“I have to say, I’m not at all confident Miller has this in the bag. Murkowski only needs to win about 55% of the absentee ballots to win. What reason is there to believe that she doesn’t get 55%?”
You want a reason. Here is a good reason. Most of the absentees very likely come from 4 militar, a very good reasony bases where Miller got 75% of the vote on election day.
http://www.conservatives4palin.com/2010/08/good-news-disproportionate-percentage.html
correction: 4 military bases