Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (March 24, 2010: Dear Reader at -11)

Rasmussen ^ | 03/24/10 | Rasmussen

[SoFloFreeper]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 31% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11

[SeattleBruce]

That’s down!!!
++++++++++++++

He’s only +6 on the Abyss measure:
48 approval of any kind - 42 strongly disapprove.
He’s only 5 points up on strongly disapprove (and 5 points down on strongly approve) from his all time lows. The squishy middle will continue to read and be shocked by SocialistCare and all else they are attempting to RAM down our throats.

imho, he’ll dive again soon.

[SeattleBruce]

I recommend everyone who has a Facebook or MySpace account, put out daily factoids about ObamaCare that the state-run media have intentionally avoided, starting with 17,000 new IRS agents peering into your financial matters. And always, as opposed to the leftards, cite sources.

It is amazing how many people don’t know what is entailed.
++++++++++++++++

It’s utterly dumbfounding, isn’t it? That so many are so clueless about this monstrosity and its stripping of freedoms. ARGH! We must soldier on!!

[SmokingJoe]

One thing though, after the SOTU speech, he shot up to -4, which was the best he'd been since October last year. If -10 or thereabouts is the best he can do after his biggest bill has passed, he's in trouble.
Plus if you look at the figures, his disapproval amongst independents has actually gone UP to -26 (all the increase in his “Strongly approve” have come from the Democratic Party base alone). That's bad news for him and the Democrats. You are not going to win anything with the independents against you.

[Hawthorn]

>> after the SOTU speech, he shot up to -4, which was the best he’d been since October last year. If -10 or thereabouts is the best he can do after his biggest bill has passed, he’s in trouble <<

Agreed. I don’t expect to see that -4 number again. But if we do, it’s likely to be only a statistical blip, destined to fade within three days.

On the other hand, Index values in the range of -6 to -9 are a distinct possibility. They too are likely to be nothing more than random statistical noise, in my opinion. Still, we can expect any such numbers to bring “hosannas” from the leftwing chorus, plus at least a smidgen of Rasmussen-bashing from the usual suspects here on FR.

>> disapproval amongst independents has actually gone UP to -26 (all the increase in his “Strongly approve” have come from the Democratic Party base alone). That’s bad news for him and the Democrats <<

Agreed again. And I just wish Rasmussen would release his daily results on the approve-disapprove numbers for independents. Those data could make for some fascinating trend analysis!

[dalight]

Forecast for tomorrow:

70% probability that the Index will trade in the range of -10 to -12.

15% probability that it will go up to -9 or higher.

15% probability that it will go down to -13 or lower.

If you look at the patterns on Rassmussen you will see that there is generally a two week cycle and there is a relative top in around 7 days from each relative bottom. I believe this is essentially caused by their pattern of poling as it crosses from a relative blue population to a relative red one and back.. after his drubbing of the Republicans at the retreat he shot up to -6 but this quickly dissipated as the reality came back.

This spike is based on the spike in praise in the news but the reality of this thing is leaking out and the support from the left will actually crash I believe when it become real that this is a job and opportunity killer for the lower class right now.. but the benefits are years away. If you are having a hard time paying bills and health care just went out of reach a promise 4 years from now just doesn't cut it. Ultimately, the reality is that this bill does nothing in particular except raise taxes, block the creation of minimum wage jobs, force insurance companies to increase premiums, and reduce real access to health care professionals especially for the poor and unemployed.

Everything that Obama has done increases the pain of poor people..and the realization that this stink pot actually puts off any real benefits for years is unavoidable.

I believe this is the bounce.. down 3 over the next few days and probably another 3 in two weeks back to around -15 or -16.

[Hawthorn]

>> If you look at the patterns on Rassmussen you will see that there is generally a two week cycle and there is a relative top in around 7 days from each relative bottom. <<

Although I haven’t noticed such a pattern, it may be there. If so, it probably results from the behavior of Rasmussen’s three-day rolling average. If instead he were using a four-day or a five-day rolling average, then the periodicity you mention would probably be longer — say eight to ten days.

In any event, if you have statistics (as opposed to a mere impression), please let us know.

>> This spike is based on the spike in praise in the news <<

For sure, some of the marked upward swings in the Rasmussen Index are caused by “news” events (as reported by the leftwing media). But I’m confident that sometimes the swings are nothing more than statistical blips that will always accompany small-sample polling. So we need to be careful in trying to distinguish one sort of cause from the other.

>> the support from the left will actually crash I believe when it become real that this is a job and opportunity killer for the lower class <<

I hope you’re correct! But let’s be careful about counting the chickens while the eggs are still intact.

>> I believe this is the bounce.. down 3 over the next few days and probably another 3 in two weeks back to around -15 or -16 <<

Maybe so. And the speed of the fade will probably tell us a lot about the “intensity” of support among 0bama’s hardcore worshippers!

[Right Cal Gal]

I’d love to see health care insurers send letters to their policyholders NOW and tell them how much the premiums will be come 2011. Because every one of them are increasing, some as much as 107% (Levin’s show on Monday had the actual numbers) according to, I believe the CBO. And IIRC, the bill doesn’t give anyone access to a “government” plan until 2014 when they have the funds in place to pay for it, so Zero will be tap dancing pretty fast to explain to people why their premiums didn’t drop $2500 a year like he promised they would.

But it’s important to get the word out about premium increases BEFORE November so that voters know just what type of “Hope and Chains” they got on Sunday.

[akapossumdawg]

Obama has still lost the majority of those that elected him.

