Posted on 09/09/2010 5:24:50 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
How can Palin's endorsement "won't matter in Delaware", and at the same time "hurt in some areas" and "cost us that Senate seat"?
If Palin's endorsement doesn't matter, the polls say "Castle will win easily", yada, yada, yada, then what's all the caterwauling all about from these Castle supporters? Just wait until Tuesday night, see Castle winning 60-40, and party like it's 1999.
Or is there something else I'm missing?
Like Holy Water tossed on vampires.
Yes, but they're spending resources in a BLUE STATE. So let O'Donnell win!
70 percent, maybe; 28 percent, no way.
All I know about Castle is that he pretty consistently votes with the dems, including Obama.
All I know about O’Donnell is that all the people who DO know something and whom I respect, including Sarah Palin and Rush are for her.
So this happens next Tuesday. Let’s hope she wins. If she does win the primary, she will win the general. The dems put a stalking horse out there, which kinda shows what they think of Castle.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/246031/o-donnell-and-battle-delaware-robert-costa?page=2
In an odd interview with The Weekly Standard last week, O’Donnell claimed, without proof or a police report in hand, that her home and office were vandalized by Castle apparatchiks. “They’re following me,” she told reporter John McCormack. “They follow me home at night. I make sure that I come back to the townhouse and then we have our team come out and check all the bushes and check all the cars to make sure that — they follow me.”
Indeed, as her campaign has gained national attention, O’Donnell clearly has become spooked, to the chagrin of her enthusiastic supporters. She has accused a conservative talk-radio host, who previously had endorsed her, of being “paid off,” and questioned the integrity of Rasmussen’s latest poll because, well, its numbers show her losing. A former senior aide for her campaign has also muddied the field with an unseemly web video that asks whether Castle has been unfaithful to his wife. O’Donnell, for her part, quickly distanced herself from the video, but the taint remains.
O’Donnell’s complicated résumé has also done her few favors. It was reported by Politico last week that she received her bachelor’s degree from Fairleigh Dickinson University this summer — after previously claiming that she was already a graduate. Her past explanation for the lack of a diploma — her unpaid loans — was also debunked by the political website, which discovered that unfulfilled coursework also played a part. To add to the hurt, it was discovered that O’Donnell was previously mired in an uncomfortable gender-discrimination lawsuit with the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, a conservative organization in Wilmington.
The states where Obama won by the widest margin in 2008 (excluding DC where he won 93% to 7% but which doesn’t get senators)
1) Hawaii: Obama 72%, McCain 27%, margin of 45%
2) Vermont: Obama 68%, McCain 31%, margin of 37%
3) Rhode Island: Obama 63%, McCain 35%, margin of 28%
4) New York: Obama 63%, McCain 36%, margin of 27%
5) Massachusetts: Obama 62%, McCain 36%, margin of 26%
6) (tie) Delaware, Maryland: Obama 62%, McCain 37%. margin of 25%
2008 Delaware at large congressional results: (R) Mike Castle 61.1%, (D) Karen Hartley-Nagle 38.0%, margin of 23.1 %
Current polling:
9/2 Rasmussen: (R) Mike Castle 48%, (D) Chris Coons 37%, margin of 11%
9/2 Rasmussen: (R) Christine O’Donnell 36%, (D) Chris Coons 47%, margin of -11%.
There’s no question who is more electable. Castle won by 23% in 2008 when the state went for Obama by 25%. He’s leading by 11 points in the only recent public poll, while O’Donnell is trailing by that same 11%.
While I would prefer that Delaware elected O’Donnell, the two candidates who have a chance are Castle and Coons, and I definitely would take Castle over Coons.
The objective evidence is she has the same chance as an ice cube on a Phoenix street in August. People are getting too emotionally involved in this. Clouds the judgment.
Rasmussen Reports ^ | September 6, 2010
Election 2010: Delaware Senate
Mike Castle (R) 48%
Chris Coons (D) 37%
Some Other Candidate 6%
Not Sure 9%
Election 2010: Delaware Senate
Christine O’Donnell (R) 36%
Chris Coons (D) 47%
Some Other Candidate 8%
Not Sure 9%
August 06, 2010 | Rasmussen
Castle picking up 49% of the vote, while Democrat Chris Coons gets 37% support. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.
Christine O’Donnell, who is challenging Castle for the GOP Senate nomination in a September 14 primary, now runs 10 points behind Coons. The Democrat gets 46% of the vote to O’Donnell’s 36%. Ten percent (10%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. Last month, O’Donnell was running virtually even with Coons, 41% to 39%.
“I notice that your weird-things-can-happen argument conveniently fails to address the fact that day before yesterday Rasmussen said as follows:”
It is not weird. It happens over and over again, as I point out above. And historical trends are a lot more accurate than off year election polls, especially those taken three months before an election. (In July Ras had COD up over Coons, 41-39.) The election is in November. Haven’t you heard? The GOP has a 25% lead in voter intensity in back to back weeks in Gallup. Her chances are just fine, and you know it. you prefer Castle. that is your right. Try not to cry too hard when he loses.
“It is fine to talk about “wave” elections and such; but we are in whatever wave exists, and that wave obviously ain’t doing the trick for O’Donnell.”
Obvious to whom? She hasn’t even won the primary yet. I wouldn’t expect her to be leading at this point. She has yet to debate the Marxist Coons and do comparison ads, and he will have a lot of explaining to do. This is a bad year to be a Marxist anywhere.
Exactly. The handful of RINOs have their math, but our math is more complex, takes in far more factors and honestly tries to accurate weigh them, and it’s absolutely clear that we should support Christine 100%.
You’re saying, in a way, that it would be better to have
Angle and Coons instead of
Reid and Castle.
