Alright, well I helped you out. I doubt many people are following “The Fish” for their politics though, LOL.
What are the poll numbers looking like in Hawaii right now? From what I see, a early 2010 poll from the national polling firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Research found that Hannemann takes 41 percent to Aiona’s 35 percent, with 24 percent undecided.
Aside from that Mason-Dixon you mention, there haven't been any reputable polls taken. We have a special election coming up to fill the seat vacated by Democrat ex-Congressman Neil Abercrombie, who quit to run for governor. That special election to fill his seat features Hawaii's version of Scott Brown - strong fiscal conservative - against two liberal Democrats. I think it will be a real indicator of how much the mainland Independents' dissatisfaction with Obama and his policies (and anyone connected to him) has traversed the Pacific to Hawaii.
Hawaii remains, anecdotally, still infatuated with Obama b/c of his connection to Hawaii (although that connection is more exaggerated by Hawaii than Obama -- Hawaii is always desperate to have anyone connected to it make a splash on the mainland).
Getting back to your question, I think Duke's focus on grassroots and emphasis on getting out a very motivated voter base will be the difference, as well as attracting Independent voters who favor his approach to government: limited, common-sense, transparency, integrity.