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Commodities Are Sizzling, Risks Are Building
Seeking Alpha ^ | 10-13-2010 | Daniel Moser

Posted on 10/13/2010 7:07:22 PM PDT by blam

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1 posted on 10/13/2010 7:07:32 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Check out copper ETF-—COPX-— http://www.google.com/finance?hl=en&q=%22COPX%22&rlz=1B3GGLL_enUS393US393&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=we

SLW is good on silver http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ASLW

GDX and GDXJ are gold miner ETFs


2 posted on 10/13/2010 7:15:13 PM PDT by dennisw (- - - -He who does not economize will have to agonize - - - - - Confuscius.)
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To: blam

“Since the purpose of quantitative easing [by the Fed] is to lower interest rates and push up asset prices, and the market has done just that, what’s the point for the Federal Reserve to actually deliver quantitative easing? It would seem to me there isn’t a point to it.”

They are whistling past the graveyard, IMHO. Made another tidy little sum today. Mama Like!

Keep up the good work, 0bama, et al! You’re makin’ me a wealthy woman as I drag myself (kicking and screaming!) into my Golden Years. :)


3 posted on 10/13/2010 7:18:23 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (Save the Earth. It's the only planet with Chocolate.)
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To: blam

It can be more risky to accept low interest rate returns on your money. Might be better to get into commodity ETFs which will rise with inflation since the USD will be declining relative to commodities. Commodities are traded world wide. Oil silver copper and gold have a worldwide price and the USD is declining relative to them


4 posted on 10/13/2010 7:18:55 PM PDT by dennisw (- - - -He who does not economize will have to agonize - - - - - Confuscius.)
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To: blam

Blam, the fat lady sings on Nov.2nd, and after that,no more surreptitious qantitative easing.Make hay while the field is dry, we won’t be seeing this again for year or more.

he Dow really should be at about 7900, or even less.Its interesting watching money chasing its own tail.I have grabbed off a few tail hairs , a few thousand dollars worth.

And the smart money will be defensive come the 31st of October. All Hallows Eve will break the spell.

And the Fat Lady will indeed sing like an elephant.


5 posted on 10/13/2010 7:19:00 PM PDT by Candor7 (Obama . fascist info..http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html)
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To: dennisw

Much of the rise in commodities is simply the dollar getting weaker. And there is little sign that that trend will be coming to an end.


6 posted on 10/13/2010 7:20:43 PM PDT by Pelham (Islam, the mortal enemy of the free world)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

copper-— COPX (copper ETF)

and FCX (Freeport MacMoran old line copper gold & molybdenum producer)


7 posted on 10/13/2010 7:22:10 PM PDT by dennisw (- - - -He who does not economize will have to agonize - - - - - Confuscius.)
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To: Pelham

Much of the rise in commodities is simply the dollar getting weaker. And there is little sign that that trend will be coming to an end.>>>>>>>>

Weaker USD will soon translate into high gasoline and heating oil prices. Then America will really love Obama. Food prices are higher already


8 posted on 10/13/2010 7:24:36 PM PDT by dennisw (- - - -He who does not economize will have to agonize - - - - - Confuscius.)
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To: blam

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are all hitting new highs in Asia right now. And the dollar tanked this evening.


9 posted on 10/13/2010 7:25:18 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius.)
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To: blam

I believe the rising commodities are going to cause the next big leg down. I think high gasoline prices were the catalyst for everything falling to pieces in 2007/08. The house of cards were stacked high, and $4.50 per gallon gas was like someone trying to sit a baseball on top of it. It did the only thing it could. It just fell apart....

What is so scary about it this time around(unlike 07/08) is the fact that so many people don’t have all of the credit cards to simply charge their higher fuel and food costs to. The higher prices will come straight out of the consumer’s cash flow. This will cause a ripple effect throughout the economy as if you just raised taxes on EVERYTHING that people HAVE to buy.

Another difference between 07/08 and now is unemployment is easily double what it was then. When the higher prices hit those unemployed people, they will be just flat out SCREWED!

You would think the Fed would learn from their mistakes. They flood the economy with currency, and much of it flows into commodities(again), and combined with a weakened dollar, the cost of virtually everything we need for day-to-day living rises! You couldn’t screw the low income/middle class any more if you tried!

Our policy makers truly have painted themselves into a corner I think. I’m by no means at all an expert about such things. I don’t even claim to know much about it, but when someone like me can even see this unfolding, it should be OBVIOUS to those who are supposed to be managing this mess!

God help us....


10 posted on 10/13/2010 7:30:33 PM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: dennisw
Gold Near Parabolic on Hopes of QE2 Starting In November

For those living outside of the U.S., on 2 November the most important U.S. election since 1932 will take place. On that day, U.S. voters may repudiate the Keynesian liberal model of government.
For nearly 80 years Keynesian liberals have been on a path of wealth confiscation and destruction not seen since the Mongol hordes unleashed their terror across Asia and Europe. On 2 November we may, hopefully, witness the beginning of the death of Keynesianism. If not, we still have Gold.

