Skip to comments.Why Christine O'Donnell CAN win this November (Wave Election+Open Seat)
Posted on 09/09/2010 5:24:50 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
The main knock, in fact the only legitimate knock, on Christine O'Donnell as the GOP nominee in Delaware is that she cannot win in the November election. Delaware is a blue state, and Christine O'Donnell is very conservative. Delaware's senior Senator was, after all, Joe Biden. Surely no conservative could hope to capture the "Biden seat". Well, could they?
If history provides any clues (and it usually does) Christine O'Donnell stands an excellent chance of winning this seat in November. There are two reasons why her electoral prospects are sunnier than one might suppose, given Delaware's recent voting patterns.
First,and foremost: 2010 is by all measures shaping up to be a "wave election", perhaps the mother of all "wave" elections. In a wave election, not a few candidates win where they should not win and still others lose where one would not suppose they would. In modern times, we have seen two gigantic wave elections, in 1980(Reagan) and 1994 (the GOP takeover of Congress after a 40 year hiatus), a slightly smaller one in 1974 (Watergate)and miniwaves in 1986 and 2006 (the last cycle of two term Presidents).
To illustrate the power of back to back wave elections both to give and to take away, consider 1974 and 1980. In 1974, the Democrats added only three Senate Seats to their total of 59. But may of their endangered liberal incumbents in Red States survived, including George McGovern, who had lost South Dakota in 1972 to Richard Nixon by 10 points but won reelection comfortably by 6. Frank Church, the liberal from deeply red Idaho, won reelection by 14 points in the 1974 wave. And Birch Bayh of Indiana won reelection by 5 in deep red Indiana. In 1980, however, spurred on by Reagan's onslaught, the wave flowed in the opposite direction. McGovern lost by 19 to Jim Abdnor. The liberal Church (aided by incumbency) was edged by only 1 point by Steve Symms, and Birch Bayh lost by 6 to Dan Quayle. And GOP Senators who had barely won( by less than a point) in 1974 (such as Dole in red Kansas and Laxalt in red Nevada)won by 26 and 21 respectively. Liberals Gaylord Nelson (in blue Wisconsin) and Warren Magnuson (in blue Washington) who both won in 1974 with over 60% were defeated by first time GOP candidates.
Similarly, in the miniwave election of 1986, many of the first time winners in 1980, even in red states, were swept out by far more liberal candidates, including Paula Hawkins in Florida (to Bob Graham); Mack Mattingly in Georgia (to liberal Wyche Fowler); Jim Abdnor in South Dakota (to liberal Tom Daschle). Patrick Leahy who hung on by the skin of his teeth in 1980 49.8% to 48.5%, crushed a former governor by 30 points in 1986.
There are even more recent examples. In 1994, conservative, Federalist Society founder Spencer Abraham won in deep blue Michigan as did social conservative icon Rich Santorum in blue Pennsylvania.
The second dynamic which favors an O'Donnell upset is the absence of an incumbent. Incumbent Democrats in Blue states and Incumbent Republicans in Red States can frequently stand against the headwind of a wave election. As pointed out above, Dole and Laxalt survived in 1974; Leahy in 1980. All three romped the next time they faced a favorable wave. If Christine O'Donnell is the nominee, she will be further assisted by the lack of a really stellar opponent. The Democrats had effectively conceded the race to Mike Castle and Beau Biden had stood down, waiting for a much surer bet in 2014, when Castle would retire. Chris Coons was a sacrificial lamb, and an O'Donnell nomination will catch the Democrats flatfooted with an untested candidate who has never run statewide and who is a hard leftist with Marxist sympathies that may not go over so well in corporation friendly Delaware:
Coons took 'bearded Marxist' turn
My point is that, with the approach of a wave election of historic proportions and the absence of a marquee challenger, much less an incumbent, the stars are beginning to align for Christine O'Donnell. O'Donnell is well positioned to win the Senate seat that is, as I write this, slipping from the grasp of Mike Castle.
