Suddenly, Everyone's In the CRASH Camp, Not Just The Bear Camp

The Business Insider ^ | 5-18-2010 | Joshua Brown

[blam]

Suddenly, Everyone's In the CRASH Camp, Not Just The Bear Camp

Joshua Brown
May. 18, 2010, 9:12 PM

Here a Swan, there a Swan, everywhere a Black Swan...

Newsletter writers, hedge fund managers, journalists, bloggers, technicians, fundamental analysts, economists and strategists are joining the crash camp left and right. Not the bear camp...the crash camp.

After scanning today's articles and blog posts, I can honestly say that I've never heard more chatter about an imminent market crash, all at once, in my life. It's like the May 6th Flash Crash got everyone in the mood to talk cataclysm all of a sudden.

I'm not one of those guys who takes everything as a contrarian signal. I abhor knee-jerk contrarianism. Samuel Lord once said "Do not choose to be wrong for the sake of being different," and I think that's kind of apropos here.

[snip]

* The technicians and Dow Theorists are grossed out and have dusted off all the 1937 charts again. Specifically, they are looking at the highly distinct pattern of a big drop (May 6th) followed by a failed rally (euro bailout day's 4% gap open) followed by another fast sell-off. Richard Russell's latest missive, in which he tells us that we won't recognize America by year's end, will make you want to kill yourself.

[snip]

We're not talking garden variety bearishness here. We're talking about ubiquitous crash predictions. My comment is that I've never seen so much certainty in so many places of a coming crash. Will it be self-fulfilling or are we talking major contrarian signal?

Worth noting no matter what.

This guest post previously appeared at the author's blog, The Reformed Broker >

[snip]

[indthkr]

bump

[Kylie_04]

mark

[CallMeIshmael33141]

As an ex-broker myself and one who's been in the markets for forty years I can tell you that this negative sentiment is very recent. We are reaching the Point Of Recognition that the world is not as rosy as they've been telling us. Just a suggestion here: Back in '87 we had a similar setup, a big down day a couple of weeks before the crash followed by two weeks of heightened volatility. The Friday before the crash was options expiration (actually Saturday if you insist on punctilious accuracy, but Friday was the last day to trade the options). That Sunday's Meet The Press featured Treasury Secretary James Baker's announcement that we would let the dollar slide go unabated, his answer to the Europeans' refusal to help us out by cutting their interest rates allowing us to avoid having to raise our rates. The next morning the markets crashed worldwide. Today the Europeans are again at an inflection point. This Friday (OK, Saturday) is options expiration day. Deja Vu all over again?

[blam]

Thanks for the insightful post.

[pabianice]

We need a better name. An upward market is a Bull. A downward market is a Bear. I submit a Crash Market is a Gooney Bird (ever see one try to land in a calm wind?)

[djf]

If the economy survives - and note I said if - this whole German deal is a biggie.

The longs will flock to Germany. Even if it costs them a bit of a premium.

That puts the short pressure somewhere else - can you spell COMEX?

And COMEX is already reeling from short exposure.

Germany might have just checkmated us.