Posted on 05/22/2010 3:37:50 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi
In the wake of Tuesday’s Pennsylvania special election loss, disappointed House Republican leaders have engaged in a round of soul-searching to determine the causes behind the defeat and put an end to what they view as a potentially damaging campaign narrative.
Blah, blah, blah......
In a memo obtained by POLITICO that is scheduled to be circulated to House Republicans on Friday, Ulm wrote that the special election outcome was largely the result of a late-breaking surge of Democratic voters toward Rep. Joe Sestak in the high-profile Senate primary, a force that unexpectedly boosted turnout in southwestern Pennsylvania.
“The bottom line is that the special election coincided with very competitive Democratic primaries that inflated the number of base Democrats anxious to defeat Arlen Specter,” wrote Ulm, a top GOP pollster.
“The Democratic primary prevented the turnout depression we have seen in other races this year: 82,675 turned out to vote, making Election Day turnout 64.3 percent Democrat [and] 35.6 percent Republican,” noted Ulm. “This is overwhelmingly the most powerful factor impacting the results which makes this race different from other partisan contests held this year.”
That's my favorite quote. I like that we've gone from "message", which is not even a word and is several degrees away from "principles" to "messaging". I think it's the core of the problem with the GOP that they think good messaging is how to win elections.
I like that we’ve gone from “message”, which is not even a word and is several degrees away from “principles” to “messaging”. ...
Should have been written as,
I like that we’ve gone from “message”, several degrees away from “principles” to “messaging”, which is not even a word.
I think its being over analyzed.
Its a democrat heavy area.
Yep. I live there. And the mentality that Murtha could do all is pervasive, so they think “his guy” will make it all the way it was. But it wasn’t the way they think it was anyway.
Sheeple.
The GOP should have backed Bill Russel. He got awfully close even while Murtha was still alive.....
I agree. I’ve seen a graphic of the district PA-12 and it would make the long-dead Elbridge Gerry green with envy. Unfortunately for him and his ilk, there were no computers back then. Now maybe the desire to turn out and boot Arlen Specter brought more dem voters to the primary or it didn’t. Either way, Mark Critz ran as a conservative dem against Obama.
It may take a while, but if the dems of district 12 think a freshman like Critz is going to be able to hold together Murtha’s Defense contracting empire they are sadly mistaken. With Porky holding the whip hand, the DoD and the legit Defense contractors are going to unass PA-12 so fast their heads will spin.
I’ve got a marxist representative now but we’re a pretty consistently republican district (Mi 7th). The only reason we lost the seat in the last election was a combination of beltway GOP stupidity and the Obama wave that brought out people who voted for the first time because of Obama and they voted straight ticket.
Now the guy we lost last time is leading the entire field by ten points or better. He brings little federal money to the district and that’s just fine with me.
I think the biggest factor was that Critz ran as a Conservative. Perhaps that was the tipping point?
What “culprit”? It is 2:1 Democrat? If the Dems lost a 2:1 GOP district the media would not be creating a phony “narrative”.
Democrats still control congress. Their only hope to keep the Murtha pork flowing is a Democrat. Johnstown will be a ghost town if federal money stopped flowing.
Any district that voted 65% for Obama or less is in play and can be taken.
I don’t think Murtha’s district qualified on this basis.
PA 12 went for McCain.
YEP...what YOU said.....gov’t “money” is like “mafia” money....comes with too many strings attached....and a big markup
People complain about earmarks but earmarks are only a symptom of the disease.
Leave more money in the hands of the people and if they want a special project, they’ll fund it through donations or they’ll vote to give more taxes to the local government.
Earmarks also lead to irresponsible fiscal behavior.
PA-12 is heavily Democratic, and was drawn up that way.
In 2002, Murtha faced off in the Democrat primary against another congressman, Mascara.
The idea of drawing the lines for the 12th in 2001 was to get as many Democrats in that district to give the Republicans the best chance in the 18th District (Murphy) and 4th District (Hart).
Its disappointing to have lost this special election, but its hardly the end of the world. The rematch in November may well turn out differently. The hopes in 2001, when the reapportionment was done was to have a 13-6 GOP edge in the delegation, with the 12th being a “D” seat.
“...Defense contractors are going to unass PA-12...”
You MUST have been in the military, the only place where ‘ass’ is used as a verb (with the ‘un’ prefix, of course).
I’m with you. I don’t want the government’s money. All that does is steal from one area to give to another. Just take care of national security and leave me alone.
Here is how Burns lost:
When Gov. Ed Rendell decided to hold the 12th Congressional District special election on the same day as the May primary, he was looking to save Pennsylvania the hefty price tag associated with another stand-alone election—not to mention his likely interest in giving his party the edge from the higher turnouts its expecting for competitive statewide primaries.
But his decision also had another consequence—giving the special election candidates in the 12th a huge advantage in their respective party primaries.
The advantage is particular important for Republican Tim Burns, who, despite winning the GOP’s nomination for the special election, still faces a fierce challenge from military veteran Bill Russell in the primary. And Russell’s challenge is a daunting one, according to one pollster. Faced with two ballots and two sets of candidates vying for the same House seat, confusion among voters is almost certain to impact the primaries, Franklin & Marshall College political scientist G. Terry Madonna said.
“It may sound crazy, but a significant part of the May vote could hinge on how many voters are aware that there is a major difference between the special election and the primary, and what exactly that difference is,” Madonna told pa2010.com.
While those voters dedicated enough to participate in a primary during a midterm election cycle are often among the most well-informed constituents, they are not necessarily immune to the confusions and pressures presented by a special election being held the same day, Madonna said. The degree to which people understand the difference between the elections—and what party members do to educate the public about that difference—is going to impact the outcome of both races.
The prize in the special election is getting to serve out the final months of the late John Murtha’s term. The winners of each party primary, on the other hand, get to compete in the November election for a new, two-year term. Considering how unlikely it is that voters would pull the level both for and against the same candidate on the same ballot, Burns and Democratic special election nominee Mark Critz clearly have the edge to face off again in November.
“I don’t see how a voter would feel comfortable going for Tim Burns in the special election and immediately voting against him in the primary,” Madonna said. “I can’t say for sure that the issue will directly harm one candidate or another, but I think it is certainly possible. If Burns were to win the special election and not the primary, that would be a stunner.”
Entire article here:
http://www.pa2010.com/2010/03/for-12th-district-candidates-not-being-the-special-election-nominee-makes-for-a-daunting-path/
Yes. I spent some time with Northrorp Grumman recently and they hated Johnstown with a passion. Next year’s Apple Blossom Parade (or whatever the eff they call it) is going to be a ghost-fest.
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