Posted on 08/29/2010 10:23:09 PM PDT by JustTheTruth
China's Hayman declaration
30 Aug 2010
In most years something very memorable occurs at the Australian Leadership Retreat on Hayman Island. Last year the Chinese were stopped from attending because China discovered that the then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd would be in attendance. Rudd had fallen out with the Chinese leadership (Building bridges with China, September 1 2009).
In 2010 Rudd was not there and the Chinese came in force and some of their messages are still ringing in my ears.
By far the most dramatic was the declaration that China did not plan to buy any more US treasury securities or bonds. The person who made the statement does not make that decision, but he is closely connected to the China hierarchy. He explained that the $US2.5 trillion of China’s foreign reserves held in US dollars was burdensome because it limited the flexibility of monetary policy and any appreciation of the Chinese currency would cause loss. China would therefore not be a buyer of US dollars but would not sell. China would look to diversify its holdings and was a buyer of European and Japanese government bonds as well as other currencies.
A statement along those lines in more normal times would have seen the Hayman phones running hot to sell US dollars.
But at the moment the US dollar, as the world currency, is gaining considerable support from the Middle East and other areas. In addition China is looking to increase imports and to reduce its surpluses. But longer-term when the main supporter of a particular asset says that they will withdraw their continued support, the value of the asset will fall. If China follows through on the Hayman declaration it is not good long-term news for the US currency.
But the Chinese also had some special messages for Australia. In particular, the rise in iron ore prices has had a huge impact on China and so China wants long term contracts with price stability, which will protect Australia if there is a price fall.
The problem for Australia is, of course, that if we accepted a lower price now, would we really be insulated against a fall in later years?
The Chinese said at Hayman that Australia would be insulated, but in the light of the Stern Hu affair there is limited trust. Companies like Rio Tinto and BHP want to maximise current gains and BHP, in particular is pressing for market pricing – the reverse of what China seeks. The Chinese repeated that they wanted a long-term trade agreement with Australia and obviously the price of iron ore would be part of it.
Although Australia has approved the vast majority of Chinese proposals to invest in Australia, there is clearly a belief in China that we take an unrealistically tough view of Chinese investment.
We have always been proud of our democratic institutions but China took the Australian election as an example of the shortcoming in the Western democratic system. While emphasising that they did not want to be critical, they pointed to the cost of the system and the difficulty for governments in taking a long-term view. The message was clear – do not criticise the Chinese system.
It was also clear that there were some underlying difficulties in the Chinese economy. While China had sufficient land to feed the population there were problems with the supply of water, while those living in rural areas were paid at rates equal to about one third of those that were working in the cities.
It seems that China wants to cut unoccupied apartment prices by about 10 to 15 per cent and to achieve this the government developers to sell their stocks. China is undertaking all sorts of measures to force these dwellings onto the market at prices that buyers can afford. And this is one of the factors behind the fluctuations in the Shanghai composite index.
If China does reduce its housing prices, the Australian housing market will emerge as one of the few developed countries where house prices have not been corrected as part of the global financial crisis.
Meanwhile, the days of China growth rates approaching 10 per cent have gone. It creates just too many problems. We are going to see growth rates of around or a little below 9 per cent in the a years ahead. Eight per cent seems to be a floor.
Of course not. The Fed has been buying them up with monopoly money.
The Federal Reserve has been printing money to “buy” treasury bonds for months because the treasury is auctioning far more bonds than anyone wants to buy.
Of course, the fact that they are patent liars could also add a different dimension to what they are saying about Zhou.
“This will prove disastrous in every other way, offsetting any benefit one may derive from being “locked in”. Don’t fool yourself.”
Durring the Carter years of high interest I had my best years financially both personally and in my construction business!
Somehow we are going to have to figure out how to deal with China. They been manipulating their currency and our fair access to their market for decades creating a huge trade debt.
This has already become a major security liability for the United States as our industrial base has been dismantled and shipped over to China. How are we suppose to defend ourselves?
The Chinese government has been pocketing most of the cash of their communist slave labor. Thats a huge amount of money to throw around and cause economic havoc and/or buy disabling favor just prior to an attack.
