I looked at North Carolina. The Republicans are doing 5 points better than 2004. W won North Carolina big in 2004.
If this was an election year, North Carolina would go 59-41 for the Republican.
North Carolina
56 - 43.6 bush kerry - 12.4 (5.1) = 17.5
49.7-49.38 obama mccain -
2008 2004 2010
Dem 51.4% 48.6% 44.3%
Rep 30.2% 37.4% 38.2%
None 18.5% 14.1% 17.4%
Best Results in North Carolina since 1984 Reagan Landslide.
correction - if this was a Presidential election year.