Posted on 08/21/2010 12:49:31 AM PDT by naturalman1975
This is a live thread to follow the count for the Australian Federal Election 2010. Polling stations in the eastern Australian states (which means the large bulk of Australia's population) close at 6pm Australian standard time - that is 1am in California, and 4pm in New York for American comparisons.
Australia currently has a Labor government elected in November 2007 under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd who defeated the Liberal/National coalition government of Prime Minister John Howard which had governed Australia for approximately 11 years. Labor, in response to poor opinion poll results, recently replaced their leader, giving us our first female Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, while the Liberal party (senior party in the coalition) after trying a very moderate party member as Leader of the Opposition, chose conservative Tony Abott as its leader in December last year.
In simple terms, this is an election of socialist Labor versus the conservative Liberal/National coalition, and the end result will be either Julia Gillard continuing as Prime Minister, or being replaced by Tony Abott.
But it isn't quite that straightforward.
Australia's political system is largely based on that of the United Kingdom, with some element adopted from the system of the United States. We have a Parliament with two Houses - a House of Representatives and a Senate - that are roughly similar to the US Congress, with the House of Representatives consisting of Members elected to represent local constituencies roughly based on equal population, while the Senate has an equal number of Senators representing each state (two 'Territories' of Australia also have a smaller number of Senators). What matters today is the election of the House of Representatives - the Senate is important, but it doesn't determine who holds government and the complicated voting system used there means we won't know its make up for some time.
So let's look at the House of Representatives.
There are 150 seats in the House of Representatives. If a party (or coalition of parties) wins 76 seats, it wins government. If no party (or coalition) achieves that number we have a hung Parliament - which could happen, and if it does, both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott will need to see if they can make a deal to form government (Gillard, as the incumbent, is entitled to the first chance to do so).
There are four parties of relevance to the House (there are a lot more parties, but only four are statistically likely to win even a single seat in the House).
We have Labor - who currently hold 83 seats and the government. A socialist party with all that entails. I am afraid I think they are most likely to be narrowly returned - but I'm willing to be wrong. The bottom line is we don't want Labor winning 76 seats, and even if they win 71 or so, they have a reasonable chance of forming a minority government.
We have two conservative parties - the Liberal Party and the National Party. These two parties nearly always operate in coalition and differences between them are minor. The Liberals are the larger party in the coalition and tend to represent conservatives in cities and the suburbs. The Nationals tend to represent conservatives in rural areas. There is also the Liberal-National Party (or LNP) which reflects the fact that in the state of Queensland and the Northern Territory, the two parties have formally combined. For the purposes of tonight, these three parties can all be counted together - so if they can win, combined, a minimum of 76 seats, we win. We go into this election with 63 seats. With 72, we have a chance to form a minority government, assuming Labor hasn't managed 76 - how good a chance is very hard to say.
The other party of relevance is the Greens. The Greens have never won a seat in the House of Representatives, but have a reasonable chance of doing so today - one single seat which is currently held by Labor. The Greens have made it clear that in the event of a hung Parliament, they would give their support to Labor.
There are also four independents - they will, if reelected, or if any other independents are elected, have the balance of power in a hung parliament. All four of them are former members of the conservative parties (one Liberal and three Nationals) so if this happens, it may come down to whether their conservative tendencies are more or less important to them, than the reasons they left their parties.
So 76 seats is the magic number - it may help Americans to consider this as equivalent to Electoral College votes in your presidential elections (although they come in one at a time, not in blocks).
Now - Australia is a federation of six states (former British colonies) and two major territories (there are a number of minor territories, but they don't return Members of Parliament and are irrelevant here).
Polling indicates that in the current election, conservatives (the Liberals, Nationals, and Liberal Nationals) are most popular in Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia. Labor is most popular in Victoria and South Australia. In simple terms, to win, conservatives are hoping we can win enough seats in Queensland and New South Wales, and Labor is hoping they can win seats in Victoria and South Australia to hold us off. We're certainly interested in the other states and territories - we'll take a win anywhere we can get one, and a loss anywhere can hurt us - but most focus will be on these four states.
One final note - Australia has a preferential voting system - you have to rank candidates in the order you want them, not just vote for a single candidate. That means as results come in, the initial count (the 'primary vote') doesn't always matter much - unless a candidate does win 50% of it. What counts is how the votes go after the 'Distribution of Preferences', what is referred to as the 'Two Party Preferred' or '2PP' vote. Win 50%+1 of that, and you are in.
As happens in the US, media outlets use statistical analysis to try and call seats well before counting is complete. They are generally pretty good at it. We often start to get some calls within 30 minutes of polls closing.