Only Tea Party movement supporting her is the Tea Party Express who anyone is on their emails knows how many times they ask for campaign contributions including the night before an election to keep ads on the air. Delaware Tea Party groups are not getting involved which should speak volumes. Without outside influence, ODonnell would be nothing.
As for the Palin endorsement, it wont matter in Delaware and could hurt in some areas. If this group of out of staters costs us that Senate seat, I dont want to ever hear from any of them again including Hannity and Levin.
We have a great chance to pick up the seat and with it comes someone who will vote for the Republican Majority Leader and would help get us Committee Chairman. If people dont think that is important, then what are they doing in politics. She is a horrible candidate and every last poll says she cannot win in November in Delaware. I dont think with her baggage she would win in most states.
She was on with Mark Levin tonight. I think he was doing Hannity’s show. I liked her.
At least she is peddling her wares over at Allahpundit’s RINO village. Does anyone listen to her?
This bag can go to hell. Rather lose the senate minus the full out lib Castle and with the Dim. This argument is wearing thin since 2012 has some far better GOP senate races to make up the difference from this year.
In the meantime Obama can replace Justice Kennedy and Justice Scalia with another Sotomayor and Kagan.
We're in a fight for liberty and our country and the establishment is worried about committee chairmanships. They can KMA.
“In the meantime Obama can replace Justice Kennedy and Justice Scalia with another Sotomayor and Kagan.”
And Castle would prevent his exactly how?
You should read that thread. Absolutely pathetic. Full of Castle apologists.
The only Republicans to the left of Castle are the “Dingbat Twins.” Castle had an ACU rating of 28 in 2008. Specter had a 40 in 2008. Is it smart to support a Republican who makes Arlen Specter look like Ronald Reagan (by comparison)?
“You should read that thread. Absolutely pathetic. Full of Castle apologists.”
Not surprising from Allahpundit and co. I don’t post over there. I did once long ago and have forgotten screen name and password. if Anyone wants to post this vanity with the historical proof that COD can win, they will have my blessing.
Because a Republican Majority could use procedural rules to tie up nominees in Committee, without a majority, this cannot happen.
I have noticed that a Palin endorsement generates something akin to a banshee squall from RINOs and leftists. They remind me of a herd of stuck pigs.
And if he Jeffords the GOP? Not a good argument, IMHO. You always win when you elect conservatives.
“Because a Republican Majority could use procedural rules to tie up nominees in Committee, without a majority, this cannot happen.”
If Castle is the deciding vote, he will flip to the Dems just as Jeffords and Specter did and Murkowski is in the process of doing. Castle need never face the voters again. He doesn’t give a hoot about conservatives.
What is the world makes you trust him? How many times do conservatives need to be stabbed in the back?
And anyway, the point of this post is that Christine O’Donnell can win in November. Mike Castle will be his yacht somewhere. He is about to become extinct.
O’Donnell cannot win in Delaware. Period. The Democrats all over the web are literally jumping for joy because of this announcement. They know that their only chance to hold the Delaware Senate seat is for O’Donnell to win the primary.
As for Castle being the “deciding vote”, he wouldn’t have the chance. He’s not getting the judiciary committee.
Castle has said he wants to CHANGE some of those procedural rules. Guess which party he wants to screw?
You just keep on believing that. You are a defeatist!
Thanks. A good argument. And I would add that Castle is not just an ordinary RINO, but well to the left of many Democrats. I wouldn’t put it past him to vote for another Sotomayor, for Cap and Trade, or for anything else Obama puts forward.
“ODonnell cannot win in Delaware. Period.”
Sure. Spencer Abraham couldn’t win in Michigan. And how did Santorum win two terms in PA which is more liberal than Delaware? How in the world did a leftist like Tom Daschle win in SD over and over?
The list is endless. It is less important WHERE you run than WHEN you run. Address the Vanity on the merits. I have given you umpteen exapmles of Dems winning in Red States and GOPers winning in deep blue states. If incumbents in deep blue California and Washington are behind, then how can you say that a challenger in Delaware (which is certainly less blue than California and Washington) is a sure thing? That is Castle’s talking point but it can’t stand scrutiny.