During the Carter years, my subcontracting business was a crap shoot. I didn’t know in the morning what my materials cost would be that afternoon, much less a year later when the fixed price structure was actually built.
The only certainty was prices would be increased.
“Don’t kid yourself. Once these rates increase bc of China, they will be permanently increased.”
Good!!!!
I never borrow money but occasionally lend it.
When interest was 18% I loaned a guy $50k and after collecting @ 18% for 2 years converted it into a 20% interest in 7 acres in City of Industry. A year later it was sold and my 20% was $146k.
Other than our home I’ve never borrowed one cent, personal or business in my 73 years.
Are the wheels about to come off the economy?>>>>>>>>>>>
Could very well be! Its Obama’s goal to comtrol the markets, using tinkering from the Fed, and his cadre of Muslim bankers along with Soros. Who do you think caused the 500 billion dollar electronic bank run on Sept 18 , 2008?The fed has kept that a closely guarded secret, and that run caused the international economic and banking collapse, scared the bejassus out of Bush, McCain, and Congress, so that Obama began to run monetary policy even before he was elected. GROSS! It pretty much handed the election to Obama.
Look for more of this crap as long as we have fascists in office, and cowardly administrators who knuckle under to them ( they should be squealing to the consevative press, whats left of it.)
The bank list that caused that Sept 18th run should have been made public long ago, but the reason it is still secret us simple. THEY WANT TO DO IT AGAIN.
And if they do, the wheels will indeed come of the economy,precipitate a purposeful market crash to end the affluence of middle class America, and then the American public is supposed to run to Obama for salvation. If that happens, then I am afraid a revolution may be necessary to get rid of these fascists who now have become a parasitic plague on our nation.
If such a crisis occurs,American conservatives had better be prepared to reveal to all how and why it was caused, immediately!
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html
Since they used our dollars to buy up and move our factories (and jobs) to China, I'd say they did.
Pretty bad when the communists understand capitalism far better than we do.
And that the supply would vanish...
If they think BO is a life preserver they'll soon find out that the *life preserver* he throws to them is made of lead.
The Saviour image of Obama is false, and created out of whole cloth by the MSM.
But about 40% of America still believes it. They will be the ones to have the lead life preserver.The rest of us will fight instead of drowning.
Perhaps this is natural selection at work.
Anyone who believes Obama and the MSM today is in danger of getting the Darwin Award.You can tell most of the time that even the broadcasters these days do not believe the recited Obama talking points.Its actually quite laughable.Each one of them has their little safety bolt hole ready.
Yet they continue to feed the propaganda to the 40% of America who still trust Obama and the MSM. 60% of us never listen to Obama or the MSM anymore, except for a joke.
Thank you for your reply.
For what it’s worth, I read Karl Denninger’s Market Ticker, and he has been a junk yard dog about uncovering the genesis of this banking collapse, and is adament, that until we see some Big Names doing the perp walk, we will see this again, as you have stated.
We have an oligarch problem, just as Russia did after the fall of Communism, a cadre of people who have looted the treasury.
We just don’t know their names.
All wars are economic in motive and in deed . War is a power force to survive or thrive economically . Destroy the enemies economy and you win
I have a wacko theory that 911 was the opening shot by mercenaries(islamic radicals) to draw the US into an expensive money draining conflict, financed by the perpetrators (big banking), enter the appeasers (US political system) to the rescue with "stimulus" (enslaving the US taxpayer)
the motive being to gain absolute control of the production and distribution of US wealth and power (the definition of socialism)
That sounds like the back story of most conflicts in recent history: the bankers and the arms merchants make their fortunes off the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
Just what the Chinese did before they attacked India and seized the Himalaya passes. Used Krishna Menon, the Indian defense minister and a Communist, to paralyze the Indian army for hours, even days.
Sounds like we both lost. On the other hand, we now have fewer skilled workers and they have more.
Obama coddles America's dangerous enemies.
When America's dangerous enemies try to take America down, where do you think the warheads will land? In the middle of Magic's supporters.
Say goodnight, Gracie.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.