Posted on 06/01/2010 5:46:41 PM PDT by randita
It has entirely to do with who Steve Raby is and nothing else. Steve Raby is sort of a brand name in that part of the state and he actually has far more name recognition throughout the district as a whole than Mo Brooks does.
Raby has run campaigns for candidates in both parties. Raby therefore knows strategy from both sides of the aisle. Raby wouldn’t be putting his name on the line if he didn’t have a road map for how he’d win and hell, if he wins, then that means Steve Raby becomes that much more impressive.
The problem with Mo Brooks is when you look at the results. 39,000 of the 70,000 Republican primary votes were cast in Madison County. A large number of white Democrats voted in that primary. I assume most of them voted for Mo Brooks.
Outside of Madison it broke down something like 37,000 in the Dem primary to 31,000 in the Rep primary and thats including Republican Limestone and areas within Morgan. If you remove Madison County from the results, Brooks ends up with 13,338 while Griffith has 14,351.
Brooks entire margin of victory in that primary is attributable to Madison County where it was well known that many white Democrats cross over during state primary time to vote in local races and Griffith of course is public enemy number one for those white Democrats, those same white Democrats who know full well that Mo Brooks has never had much play outside of Huntsville.
You can say that the national factors and all that override this but I had said from the beginning we needed Griffith, both as a propaganda point to try and convert rural conservative Democrats to our side and because he had district wide notability and isn’t associated with a single unpopular (with everyone who can’t afford to live there) neighborhood in Huntsville like Mo Brooks is.
“AzaleaCity5691 thinks the rat could possibly win in AL-05.”
IMHO, it’s possible, but not likely.
Basically it breaks down like this.
Brooks wins if he holds Huntsville metro and makes in roads in the Shoals and the mountains.
Raby wins if he holds the Shoals and the mountains and makes inroads in Huntsville metro.
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