Reagan won Delaware twice vby larege margins.
Can you provide evidence that O’Donnell will win, besides your blind faith and bold assertions?
I used to think that we needed to vote for the candidate with the best chance who was closest to our philosophy.
Now I think that its time to work for the most conservative candidate in every election. If its time for this nation to get back as close as we can to our founding principals and a nation under God then God will help us.
Its time to vote the most conservative candidate running and if its Gods will that candidate will win with His help.
Why don’t you address the historical evidence in the vanity post? No one can prove a future event. Past history provides proof and you have not addressed it.
1. O'Donnell isn't Reagan.
2. Michigan and Pennsylvania are MUCH more Conservative than Delaware. Asserting otherwise is absolutely laughable. Delaware is one of the most liberal States in the entire nation. Pennsylvania and Michigan are actually quite socially conservative.
3. Incumbents in Washington and California are behind because they are running against very well funded, extremely competent candidates, who are a much closer ideological match for the respective States.
4. Can you show any evidence whatsoever that O'Donnell can win in Delaware, especially when we take into account that she has done nothing but crash and burn in her prior runs for office, that she has ethical baggage and that she has been caught in a number of blatant lies.
So O'Donnell's past electoral history provides evidence? OK, thank you. She's not viable then.
Of course O’Donnell can win the general. I can also encounter the Virgin Mary tomorrow. Or win the lottery. Life is full of surprises.
Every sensible Republican that I know in DE is proudly voting for Castle on Tuesday and again in November. Castle can easily nail down this Senate seat for the GOP - an immediate +1 pickup. Per NRO and my own experience, Castle is very good on fiscal issues, is a spending and deficit hawk, and is exceptional on foreign policy and defense issues. Castle voted AGAINST the Obama stimulus. Castle voted AGAINST Obamacare. Castle FAVORS making the Bush tax cuts permanent and freezing or cutting federal spending.
Yes, Castle cast a HORRIBLE vote for cap and trade. So be it. He has been wrong on various environmental issues for years.
As was seen last December over the health care battle, not one RINO caved under enormous pressure from Reid and the MSM. Snowe, Collins, every Republican stayed in camp. By contrast, all the so-called conservative RATS caved.
I will take a sure-thing electable Republican who agrees with me 70 percent of the time over a Democrat who agrees with me zero percent of the time every day of the week. Castle will also provide critical down-ballot coattails in November, including the critical State legislative races + State Treasurer, where a true conservative has a good shot - Colin Bonini.
Fortunately, the Castle machine is primed for battle and will bury O’Donnell on Tuesday.
If hard core freepers don’t agree, so be it. We’ll agree on many other matters in the days to come.
>>>Only Tea Party movement supporting her is the Tea Party Express <<<
PhiKapMom is full of HotAir!
EVERY Tea Party group in Delaware is supporting her - however they never ‘endorse’ anyone!
Some Tea Party groups do endorse candidates - There are a whole bunch - like Independence Mall, and many others from out of state - Saw one endorsement from a group in South Carolina...
Anyone who thinks that the Palin endorsement won’t matter is delusional!
She obviously has missed the ABC masses (Anybody But Castle) thousands will NOT vote for him if nominated!
(There IS a Libertarian in the race) A message is being sent - is the Republican party smart enough to listen?)
“Can you show any evidence whatsoever that O’Donnell can win in Delaware, especially when we take into account that she has done nothing but crash and burn in her prior runs for office, that she has ethical baggage and that she has been caught in a number of blatant lies.”
O’Donnell isn’t Reagan? Who knew? Mind if I quote you?
You really like Mike Castle don’t you? Enough to go on this site and smear Christine O’Donnell. Let me tell you something. Castle is going to lose. FR is not fertile ground for his kind of leftist in any case.
Sarah Palin’s endorsement means he is going to lose. In fact he was losing even before it. But he is going to lose now. You may as well pack up your traveling medicine show and go elsewhere.
