Be More Oil Speculation, Not Less

time ^

[zeestephen]

Apparently, I don't understand the price of oil.

I glanced at OIX before I wrote my note, and it peaked in mid-May.

Also scanned a FT article on SemGroup’s bankruptcy, which said oil closed at $125 after Sem’s announcement.

Now looking at WTI and Brent and both peaked in mid-June according to my charts.

The spot price chart at CNBC won't load, so no comment on that.

So, if I goofed, I goofed.

My thesis on speculators still stands.

You can never have a speculator who is making money without an equal and opposite speculator who is losing money.

To my eye, that means dramatic price swings in commodities always have some relationship to real supply and demand.

I find it ironic and humorous that American farmers require federal price supports because speculators drive prices down, while on the other hand consumers must be protected from oil speculators because they drive prices up.

Seems like smart speculators would do the exact opposite, drive farm prices up and oil prices down, thus, everyone would be happy, speculators would get rich, and there would be no investigations or lawsuits.

[zeestephen]

Found “OIL.”

You are correct.

July 11 peak.

My mistake.