My original prediction last February was 80 House seats, 14 Senate. While my Senate number looks high now, I’m not sure that my House number was all that off base.
“My original prediction last February was 80 House seats, 14 Senate. While my Senate number looks high now, I’m not sure that my House number was all that off base.”
Realize that the Senate race started with 19 Democrats and 18 Republicans. For Republicans to gain 14 seats they would have to win 32 seats to 5 for the Democrats. I don’t think there’s ever been a party that dominated a Senate election that badly.
To understand how one-sided that would be, if Republicans won all three sets of Senate seats by the the same ratio, they’d win either 86 or 87 Senate seats.
While my Senate number looks high nowYou may end up closer to that than you think. Fiorina will beat Boxer, Rossi will beat Murray, Angle will beat Reid, McMahon will beat Blumenthal, Johnson over Feingold, Kirk over the mafioso, Buck over Bennet, Paul over Conway, Rubio over Crist/Meeks, Miller over Murkowski/whomever, Toomey over Sestak. This will be a wave. Any Pub within 3-5 points will win, and Pub within 7-9 will be close and might eke it out.