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To: Gay State Conservative
There's the SNP (leftist),Plaid Cymru (leftist) and several others.

True.
I am not sure how many seats the SNP is winning these days. Last time I was there, Labour was busy taking plenty of seats from the SNP in Scotland. Plaid Cymru in Wales..didn't even think they were still in business much, let alone winning many seats.
Thing is, with these projections, Labour will be short by a massive 80 seats. They are still going to find it harder to form a government from an alliance of SNP, Plaid Cymru or any other of the smaller parties, plus the Lib Dems, as compared to the Conservatives, who will need only 11 more seats, and could very well form alliances with any of the smaller parties and form a government, without the need for the Liberal Dems. The more coalition partners you need, the harder it is to form a goverment.

It could well be true that the Tories are most likely to form the next government but,depending on the actual vote,it's not a certainty”

Nothing is 100% certain in any elections. But unless there is some kind of earthquake, and the polls change considerably in the next few days, the Conservatives will form the next government.

21 posted on 05/02/2010 12:26:21 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: SmokingJoe

I’m not so sure. I think there is going to be much more volatility in this election. Odds are local factors and tactical voting are going to be much more evident, and the smaller parties are likely to do (relatively) well, which will take votes from all of the major parties. That’s going to make it a lot harder for the pollsters to predict the result.


24 posted on 05/02/2010 3:23:44 PM PDT by Vanders9
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