Posted on 07/13/2010 8:38:52 PM PDT by no dems
Seven months ago, the conventional wisdom was that, while the Republicans would score impressive gains in both houses of Congress in the elections of 2010, the Democrats would keep control. Now, it is that the Republicans may, indeed, capture the House, but never the Senate. Presidential press secretary Robert Gibbs admitted that the loss of the House was a possibility.
The conventional wisdom is still wrong. The Republicans will take the Senate and the House. Here's the Senate rundown: Retiring Republicans
The GOP has six retiring incumbents. Kentucky and Kansas are no problem. In Missouri, Republican Roy Blunt is ahead and, in Ohio, Republican Ron Portman is slightly ahead. In New Hampshire, the Republicans have a fierce primary, but, trust us, if even Massachusetts went Republican, New Hampshire won't go Democrat. In Florida, Republican Rubio is in a tough race against turncoat former Republican Crist, but he will eventually pull through.
Easy Pickups: Delaware, Indiana, Arkansas, North Dakota Republicans hold a commanding lead in the three open seats and a double digit lead over Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.
The Balance of Power States: Pennsylvania: Republican Pat Toomey is pulling ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak. Likely GOP pickup.
Colorado: Both parties have primaries but either Republican beats either Democrat. Another pickup.
Nevada: Despite a negative pounding, Sharron Angle is still ahead of Reid and Harry is decidedly under 50% of the vote in all polls. Probably Harry loses
Illinois: Tied race between Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Giannoulais. Could go either way.
California: Carly Fiorina is only 3 pts behind Barbara Boxer and Boxer is under 50% and has been all year. Could go either way
Washington State: Republican Dino Rossi is tied with incumbent Patty Murray and Murray is under 50%. Could go either way.
Wisconsin: Republican Ron Johnson who is not well known, is very close to Russ Feingold in the polls. Russ is still ahead but Johnson has a very good shot.
So of the seven balance of power states, the Republicans have to pick up six to take the Senate. We probably will. In fact, the trend out there is so strong, the economy so bad, the Afghan War such bad news, the oil spill so awful that we likely win all seven.
It would be nice, but the toe-sucker’s track records on predictions doesn’t give me a lot of confidence.
A worthless non-analysis that could have been written by a kid with Wikipedia. He says most races “could go either way” and then concludes that the R’s will probably win all seven. Morris is usually better than this.
I hate to sound like a Debbie Downer, but only two of his seven “Balance of Power” states are “likely”. Getting four out of the five remaining coin-flips is a pretty tall order, especially as that mathematically requires that either Reid or Boxer gets beaten.
Don’t forget WV it will be in play this year if a good candidate is able to be recruited to run against Manchin and against Obama.
Let’s concede the toe sucker is right on the easy pickups (4). That still means the GOP has to win 6 of the 7 toss-ups just to eek ahead by 51-49 while not yielding any open seats. The GOP has just as many open seats to defend as the RATss.
Does this analysis include the Democrats’ uncanny ability to “find” extra votes and win close races? Al Franken and wasn’t it Oregon or Washington that they pulled out squeakers?
“Morris is usually better than this.”
I disagree. He always leaves himself an out. He’s the Roubini of politics.
He’s assuming the Dems play by the proper rules - not their rules.
Dick Morris? This is not good news. His predictions are always wrong.
[of Reid and Harry is decidedly under 50% of the vote in all polls. Probably Harry loses ]
Sharron is only ahead 46% to 43%. As Freepers know, I have written a book on Harry that is devastating, just trying to get the word out. Click my name for more info.
I just wish just ONE Republican would run an ad saying “Did YOU have a job just two short years ago???? Where did it go?? Please ask President Obama where your job went. “Had a job under Bush - No job under Obama”
Where are the jobs??? Where did $787 BILLION bucks go???
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