Posted on 01/15/2010 1:27:51 PM PST by Maelstorm
Hotline's Reid Wilson has a good examination of the risks involved in the President's decision to make a last minute campaign stop for Martha Coakley:
Given how much the costs of an actual loss outweigh the costs of a perceived loss, Dem strategists are confused about why the WH has not set an event, even with VP Biden, in the race's crucial final days.
But, in reality, the situation is a lot worse for Dems than it appears. According to strategists familiar with internal polls conducted for Coakley's campaign, the consequences of Obama's visit could produce a net-negative effect on Coakley's campaign.
Obama has a net favorable rating in MA, according to public and private polls. A Suffolk Univ. poll out today shows 55% of MA voters viewing him favorably, while just 35% see him unfavorably. But the intensity of voters who view him unfavorably, or who disapprove of his job performance, is so high that an appearance with Coakley could bring out more GOPers ready to vote for Brown than it could Dems set on their nominee.
"Obama is radioactive in polls," said one senior Dem operative who has seen the campaign's internal numbers. "Every time they dropped his name in a poll, it was awful. So you just can't take those kinds of chances."
There are other considerations too. Obama has moved quickly to address the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Haiti, and combined with the WH's stated focus on creating jobs to turn around the economy, he risks the appearance of putting politics at the fore at an inopportune time.
Read the whole thing. The president's appearence does have the odor of panic surrounding it, but one wonders how skewed the risk is for the president. Up until his announcement today that he was campaiging for Coakley, it seemed as if the Democratic establishment was already trying to create daylight between Obama and a potential Coakley loss.
Much of his leadership ability rests on his personal appeal. That appeal has come up short in two notable campaigns already. However, it was one thing to campaign on behalf candidates who lost in purple states such as New Jersey and Virgina. But Massachusetts? Even if Coakley wins, it's hard to imagine how much credit the president gets for eeking out a race in a state where Democrats out number Republicans three to one. And it would be quite another if he got his imprimatur all over the race in deep blue Massachusetts and then lost. He'd go from being radioactive to political Chernobyl as far as Democrats are concerned.
It's understandable that health care reform and much of Obama's domestic agenda is on the line and the president would want to fight for that, but it's far from certain he can have a positive outcome of the race (and he may even be a net negative for Coakley). The president might want to consider that it's worth even preserving the illusion he has some political capital rather than risking it all quite publicly and for naught.
[He’d go from being radioactive to political Chernobyl ]
I’m voting Chernobyl myself.
I’m just glad he took the bait.
Love it. Our real source of global warming. How is he going to deal with himself?
EPIC F’n FAIL coming soon to the Bay State in the form of a light skinned Kenyan with negro dialect (if he chooses)
YES HE CAN fail bigtime!
Obama’s administration is going to end early because of his ego. He has believed his own hype and that is why he is where he is now.
It can’t get any better than this. It truly shows that God has a sense of humor. His pride will not let him not go. He will make this into a national race.
This election is Obama’s last stand.
Political tin ear. He gets nothing from this, Brown wins by 5 and he’s the Grim Reaper in Campaign 2010.
Odor? That's one way of putting it. Stench is another. Rancid and Rank as well. Simply putrid. Absolutely Feculent.
Obama doesn't go and Coakley wins = no problem
Obama goes and Coakley wins = no problem
Obama goes and Coakley loses = no problem*
Obama doesn't go and Coakley loses = problem**
*no problem since Coakley was behind in the polls before he went.
**problem because it will be argued that he could have changed the outcome but failed to go.
obama may be popular with many Mass Democrats, but I really don’t think him campaigning for Coakley is going to be that much help. because even Mass Demos know, when the polls close, if they vote for Coakley based on Obama, they’ll be stuck with her for the length of her term, and Obama will be back in D.C. before Sasha and Malias’ bedtime that night.
The problem is if he wins by 5% then he will lose by ten. if he wins by 15% he will lose the recount. If he wins the recount ... nevermind, they won’t let that happen again.
Epic Fail..... mmm mmm mmm
Massachusetts doesn’t have the machine in place like other states because they have not had to have it. This is why there is so much panic and they are throwing money at it as an air war and then sending Obama, Biden and Clinton.
These guys are in huge trouble. It will be like NJ. Brown by 5%.
Not his last but it aint going to be pretty if Brown wins. It won’t be long till a lot of those Democrats who didn’t like him and supported Hillary start rumbling. The political sharks will respond to blood in the water. He is expecting the whole party to walk off a cliff with him. He is singlehandidly destorying the Democrat Party. I didn’t think anyone could one up Bill Clinton and Hillary in that respect but he is. This political environment makes 1994 looks pleasant for Democrats. They have did to themselves what I’ve complained over and over again that the Republicans fail to do and that is expose liberals for what they are. Instead they have openned their proverbial trentcoat exposing their radical liberal agenda for all to see.
We can hope, it sure would be history making.
Keep talking BO/BS!
It will be a problem if she loses by double digits after he comes after being only down 4 points.
just tried to donate to Brown’s campaign. said my card number was no good. I wonder what’s up?
just tried to donate to Brown’s campaign. said my card number was no good. I wonder what’s up?
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