That doesn’t seem likely.
I can’t be bothered with this news — I’m too happy celebrating my marriage to my wife: Morgan Fairchild.
How do we arrive at numbers for China’s economy? Surely we don’t take their word for it, do we? Of course we accept US inflation numbers that exclude food and fuel, and we all know the unemployment numbers are drastically cooked, so maybe anything goes.
I’m calling BS on this, too.
China can say anything they want and who is going to prove them otherwise.
So an export economy in the midst of a worldwide recession somehow has a 7.9% growth rate? BS or Germany would love to know it’s secret, as would SK, Taiwan and Japan.
Chi-Com banks are loaning trillions of yuan as part of the stimulus. What about them non-performing loans that worry economists?
A couple of months ago I re-allocated my retirement funds and went 70% Asian/emerging markets. My broker, didn’t say I was crazy, but said, “You do know this is upside down of what everyone else does.” BTW, this is for new investments, my old stuff is where it has been for the last few years. I think that barring a massive Asian land war or something, that India and China are going to start seeing a rising middle class, and that much of their growth will be spurred by this consumer market. I’m not optimistic about US business right now.
Chinese GDP A Case Of 'Fake It ‘Til You Make It'
China’s GDP figures might show that the world’s third-largest economy is coming out of its funk. But few economists will take Thursday’s report at face value. While their caution is wise, the Middle Kingdom probably is recovering – tentatively.
By John Foley, breakingviews.com
Published: 3:16PM BST 15 Jul 2009
The country’s leadership has set a target of 8pc growth for 2009. Most economists believe the magic number will be hit, as do 88pc of investors in China, according to an ING survey. Reported growth in the first quarter was 6.1pc, and a 7.1pc “print” is expected for the second quarter, followed by above-trend growth in the second half.
But the GDP growth rate in China is too important a number politically to be reliable. From the bottom to the top of the data chain, everyone has a reason to report numbers that look politically correct. As economist Charles Goodhart pointed out, when leaders turn a measurement into a target, it stops being a good measurement.
Still, simpler indicators also point to recovery. Car sales rose 37pc in June. Electricity consumption rose 3.7pc, reversing May’s decline. Production of steel, diesel, speciality chemicals and even fridges are all back at pre-downturn levels. Exports are still falling, but a slower fall in imports suggests China's domestic consumption is recovering faster than that of its trade partners.
[snip]
and 2 new coal plants go online every week in China.
See an energy/production correlation?
Here’s an article and thread that I think has a good grasp on the Chinese economy and, more particularly, their balance of payments. There are a variety of views, so you may reach your own conclusions: http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/07/13/will-the-chinese-keep-saving/#more-5906