“Fortunately, the Castle machine is primed for battle and will bury ODonnell on Tuesday.”
The Murkowski machine and the GOP in AL were primed for battle too. And they had held the Senate Seat in Alaska even longer than castle has been in Congress.
I didn’t gloat at some of the Freepers here who predicted that Murk would crush Miller. But I am going to remind you how wrong you are in making this prediction. The Delaware Freepers here, including MLF, Delawhere and De Conservative are saying just what the AK freepers were saying before Miller shocked the world. I trust ther view of matters on te ground more than you and your “sensible” Republicans. Are these the Repubs who oppose the 2nd Amendment and support cap nd tax and tax fund ed abortion and don’t want to repeal Obamacare like Castle?
Murkowski stupidly got on the wrong side of an abortion issue just weeks b4 her primary. No such ballot initiative exists in DE next week.
Suit yourself and argue with me all you like. I respect your opinion but I do not agree with it.
Every moment you waste time on this and other threads means that you are not knocking doors or working phone banks for O’Donnell.
the rinos tell us we should not cut our nose to spite our face, but when they lose the primary, they’ll do exactly that. They throw a tantrum and make sure any gop candidate don’t win by constantly attacking him/her
What were the 2008 ratings of Collins and Snowe?
No, I actually don't. However, pragmatically accept that he's as good as we can get in the cesspool that is Delaware.
Enough to go on this site and smear Christine ODonnell. Let me tell you something. Castle is going to lose.
She smears herself with her blatant lies and her ethical baggage. She did that to herself.
FR is not fertile ground for his kind of leftist in any case.
Sarah Palins endorsement means he is going to lose.
Oh, of course. She can do no wrong, right?
In fact he was losing even before it.
The polls say otherwise.
But he is going to lose now. You may as well pack up your traveling medicine show and go elsewhere.
So do you want to silence dissent? How liberal of you.
“Murkowski stupidly got on the wrong side of an abortion issue just weeks b4 her primary. No such ballot initiative exists in DE next week.”Every moment you waste time on this and other threads means that you are not knocking doors or working phone banks for ODonnell.”
If she had been as far ahead as was assumed and confidently predicted, no abortion initiative could have taken her out. People weren’t even predicting a close race.
Bear this in mind on Castle. He hasn’t had a contested GOP primary since his first run for Congress 18 years ago. and that was before his left wing voting record. He doesn’t want to defend his record and has resorted to smearing O’Donnell instead.
“Every moment you waste time on this and other threads means that you are not knocking doors or working phone banks for ODonnell.”
I hpe I am not wasting my time, and I don’t think I am. If there is historical evidence that a conservative such as O’Donnell can win in a blue state in a “red wave” year (and there is), I think it helps to post it so that people realize that she can win.
Anyway, I respect your opinion too. You have tried to promote Castle by pointing out some positives. Others have just tried to tear O’Donnell down, which is counterproductive. It does not win Castle votes and it potentially damages O’Donnell. If she is the nominee, i know all freepers will wish her well in the General.
I notice that your weird-things-can-happen argument conveniently fails to address the fact that day before yesterday Rasmussen said as follows:
“The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Castle earning 48% of the vote, while Coons gets 37% support. . . . Coons leads conservative activist Christine ODonnell, who is challenging Castle for the GOP Senate nomination in a primary next Tuesday, by a 47% to 36% margin. Last month, Coons held a similar 46% to 36% lead over ODonnell after the candidates were virtually tied in July.”
It is fine to talk about “wave” elections and such; but we are in whatever wave exists, and that wave obviously ain’t doing the trick for O’Donnell.
Can you provide evidence that ODonnell won’t win, besides your blind faith and bold assertions?
I just went to the acu website and looked at Castle Collins and Snowe.
I looked at 6 years - 2004 - 2009
0000 sn co ca
2009 48 48 56
2008 12 20 28
2007 28 36 20 castle worst
2006 36 48 52
2005 32 32 28 castle worst
2004 60 68 52 castle worst
In 3 out of the last 6 years, Castle was worse than Snowe and Collins. In 2 of the last 6, Snowe was the worst. In 1, Snowe and Collins were tied.
