Posted on 09/21/2010 5:15:38 PM PDT by gumbyandpokey
The U.S. Senate race in California remains a battle of inches.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state, including leaners, finds incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer earning 47% of the vote, while her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina gets 43% support. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
But the race moves from a Toss-Up to Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.
Earlier this month, the two candidates were virtually tied when leaners were included in the totals, with Fiorina earning 48% support to Boxer’s 47%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.
In surveys since February, Boxer, a member of the Senate since 1993, has earned 42% to 49% of the vote. Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, has picked up 38% to 48% support in those same surveys.
Eighty-two percent (82%) of Boxer supporters say they already know how they will vote in November. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Fiorina voters say the same.
(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in California was conducted on September 20, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers from the California governor's race tomorrow.
Other data from this survey will be released later this week at www.rasmussenreports.com/California.
Boxer is favored by 85% of Democrats, while 80% of Republicans support Fiorina. Voters not affiliated with either major party give a slight edge to the incumbent.
California voters are more evenly divided than voters nationwide when it comes to repealing the health care law. Although 47% of all voters in the state at least somewhat favor repeal, slightly more (49%) oppose repeal. These findings include 38% who Strongly Favor repeal and 41% who are Strongly Opposed.
Eighty-one percent (81%) of those who Strongly Oppose repeal support the Democrat, while 85% of the voters who Strongly Favor repeal back the Republican.
Voters in California place more trust in Democrats to handle the issues of health care and the economy but are more evenly divided when it comes to government ethics and corruption.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters in the state share a favorable opinion of Boxer,but 49% view her unfavorably. These numbers include 24% who have a Very Favorable view of the Democrat and 36% who have a Very Unfavorable opinion of her.
For Fiorina, 47% have a favorable impression of her, including 17% who have a Very Favorable impression. Forty-four percent (44%) regard the Republican unfavorably, with 24% who have a Very Unfavorable view of her.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) in California approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 42% disapprove. Those ratings are better than those found nationally for the president in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In California during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Obama winning the state by a 61% to 34% margin. Obama won 61% to 37%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Kerry leading Bush in California 53% to 43%. Kerry won 54% to 44%.
In the 2006 California governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Arnold Schwarzenegger defeating Phil Angelides 53% to 40%. Schwarzenegger won 56% to 39%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Dianne Feinstein defeating Richard Mountjoy 58% to 35%. Feinstein won 60% to 35%.
Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed Senate races in Alaska, Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in California was conducted on September 20, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
California Survey of 750 Likely Voters September 20, 2010
Election 2010: California Senate
Carly Fiorina (R)
43%
Barbara Boxer (D)
47%
Some other candidate
4%
Not Sure
6% TOP STORIES Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Senate Balance of Power: Dems 51 GOP 45 Toss-Ups 4
52% of Voters Say Their Views Are More Like Palin’s Than Obama’s
Alaska Senate: Miller (R) Holds Double-Digit Lead Over McAdams (D), Murkowski
Delaware Senate: Coons (D) 53%, O’Donnell (R) 42%
West Virginia Senate: Manchin (D) 50%, Raese (R) 43%
Governor Scorecard: GOP 28 Dems 14 Toss-Ups 8
Nevada Senate: Reid (D) 48%, Angle (R) 48%
61% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law
California Senate: Boxer (D) 47%, Fiorina (R) 43%
At this point I am thinking we wont win in any of the western states, except my Nevada.
I’ll be back in CA Nov 2nd to help stop this!
I expect the lead will switch back and forth several times before election day.
this poll has a +4 -4 MOE, thats quite a lot so its actually really tied or they could be the other way round, quite why Rasmussen has moved this to lean Dem, I’ve noticed this with Rasmussen when the Rep is 4 ahead its always a toss up but when its the Dem it moves to lean Dem. I don’t understand why he does that.
I was hoping for a better poll. I hope we havent over hyped. Lets just keep our eye on the ball.
I guarantee that this will bounce back and forth between them all the way until election day. Then the only poll that counts will be taken.
Very sad this evil woman has been leading in every poll but it does not look good. Sad to say we should write off CA but you have to wonder what more can be done with so many people being “stuck on stupid.”
I suspect Murray will win again too. But if Angle can dump Reid then Republicans still have a shot at 51 seats assuming Feingold remains behind in WI. Just maybe we can hope for huge upsets in WV and here in CT.
Fiorina is running her campaign about as well as she ran HP.
agree..does not look good...
turnout is key!
Wait a minute...I thought she was the moderate and would be more electable,,, not that DeVore the conservative...hmmmmm...yet conservative are doing well in WI and WV....go figure
It seems to mean that in Cal the highly turnout helps republicans as the unions will get a base of dems to the polls.
There *might* be some movement to the Dems in certain areas. The generic ballot question has had worse results for the GOP lately, too (Dems +1 in gallup, ppp, AP/Ipsos, youguv). I wonder if O’Donnell might be having some negative effect nationally? She has gotten tons of coverage on all the nightly news broadcasts and cable news shows.
With as bad as many things have gotten in California, if Boxer does in fact win, we ought to demand that California succeed, on the grounds they're too stupid to be a State.
Why would this move to Lean Dem when it’s virtually tied (within margin)? Sometimes, IMO, Ras goes out of his way to appease the Dems (who are always working the ref).
“Very sad this evil woman has been leading in every poll but it does not look good. Sad to say we should write off CA but you have to wonder what more can be done with so many people being “stuck on stupid.”
Stuck on the government teat actually. Caly’s know that their only hope of getting a government bailout is by congress remaining in the Dem’s camp. If the House goes GOP their only remaining hope is with the Senate remaining Dem.
Remember Lucent?
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