Posted on 07/07/2010 5:59:37 PM PDT by Pan_Yan
With just two weeks to go, it’s impossible to predict who will be in the GOP primary runoff, or whether there will be a Democratic runoff. Here are some of the issues emerging as the race heats up:
The Republicans
John Oxendine
While Oxendine has enjoyed name ID advantage during much of the campaign, he has lost some of that advantage because of what most experts believe have been comparatively poor TV ads. Unlike either Karen Handel or Nathan Deal, Oxendine has no strong, centralized geographical base.
Making it to a runoff remains largely in his hands. But as we continue to see evidence of a less-than-brisk turnout for the primary, having such a geographical base will be sorely needed, as will a robust appeal to longtime GOP voters.
With the establishment GOP dedicated to his defeat, Oxendine’s campaign simply must change its advertisings strategy. If it doesn’t, Oxendine could face the possibility of not even making a runoff.
Karen Handel
While Oxendine has been sinking a bit, Handel continues to rise. Her ascendance has come primarily in the metro Atlanta counties, closest to her base in north Fulton County. She has used sparse resources wisely, with a high-end direct mail piece that actually served to gain traction in a governor’s race, which normally doesn’t happen.
It will be interesting to see if and when Handel takes to TV, and if her presence on the airwaves would catapult her into an even stronger position, or whether it would have the apparent downbeat effect that Oxendine’s ads had.
Nathan Deal
He could be the shocker in this race. Deal has been hanging in close enough to the pack that a strong last minute TV ad blitz could present a strong and “gubernatorial” face to those interested voters that are looking for an alternative.
Eric Johnson
It takes more than a week-and-a-half to see the impact of a decent TV ad on a candidate’s fortunes. So we won’t know whether Johnson’s early media effort, combined with this latest round of sustained TV ads, will be enough to lift him into a runoff.
There is a general sense that the Johnson campaign has been too centered in areas outside of metro Atlanta. And his lack of a base of strong base makes his effort all that tougher.
Johnson would be wise to divide his ad campaign: One portion targeted to metro Atlanta – and most of his ad dollars to Atlanta TV – and a second portion with a more general message for rest of state.
Democrats
Roy Barnes continues to make use of TV commercials worthy of a big league general election campaign. His latest effort poked fun at various proposals that have drifted around the Gold Dome. It’s perhaps the best political ad of the season. For Barnes, there is only one question: Will Thurbert Baker’s strong and surprisingly sustained presence on TV appeal to enough African Americans to force Barnes into a runoff? For now, these improved Barnes ads cause one to wonder if primaries or runoffs even matter. Barnes is looking very strong – much like a governor.
I do like Oxendine’s Contract with Georgia, and if he actually sticks with it, my one and only concern with him is that he’s definitely a career politician.
My friend Jef Fincher (who is in the Republican race for John Linder’s seat) and I spoke about the governor’s race and he, not wanting a career politician, believes that Eric Johnson is the real deal (moreso even than the “Real Deal”, haha!).
Two things I have heard about Handel, and hopefully someone can clear this up... She says she is pro-life, with exceptions in case of rape and incest, and also my hubby has heard she has not answered whether or not she is a log cabin republican.
Deal sent a letter to Obama demanding his birth certificate - his name stands out to me for that reason.
Johnson sounds great, but he has zero name recognition, he will really need to ramp up his ads.
I don’t know that much about Oxendine, hubby says he has been too close to scandal
Have you heard interviews with any of the others for comparison? What did you like best about her?
P.S. . . . don't drive across any flooded creeks! :-D
The first case I ever handled as a young lawyer and a clerk in Federal District Court was a suit by the survivors of a lady who tried to cross a flooded roadway in Tallapoosa and was swept away and drowned, along with her 3 and 5 year old children.
I guess that sort of stuck with me, especially watching the water creep up our main drag . . . sorry for scolding! :-(
I copy with all of you on the NO BARNES thing.
None of ‘em ever visit Columbus
but FWIW...
I think Oxendine has been very good in the Ins. Comm. office - effective
Handel has been in a position to do both stupid and harmful things - and has not.
The others I have no opinion on due to complete lack of knowledge.
I too would like to be more informed prior to voting.
You can count on FR for just about anything in the way of information!
I think what it shows is that some or us get too caught up in national politics and don't know enough about what's out our front doors. I felt bad about knowing so little about our choices for governor. Apparently I'm not alone.
I bet fellow freepers in blue states would love to have the problem of “too many conservative choices”
I refuse to vote for Oxendine. He’s just got that uppidity “I’m better than you” air about him. And, he was involved with a hunting accident, he stated he was an avid hunter, yet he had not purchased a hunting license.
I’m an avid fisherman. Most of the waters I fish are private, which do not require me to buy a license, yet my much less financially well off than Oxendine self buys one anyway because it benefits fisheries.
Oxendine carried himself with a “I’m above the law how dare you” attitude throughout the hunting accident thing. I, and most of the Outdoorsman on GON outdoors messageboard refuse to vote for him.
I’m leaning toward Nathan Deal.
Yeah, uh, don’t EVER drive across flooded bridges. We lost 6 people in Douglas county last September due to this. And I’m here to tell ya first hand, it doesn’t leave a pretty corpse.
Redistricting may take care of this; they key is to elect as many GOP members of your legislature as possible. Georgia could be gerrymandered to have as few as 3 or 4 Dems in the (larger) post redistricting. That would be superb.
I assume if he has the “I’m better than you” attitude he was also much too good to serve in uniform. Who’s the veteran in the race?
Nathan Deal. He’s been my representative for a long a time - even back when he was a Democrat he was a better Conservative than most ‘Pubbies. He’s been consistent and pretty darn good.
Nathan Deal has my vote. He’s always been a reliable Conservative. BTW, if anyone is looking for anything at all good to say about Roy Barnes I believe he had the highest rating from the NRA. In Georgia it’s not unusual for Dems outside of the Atlanta area to be stron 2nd Amendment supporters.
I’ve been making some phone calls on behalf of Karen Handel. When the race started I was not sure who I’d go with but being active in politics in my county for 10 yrs I relied on those years contacts and working with various politicians to make my decision. As for Oxendine he peaked pretty early on but there is something there about him tht turns me off....not sure what it is. Nathan Deal....really don’t know enough about him....liked his years in Congress but was kind of upset when he left to run for Governor...thought he could have done more there with his conservative views. Was very impressed with Karen Handels brochure I got in the mail...for those who don’t know her views I thought it gave a good rundown on them. I’m happy with all I know about her at this point and yesterday got a robot call from Gov Brewer saying she is supporting Karen and she knows they both share the same views on immigration.
That I can’t answer...but I’m about convinced I’m voting for Deal.
Nathan Deal all the way !
Oxendine as Insurance Commissioner would regularly launch investigations of insurance companies, threaten them with huge fines and revocation of their license. Then, a few days later, his campaign manager would call the company’s representatives and ask if they were interested in making a contribution.
He is a serpent and a worm that should never hold high office.
What turns you off about Oxendine is his true nature as a corrupt worm. It is to your credit that you sensed that he is a genuine phony.
Eric Johnson was our state rep and did a fine job. He resigned to run for governor. Very conservative and has a proven record as a conservative. He has my vote.
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