If those 6 years were averaged, Snowe would be the worst, Collins would be the best, and Castle would be in the middle. Snowe and Collins vote pretty much the same, but Collins in the same or better than Snowe in all years.
The Palin endorsement will bring it on home.
Palin vs the establishment, who will win?
How can Palin's endorsement "won't matter in Delaware", and at the same time "hurt in some areas" and "cost us that Senate seat"?
If Palin's endorsement doesn't matter, the polls say "Castle will win easily", yada, yada, yada, then what's all the caterwauling all about from these Castle supporters? Just wait until Tuesday night, see Castle winning 60-40, and party like it's 1999.
Or is there something else I'm missing?
Like Holy Water tossed on vampires.
Yes, but they're spending resources in a BLUE STATE. So let O'Donnell win!
70 percent, maybe; 28 percent, no way.
All I know about Castle is that he pretty consistently votes with the dems, including Obama.
All I know about O’Donnell is that all the people who DO know something and whom I respect, including Sarah Palin and Rush are for her.
So this happens next Tuesday. Let’s hope she wins. If she does win the primary, she will win the general. The dems put a stalking horse out there, which kinda shows what they think of Castle.
In an odd interview with The Weekly Standard last week, ODonnell claimed, without proof or a police report in hand, that her home and office were vandalized by Castle apparatchiks. Theyre following me, she told reporter John McCormack. They follow me home at night. I make sure that I come back to the townhouse and then we have our team come out and check all the bushes and check all the cars to make sure that they follow me.
Indeed, as her campaign has gained national attention, ODonnell clearly has become spooked, to the chagrin of her enthusiastic supporters. She has accused a conservative talk-radio host, who previously had endorsed her, of being paid off, and questioned the integrity of Rasmussens latest poll because, well, its numbers show her losing. A former senior aide for her campaign has also muddied the field with an unseemly web video that asks whether Castle has been unfaithful to his wife. ODonnell, for her part, quickly distanced herself from the video, but the taint remains.
ODonnells complicated résumé has also done her few favors. It was reported by Politico last week that she received her bachelors degree from Fairleigh Dickinson University this summer after previously claiming that she was already a graduate. Her past explanation for the lack of a diploma her unpaid loans was also debunked by the political website, which discovered that unfulfilled coursework also played a part. To add to the hurt, it was discovered that ODonnell was previously mired in an uncomfortable gender-discrimination lawsuit with the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, a conservative organization in Wilmington.
The states where Obama won by the widest margin in 2008 (excluding DC where he won 93% to 7% but which doesn’t get senators)
1) Hawaii: Obama 72%, McCain 27%, margin of 45%
2) Vermont: Obama 68%, McCain 31%, margin of 37%
3) Rhode Island: Obama 63%, McCain 35%, margin of 28%
4) New York: Obama 63%, McCain 36%, margin of 27%
5) Massachusetts: Obama 62%, McCain 36%, margin of 26%
6) (tie) Delaware, Maryland: Obama 62%, McCain 37%. margin of 25%
2008 Delaware at large congressional results: (R) Mike Castle 61.1%, (D) Karen Hartley-Nagle 38.0%, margin of 23.1 %
9/2 Rasmussen: (R) Mike Castle 48%, (D) Chris Coons 37%, margin of 11%
9/2 Rasmussen: (R) Christine O’Donnell 36%, (D) Chris Coons 47%, margin of -11%.
There’s no question who is more electable. Castle won by 23% in 2008 when the state went for Obama by 25%. He’s leading by 11 points in the only recent public poll, while O’Donnell is trailing by that same 11%.
While I would prefer that Delaware elected O’Donnell, the two candidates who have a chance are Castle and Coons, and I definitely would take Castle over Coons.
The objective evidence is she has the same chance as an ice cube on a Phoenix street in August. People are getting too emotionally involved in this. Clouds the judgment.