OK... time to start the live thread.
He only looks to be about 5 foot tall, which makes him look even younger.
We get a mix - some are good. Some are bad.
At this point, I’m feeling pretty good. Listening to the independents and looking them up - I think we’ve got a good chance at a minority conservative government - 73 coalition, and three conservative independents worried about rural issues as a block gives us the 76. No guarantees, and a minority government is not ideal - but I really think it’s possible.
Labor: 70
Liberal/Nationals: 73
Other: 5
These are predictions - not calls - but getting pretty solid at this point.
5 foot tall - maybe he’s still growing! LOL. We grow farm kids big here and he looks small for a farm boy. Looks like he needs some “mama’s cooking.”
I’m happy you’re feeling good about the election. I admire your country and hated to see that Kevin Rudd (ear wax eater) elected. I liked John Howard a lot.
Thanks for keeping me informed. I appreciate all the time you spent with me.
Worst case is we’ve cut back Labor’s lead. Even that’s enough to make me happy. A minority government would definitely make me even happier though.
Sorry, it seemed as if FR went down on my end, I could not get any pages to load.
So how does this split play out with the Prime Minister position?
In essence, both Labor and the coalition will have to try and get the support of enough independents to form a government. That means making deals.
As the incumbent, convention says Ms Gillard has the first chance to do this.
Whoever manages to form government will be the Prime Minister.
I am smiling. I hear you on Labour. I despise Labour, also. I hope you get the minority government. It’s possible!
Having originally come from his seat and seen him in action, Oakshot is the most likely to jump ship to support Labor of the 3 ‘conservative’ MPs. I don’t trust him.
Whatever happens, this is failure for Gillard and success for Abbot, she lost the majority.
I guess we have to wait and see.
The Prime Minister is coming out to speak.
to a half empty hall, hardly anyone there, look at the view from the stage.
JG has got her knee pads on already to the indies and greens.
Precis of speech:
“The people have spoken but it’s going to take a little while to determine what they have said.”
“Too close to call.... a number of days to count.”
References to the independents by name.
Points out that she remains Prime Minister until the outcome of the election is known.
Making her pitch for the support of the independents and Greens.
Acknowledges Mr Abbott - different world views, and opinions. Calls him a formidable opponent and congratulates him on his campaign.
Acknowledges her party and the union movement.
Claims she kept the country employed.
Workers rights workers rights workers rights.
Every child is entitled to a great education (actually, even I think she is pretty good on that).
Health care for all.
“We’ve sat here since 6 o’clock. It’s now 11.30 and we haven’t got a clue.”
And with that I think I’ll be heading to bed soon.
Theoretically she can remain Prime Minister if she can grasp enough support if I’m understanding correctly.
It looks like the most powerful people in Australia right now are those few independents.
Yes - she can remain Prime Minister as long as she has ‘the confidence of the House’.
Basically if a majority of members vote her out (76) she has to either resign so her party can choose a new Leader (who will become Prime Minister), or ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament for another election.
To stay in government with a minority, she needs to get enough independents (and the Green) to agree to support her on ‘confidence and budget motions’ (nothing else) to stop that magic 76 votes against her.
Tony Abbott speaking:
“This is a night for pride in our achievements, for satisfaction at the good results that have been achieved, but above all else mature reflection on the magnitude of the task ahead.”
“Great night for the Australian people.”
“I feel humbled as I feel of the responsibilities that could lie ahead.”
Thanking everybody.
“On current counting, the first ever indigenous member of the House of Representatives will be a Liberal member.”
“I acknowledge my opponent... the last eight weeks could not have been easy for her, and she worked very hard for her cause under difficult circumstances.”
“A win for the Australian people.”
“We do not have a clear result and until we do, the caretaker provisions must continue. What is definitely clear is the Labor Party has definitely lost its majority and what that means is that the government has lost its legitimacy and I say that a government that found it very hard to govern effectively with a makority of 17 seats will never be able to govern with a minority.”
400,000 more people voted for the coalition than for Labor.
Labor achieved lowest primary vote of any government since the second world war.
The Australian people have responded to the clear policies.
Local control of schools and hospitals, practical environment policies, and a strong economy that understands the need of small business.
Australian people have rejected factionalism.
Referendum on the political execution of a Prime Minister - our political system should never be characterised by the midnight knock on the door by the faceless men of the Labor party.
The coalition is back in business.
Stable, predictable, and competent government
Will be talking to the independents.
Good night all. No result tonight and it’s midnight here, so I shall go to sleep.
Sleep well naturalman and please keep me updated on what happens. I’m very happy for you that Abbot was able to bring in some many wins!!!
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