I believe Rasmussen had Raese up by 5, almost the exact opposite of PPP. I beginning to wonder is Rasmussen has become more of a follower this cycle or not. IF he has, this is troubling - I really thought we had this one in the bag.
“I believe Rasmussen had Raese up by 5, almost the exact opposite of PPP. I beginning to wonder is Rasmussen has become more of a follower this cycle or not. IF he has, this is troubling - I really thought we had this one in the bag.”
Why do you automatically assume that it’s the Rasmussen polling that is wrong, and not the other way around?
See maelstorm’s comment 4 for a more likely reason.
Given that Democrats hold an almost 2 to 1 edge in voter registration in WV, and given the GOP has almost no effective local organization to carry out GOTV campaigns, I think Freepers, including myself, have been a bit over optimistic on this one. Obama is detested in WV, but an almost 90 year tradition of voting D in state and local races is hard to overcome. It is not over, but it is going to hard for Raese to pull it out, especially since the out of state funded attack ads against Manchin seem to have backfired. WV voters do not like what is perceived to be outside carpet baggers.
Nothing is in the bag for anyone this year. All politics is local, and any race can become local even this year. We'll do very well, but there will be dark blots, whether due to fraud, weak patriotic candidates, or bad luck.
Ras has places where he is good and places where he is bad. His polling data is best in states with low minority populations like West Virginia. For some reasons, blacks tend not to take robo polls. So I would trust his numbers most in places like WV but be a bit more skeptical in other states that aren’t as homogeneous.
Come on, West Virginia, you were doing so well... don`t regress. Manchin will be on his knees kissing 0bama`s ring inside of his first week in office!