Rasmussen Reports ^ | September 6, 2010
Election 2010: Delaware Senate
Mike Castle (R) 48%
Chris Coons (D) 37%
Some Other Candidate 6%
Not Sure 9%
Election 2010: Delaware Senate
Christine O’Donnell (R) 36%
Chris Coons (D) 47%
Some Other Candidate 8%
Not Sure 9%
August 06, 2010 | Rasmussen
Castle picking up 49% of the vote, while Democrat Chris Coons gets 37% support. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.
Christine ODonnell, who is challenging Castle for the GOP Senate nomination in a September 14 primary, now runs 10 points behind Coons. The Democrat gets 46% of the vote to ODonnells 36%. Ten percent (10%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. Last month, ODonnell was running virtually even with Coons, 41% to 39%.
“I notice that your weird-things-can-happen argument conveniently fails to address the fact that day before yesterday Rasmussen said as follows:”
It is not weird. It happens over and over again, as I point out above. And historical trends are a lot more accurate than off year election polls, especially those taken three months before an election. (In July Ras had COD up over Coons, 41-39.) The election is in November. Haven’t you heard? The GOP has a 25% lead in voter intensity in back to back weeks in Gallup. Her chances are just fine, and you know it. you prefer Castle. that is your right. Try not to cry too hard when he loses.
“It is fine to talk about wave elections and such; but we are in whatever wave exists, and that wave obviously aint doing the trick for ODonnell.”
Obvious to whom? She hasn’t even won the primary yet. I wouldn’t expect her to be leading at this point. She has yet to debate the Marxist Coons and do comparison ads, and he will have a lot of explaining to do. This is a bad year to be a Marxist anywhere.
Exactly. The handful of RINOs have their math, but our math is more complex, takes in far more factors and honestly tries to accurate weigh them, and it’s absolutely clear that we should support Christine 100%.
You’re saying, in a way, that it would be better to have
Angle and Coons instead of
Reid and Castle.
(not implying Christine would lose, just that the top is an improvement over the bottom.
I’m fairly confident Christine will win on Tuesday. I will say this. If Christine loses by more than 10 on Tuesday, I would be shocked. I’d say “whaaa?” If Castle lost by 20 on Tuesday, I wouldn’t be too surprised I’d say “hmmm, I guess Palin has plenty of power, even in the Northeast / Midatlantic, or I guess Republican voters really don’t like Liberals ... or I knew the voters would like Christine or all of these things and more.
Looking at it today, there are a lot of reasons to think Christine will win.
1) Palin endorsement. I don’t know exactly what all the effects will be. But there will be a lot of them.
2) Latest Tea Party Poll. About a week ago, the tea party had a poll with Christine down by 2 with likely voters.
Christine is down by 2 (or even 10), and the Palin factor
wouldn’t add on 10 points?
3) GOP Desperation tactics. Suing the tea party for doing what they’ve done everywhere else. Why didn’t the incumbents think of this before? Because it’s ridiculous.
The only reason they’d do it is because they know they’re going to lose, and they’re throwing some really really weird hail marys at this time. Quarterback drops back to pass, and throws ... is that a cat? They’ve been embarrassing themselves and pissing off conservatives all across the county. Even the NRSC was involved, in a race without an incumbent. Their internal polling must be really really bad for them to do this. Does the GOP really want to embarrass themselves for Castle.
4) The NRSC left earlier this week. They said “oh we’re confident” which is what they should say. They can’t say “oh we’re scared, but we’re pissing people off just by being here, it’s backfiring on us, and we don’t want Castle’s stench on us”
In Castle’s favor
1) The DE GOP and Castles attacks on Christine’s poverty, and her response to harrassment by the DE GOP and Castle could have some positive effect for Castle.
2) Electability Argument? - Is Not Working
NO MORE RINOs beats their unproven theory that this year the people really want a more liberal career politician. And there are plenty of arguments that Christine is actually the more electable.
Pretty excited about all this, and pleased that there is certainly no need for me to post my Christine pic to get the name id up.