(not implying Christine would lose, just that the top is an improvement over the bottom.
I’m fairly confident Christine will win on Tuesday. I will say this. If Christine loses by more than 10 on Tuesday, I would be shocked. I’d say “whaaa?” If Castle lost by 20 on Tuesday, I wouldn’t be too surprised I’d say “hmmm, I guess Palin has plenty of power, even in the Northeast / Midatlantic, or I guess Republican voters really don’t like Liberals ... or I knew the voters would like Christine or all of these things and more.
Looking at it today, there are a lot of reasons to think Christine will win.
1) Palin endorsement. I don’t know exactly what all the effects will be. But there will be a lot of them.
2) Latest Tea Party Poll. About a week ago, the tea party had a poll with Christine down by 2 with likely voters.
Christine is down by 2 (or even 10), and the Palin factor
wouldn’t add on 10 points?
3) GOP Desperation tactics. Suing the tea party for doing what they’ve done everywhere else. Why didn’t the incumbents think of this before? Because it’s ridiculous.
The only reason they’d do it is because they know they’re going to lose, and they’re throwing some really really weird hail marys at this time. Quarterback drops back to pass, and throws ... is that a cat? They’ve been embarrassing themselves and pissing off conservatives all across the county. Even the NRSC was involved, in a race without an incumbent. Their internal polling must be really really bad for them to do this. Does the GOP really want to embarrass themselves for Castle.
4) The NRSC left earlier this week. They said “oh we’re confident” which is what they should say. They can’t say “oh we’re scared, but we’re pissing people off just by being here, it’s backfiring on us, and we don’t want Castle’s stench on us”
In Castle’s favor
1) The DE GOP and Castles attacks on Christine’s poverty, and her response to harrassment by the DE GOP and Castle could have some positive effect for Castle.
2) Electability Argument? - Is Not Working
NO MORE RINOs beats their unproven theory that this year the people really want a more liberal career politician. And there are plenty of arguments that Christine is actually the more electable.
Pretty excited about all this, and pleased that there is certainly no need for me to post my Christine pic to get the name id up.
“The Democrats all over the web are literally jumping for joy because of this announcement.”
Freedom warrior knows this becasue he visits the Dem Sites regularly. His posts on COD seem to indicate that he makes war on freedom, rather than in favor of it.
Have you already joined Snowe ‘12?
You can practice saying “oh Maine is too liberal for a conservative Republican”
Love having to read your passionate defense of liberal career politician Mike Castle.
Has there ever been a Liberal Republican that you didn’t like?
2008 is not 2010. Off year election. Completely different year. Completely different electorate will show up at the polls in 2010. There has been a sea change in attitudes EVERYWHERE. If this seat was a gimme for the Dems, then Beau Biden would have run for it. The fact that he did not and waited till 2014 suggests that he did not want to risk losing in what is going to be a very bad Democrat year.
The Dems know they are in for rough sledding and not just in Mississippi and in Alabama. Did Massachusetts and New Jersey establish anything? No Dem is safe ANYWHERE this year, ESPECIALLY a non-incumbent.
As I posted elsewhere, there was a July Rasmussen poll that had O’Donnell leading Coons and she can regain that lead. Coons is very far left, further left than Biden, and this is a bad year to be running as a hard leftist. If it were a good year, Barbara Boxer would be safely ahead in California and Patty Murray would have nothing to worry about in Washington. As it stand today, both will likely lose to conservative opponents.
There has been no campaign against Coons yet. He was supposed to be the sacrificial lamb to Castle. I think he has a lot of baggage that is going to bite him in the general. And Christine O’Donnell, in spite of some of the smear merchants, is a very good candidate.
Good post. There are also things to consider on the Dem side. They had written this seat off. Coons was a sacrificial lamb. Now, with the number of Dem incumbents in serious trouble, how much help are they going to be able to give to Coons? For a seat they had written off anyway? They may be ‘ahead in fundraising’, but that’s meaningless when you look at the number of races that are in serious peril. And as a second-tier candidate, his fundraising base is probably not very large.
Then again, she’s not exactly rolling in cash either.
The biggest problem here is that our own guys are going around and calling her too extreme to win. The financial stuff is small potatoes. It’ll be yesterday’s news by the end of the primaries and useless to her opponent.
I wrestled with this one, because I didn’t trust some of her answers on a few things, but supporting Christine is the right thing to do. Sometimes, doing the right thing makes it harder to win, but if you don’t, you lose anyway.
Very spot on analysis. Good to hear from you again.
Are you fully aware of Castles voting record? He will most certainly rubber stamp those lib type justices just like Gramnesty and the other Rinos. A majority is worthless if the votes are not there to stop or pass anything. Time to weed the garden now. We will not have any quick solution to Obummer or the congress we have any time soon.
Good to hear from you too. :)
I do think she’ll beat Castle. I also think DE is ready to vote for a Republican. They just aren’t sure that Christine is the right one and they’ve heard a few bad things from the RINO contingent. IF (big if) the establishment people will get behind Christine when she wins, this is winnable. It’s far from a sure thing, but we’ve got a damn good shot at it.
>>> Have you already joined Snowe ‘12?
Lashing out with senseless non-sequitors doesn’t change the independent poll results. As I said, people are overly emotionally involved. To me this is an election, not a jihad.
As for Snowe, when the time comes if the evidence is that she will win I’ll admit it, and if the evidence is that she will lose I’ll admit it. That’s called living in the real world.
It really isn’t a badge of honor to go around applying fantasyland standards when you are discussing important matters. Not in 2012 and not in 2010.
I could be wrong. Upsets happen. But by definition they aren’t likely, and there are no signs one is developing. And time has about run out.
Castle would be on the Democrats side.
No one can say who will win, that is why we have elections.
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