[Norman Bates]

Forecast for tomorrow:

70% probability that the Index will trade in the range of -10 to -12.

15% probability that it will go up to -9 or higher.

15% probability that it will go down to -13 or lower.

****************

Where are you getting those probabilities from?

[marstegreg]

My understanding is that people are already hitting doctors up for “free healthcare”. I wonder how happy they will be waiting a four years to get it? I think he will lose his base.

[newfreep]

My forecast?

50% chance it will go up.

50% chance it will go down.

50% chance it will stay the same.

[Hawthorn]

>> Where are you getting those probabilities from? <<

Gaussian distributions, various moving averages, regressions, etc. — significantly modified almost every day by seat-of-the-pants judgements.

I don’t want to give out an exact methodology, however, because I’d very much like to lure others into making their own forecasts. Then the test of time might let us determine if there is a superior forecasting algorithm.

But here’s a hint:

Think about the way a three-day moving average operates. Then you may see how two days of “putative raw data” can give a plausible forecast for the next day’s Index in perhaps 2/3 of the cases.

[dalight]

In any event, if you have statistics, please let us know.

mmm.. what statistical analysis would you propose, regression analysis, attempting to match against a Bayesian distribution? What does this comment even mean? The data is there to see. And, they plot it for you for free on their site.. look at it. Gees. And no, the 3 day rolling average would not account for a two week period in the levels of support. This has to be accounted for by their pattern of calling (states/cities/populations) which is probably fixed so that the numbers they yield are comparable.

Just look at the daily tracking poll chart.. up,down,up,down,up,down.. on and on.. and look.. the period is roughly the same except when the overall levels are in flux. Look at the raw data listed by date.. trough to peak just about 7 days.. if I spent time.. this could probably be stripped of the underlying trend and plotted against a sine wave, but I am busy.. so you should use your eyes.. they should be able to pick this up.

I hope you’re correct! But let’s be careful about counting the chickens while the eggs are still intact.

Not really placing any bets on any of this.. but if you look at the numbers and see how they change.. most all of this upward is base who were disgusted that are now not so disgusted so probably libs rather than independents... but the problem is that this bill is a sell out of that very group except for rich libs who don't really need help right now.. they can afford not to care that the poor get hosed by this because needed reforms are put off for years while the "reform" actually increases cost and decreases access for folks who are already desperate.

My belief is that folks are going to work out that there is no there there.. just promises about 2014 which are so far into the future as to not matter much when you are figuring out how to pay bills tomorrow. So, I figure half of those who are newly happy will go back to "oh crapsville" in a week or so.

[Hawthorn]

>> what statistical analysis would you propose <<

Well, I guess you could (1) smooth the data with something like a two-day or three-day moving average, in order to produce a well-behaved osciallation, then (2)count the number of days from peak to trough and then back to the next peak. Next, you could (3) compute mean duration of the periods observed and apply some kind of significance test, so as to determine whether you were observing some kind of “real” periodicity as opposed to a statistical artifact.

(I don’t what kind of significance test would be appropriate. But an hour or so of research via Google ought to produce an answer.)

[dalight]

Well, I guess you could (1) smooth the data with something like a two-day or three-day moving average, in order to produce a well-behaved osciallation, then (2)count the number of days from peak to trough and then back to the next peak. Next, you could (3) compute mean duration of the periods observed and apply some kind of significance test, so as to determine whether you were observing some kind of “real” periodicity as opposed to a statistical artifact.

Well, I wouldn't do that.. and I have actually had statistics. Gees. If it weren't plain obvious in the raw data and in the plot, perhaps you would play a significance game.. but look at the stupid plot, up, down, up, down. Measure it with a ruler.. the period is almost exact. It doesn't take an engineer to read this.. just two eyes. Turn off your calculator and experience the world. BTW.. I am an engineer also.. but not necessary for this..

Honestly, the pattern is real. Who knows what is the cause.

Keep care.

[marstegreg]

Thanks, I will pass this along.

[dalight]

I believe this is the bounce.. down 3 over the next few days and probably another 3 in two weeks back to around -15 or -16.

Remember this little prediction? Looks right on track.

[Hawthorn]

>> Remember this little prediction? Looks right on track. <<

Absolutely! I just hope we reach your prediction of -15 or -16 very soon!

But we probably won’t be able to judge for a few days whether this morning’s very large downward shift was due to a real change in public opinion, versus simply an out-of-range sample.

If I had to bet, however, I’d put my money on the latter. To get a drop of -3 in today’s reported Index value, there had to be a swing of something like -9 in last night’s raw data. And I submit that public opinion simply isn’t going to change so fast, in the absence of some clear “exogenous” event.

Therefore, Rasmussen’s “three-day methodology” means we’ll probably see numbers close to today’s -13 for the next two mornings. Then we may get a very important clue from Wednesday morning’s report as to whether the Index truly has moved down by a few points, or whether its “underlying” value remains closer to -10.

Forecast for tomorrow:

80% probability that the Index is at -12 or lower.

20% probability that it rises to -11 or higher.

[jersey117]

I can’t wait until he’s flushed down the toilet.

[dalight]

But we probably won’t be able to judge for a few days whether this morning’s very large downward shift was due to a real change in public opinion, versus simply an out-of-range sample.

Well, we'll just see.

For me.. I will be looking at the next peak which would be about 10 days from now. If that is at 10, this is the new range, but if it is lower, Obama is losing the bounce entirely.. but I personally believe that will require something more to hit the news that demoralizes the leftist base.