With $Gold in a clear parabolic movement, perfection is now required. Markets are fully anticipating that QE II will explode onto the scene on 3 November. Federal Reserve is expected, by near all market participants, to begin a massive second round of liquidity injections into the U.S. financial system. This action is universally expected to crush the U.S. dollar, and send $Gold into the stratosphere. Nonsensical forecasts for $Gold are the primary byproduct of these expectations, with the latest being a ridiculous one of $8,000.

[snip]

(Ahem, I posted an article earlier that said gold would probably go to $10k an ounce)

11 posted on 10/13/2010 7:30:53 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Is $10,000 Gold Merely An Interim Projection?
12 posted on 10/13/2010 7:32:31 PM PDT by blam
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To: dennisw
Might be better to get into commodity ETFs which will rise with inflation since the USD will be declining relative to commodities.

That's been my strategy for quite a while. Commodity ETFs like DBA (wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar), DBC, the CanRoy oil sands trusts (that are now converting due to Canadian tax law changes), SLV, etc. Gold bars for the lower commissions.

Also, anything to get out of USD. Loonie denominated mostly.

13 posted on 10/13/2010 7:32:46 PM PDT by seowulf ("If you write a whole line of zeroes, it's still---nothing"...Kira Alexandrovna Argounova)
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To: blam

The whole point of quantitative easing is to stimulate economic activity via lowering market interest rates in an effort to induce risk-seeking behavior by consumers, entrepreneurs, and lenders.

To stimulate the economy, Obama must become ‘pro business’ and that ain’t gonna happen. Any effort by Team Obama to appear positive will be seen as purely an act. The damage has been done and there will be little activity until undone.
Some are calling for a ‘Cold War’.


14 posted on 10/13/2010 7:41:15 PM PDT by griswold3 ('Regulation and law without enforcement is no law at all)
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To: blam

The whole point of quantitative easing is to stimulate economic activity via lowering market interest rates in an effort to induce risk-seeking behavior by consumers, entrepreneurs, and lenders.

To stimulate the economy, Obama must become ‘pro business’ and that ain’t gonna happen. Any effort by Team Obama to appear positive will be seen as purely an act. The damage has been done and there will be little activity until undone.
Some are calling this a ‘Cold War’.


15 posted on 10/13/2010 7:41:27 PM PDT by griswold3 ('Regulation and law without enforcement is no law at all)
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To: KoRn

You’re preaching to the choir.
In summer 2008, when fuel prices went sky high, I remember the Dems (Nancy & Harry) looking unconcerned.
If I were a conspiracy theorist, I’d believe that it was just part of the greater plan.
Like you said, if someone like I (we) can see this...


16 posted on 10/13/2010 7:48:52 PM PDT by griswold3 ('Regulation and law without enforcement is no law at all)
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To: blam
The Argentine Boom…And Why It’s Killing The Peso

By Bill Bonner

10/13/10 Buenos Aires, Argentina – “This country is in a boom,” said the editor of a financial magazine in Buenos Aires. “Everything is going up. Everything is selling. And inflation is roaring at 25% per annum.”

To hear him tell it, Argentina is everything America wishes to be. Its people shop. Its restaurants are full. Its economy is growing at more than 8% a year.

Why?

“Inflation. Everyone wants to get rid of cash. You hold onto it and it’s worth less and less. So you buy an apartment.”

Amazingly less than 10% of property transactions in Argentina include mortgages. People pay with cash. Still, prices are not as low as you would expect. The lot next to our office is on the market for $250,000.

“It should be about $100,000,” said a friend who keeps an eye on real estate. “But everything is high.”

The cab ride from the airport was 70 pesos when we came 4 years ago. This time it was 128 euros. Two glasses of wine at a local bar were 40 pesos. They would have been half that a few years ago.

“There’s a boom going on,” continued the financial editor. “But it can’t go on forever. You can’t have 25% inflation and have a healthy economy. People don’t make wise investments. They just try to avoid getting ripped off by inflation. They don’t make long-term investments. They just try to park their money where it won’t disappear.
That’s why real estate is so expensive. People will save their money and buy an apartment whether they need it or not. They figure it will still be there in five or ten years. The peso won’t be. At least not today’s peso.”

Nor will the dollar.

17 posted on 10/13/2010 7:49:02 PM PDT by blam
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To: seowulf

Very nice and “diverse”


18 posted on 10/13/2010 7:52:03 PM PDT by dennisw (- - - -He who does not economize will have to agonize - - - - - Confuscius.)
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To: blam

Anyone have any experience in Canadian denominated securities? There are a few online firms where you can buy in the local markets denominated in the country’s currency.

I am wondering how the CA $ and Aussie $ will hold up when America implodes? Gains in US dollars may be somewhat useless. I have one holding based in Euros and it has done well on currency gains.

Even any average Joes and Janes reading may want to hold international or global funds versus US index funds.

I feel sorry for seniors and baby boomers. I think America is finished. Any people who elect a muslim, allow a victory mosque and watch 6 Saudi owned/controlled/influenced TV networks who own all the channels is doomed.

The US is just too corrupt - the whole judicary is corrupt and military is now too.


19 posted on 10/13/2010 7:52:08 PM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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To: dennisw

He is our own Muslim Mugabe.


20 posted on 10/13/2010 7:55:48 PM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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