Posted on 06/09/2010 11:44:59 AM PDT by blam
If This Chinese Rumor Is True, Then Global Trade Is Soaring Right Now
Vincent Fernando, CFA and Kamelia Angelova
Jun. 9, 2010, 1:24 PM
The latest big news in Asia recently was a report from unnamed Chinese government sources, via Reuters, that Chinese exports rose 50% year over year in May, well ahead of analysts' expectations. Official data is to be released on Thursday.
If true, this better-than-expected export strength stands in contrast to the doom and gloom we've been hearing about in May. Below we show Chinese export growth four ways -- in total, to only Europe, to only Asia, and to only North America. While not in the official data yet, we've included the latest 50% figure from Reuters as the latest data point for 'total exports', but haven't entered a most recent data point for the other three categories.
Here's what the chart tells us -- for Chinese exports to beat expectations as reported, European demand must have remained at least decent, which is surprising. As we highlighted earlier this year, European imports from Asia were very strong in Q1 despite economic concerns, but a slow-down would have made sense. But given the rather moderate growth rates for exports to Asia and North America shown below, if European demand cratered in May, then it would have required an unlikely enormous spurt in demand from both Asia and North America to achieve the 50% figure.
Yet we don't want to expect too much from Europe either, likely there was some softness in European demand given that sentiment there deteriorated substantially in May... which means that we'll bet Chinese export outperformance came from either Asia or North America surprising analysts big-time.
[snip]
(This chart was adapted from a Waverly Advisors note)
[snip]
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Nice to see the commie butchers prosper, huh
Their economists must have gone to the same schools as ours................
Sorry, my BS reader pegged out and melted before I could read any further down the article.
I don’t see it. This massive increase in trade has to get to the buyer somehow. There’s no great increase in carrier activity or rates.
Obviously, the author thinks “Obamanomics” is working with another hysterical post about how wonderful the economy is doing. He should speak wtih one of the 18 percent of the adult population who is NOT.
These “unnamed Chinese government sources, via Reuters,” sound like nothing but a hopeful assumption which is
intented to just make an ass out of U and me for repeating it without further proof. :-)
Shipping is tight for American Exporters. At least it was in May.
"Cargo container traffic on the Asia to West Coast route will see modest growth this year after seeing a 16 percent drop last year, but whether there will be enough ships to handle all that cargo in a timely fashion is another question. Major cargo container carriers, reeling from one of their worst years in history, idled about 11 percent of the world’s cargo container fleet of 4,731 vessels between September 2008 and now. Many of those ships are mothballed off the coasts of Singapore, the Philippines and China. Carriers also canceled about 6.7 percent of new ship orders, and some pushed delivery off to 2013."
Of course the "Americans" buying bonds are the Fed.
And now you know...the rest of the story.
I wouldn’t believe 90% of the crap that comes out of China. They make up their own statistics saying how wonderful everything is and the talking heads swallow it all.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.