Mostly agree with this analysis.
>>>”Unlike the religious leaders of Iran, the Revolutionary Guards lack moral and religious values, with the exception of one very deep religious belief: that they are the messengers of the Mahdi, the vanguard of the messiah...”
Not Exactly.
The main issue for IRI’s hardliners and reformists is Not whether the Islamic Regime should stay or go.
The main dispute/disagreement is HOW (the approach) taken to keep the Islamic Regime & Revolution in power, and prolong its existence:
a) thru IRGC
b) thru a so-called Religious [Islamic] Democracy
c) a combination of above - both in IRI’s domestic as well as foreign policies.
Either way, IRGC will continue to play a significant role in Regime’s domestic & foreign policies. It’s the *balance* that is being disputed/questioned.
The article/analysis below is recommended reading. It was written 2 days after Ahmadinejads first term inauguration in 2005, and still, largely, holds true about IRGC’s core mandate per IRI’s Constitution:
Iran: Defending The Islamic Revolution — The Corps Of The Matter
http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1060431.html
>>>” As someone who closely follows Iranian political affairs, I would say that at least 60 percent of Iranians are very much against the regime. (Others say the figure is 70-80 percent.) Two groups still support the regime: deeply religious people in poor, rural areas, and those who depend on the salary, pension, and other economic advantages the regime affords them. The big question is whether the regime will succeed in stifling the protest movement through suppression and arrests.”
At least, 60% of Iranians may be very much against the regime (out of a population of approx. 75 million).
BUT, so far not even 20% of those against the Regime, have shown any visible protests against the Regime, particularly inside & throughout Iran.
Why? Maybe one or more of the following, to name a few:
- Extreme force used by the Regime
- Intense propaganda by IRI to instill fear in the populace (Rigi’s recent “capture” & his forced confession on TV is just one example)
- Lack of overall planning & organization
- Lack of Leadership (outside IRI’s reformists such as Karroubi/Moussavi, who aren’t interested in seeing IRI lose power)
- Lack of an alternative ideology and/or government, to which most of those against IRI would agree
- A distinct lack of *practical* and meaningful support from the international community & especially governments (in contrast to amount of support Palestinians receive from even ordinary people outside Iran). We can say this really amounts to appeasement of IRI.
So far, it seems Western gov’ts have not had the will, nor the knowhow to stop IRI even in matters (nuclear weapons) that may, in the future, threaten the security of their own citizens & the international community.
So, I do wonder if these gov’ts really care about human rights, democracy or freedom of Iranians!