All politics in America is not local but ultimately racial.
Interestingly a new poll just out shows Barbara boxer down by four. That game is not yet over and I think the Republicans still have a 50-50 chance of taking the Senate.
Posted on 10/26/2010 5:43:28 AM PDT by Kaslin
...if Pajamas Media is still asking, then it’s probable.
I’d say 48 or 49 and would’t be too surprised if we ended up with 47. I hate being pessimistic and will vote and do everything I can but we’re a week away from the election and the races are moving in the wrong direction or remain toss ups. If we were going to take the Senate, I would think we’d see races like WA and CA moving in the GOP direction. Instead, we have races like PA moving in the Dem direction and others remaining toss ups. Toss up = Dems can win by playing their tricks.
The latest polls show Toomey up by 8 points.
I’ve read that every time the House has flipped, so did the Senate. I haven’t researched that myself beyond having read it more than once, but is does seem logical. If someone goes into the booth to vote a Democrat out of the House, they are probably going to vote for a Republican Senator if there is one on the ballot.
I’ve noticed something interesting this cycle. Precious few campaign signs have party affiliation on them. If there is part affiliation, it is Republican. I can’t recall seeing a single sign with a Donkey on it.
It also demonstrates very clearly that this election is not "in the bag", and that conservatives have to fight and scrabble for every last possible vote.
Turnout is the key; it will be extremely interesting to see how those numbers look after November 2nd. Will conservatives have put their "vote where their mouth is"....or not?
TEA Minus 7 Days and Counting.
If half the people who post these horse race threads get out and vote, we will prevail.
Dims want you complacent or discouraged just as long as you stay home!
48 with a Senator Angle sounds better than 50 with Reid still in the Senate if you ask me.
I’ll stand by my prediction that it ends up 50/50.
The reason the Senate would stay Dem is high turnout in urban districts whose House district is Dem regardless. The high turnout in a particular inner-city district won’t change the balance in the House but could tip a statewide Senate seat.
On 11/3, we’ll find out the answer to the question we have voiced thousands of times:
Oh, say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave?
I predict, when the dust is settled, the GOP will have a gain of 6. Well short of a takeover, but enough to dent the 0bama agenda significantly.
Yep. We’re going to have a fairly clear idea of the future of this country by the morning of 3 Nov.
It’s the same way that Algore won the popular vote in 2000 but W won the EC.
The heavily GOP districts in the country are maybe 65/35 GOP to Dem, but the heavily Dem districts in some cities run as high as 85/15 Dem to GOP.
BTW, this guy was stellar and I am proud to call him my senator--now Harkin is another story.
Why does Iowa continue to reelect both Grassley and Harkin to the Senate?
FWIW, Grassley is more popular than Harkin. Grassley is untouchable but Harkin can be defeated.
I had the pleasure of walking with Grassley in a parade. It was wonderful. The people were thrilled to see him. He was getting applause, thumbs up, and hollering. He was smiling all the time and thanking the people. I know why he wins, he's a good man and he's likeable. He's one of us. He's a farmer and knows his roots. He's not an elite like Harkin.
All politics in America is not local but ultimately racial.
Interestingly a new poll just out shows Barbara boxer down by four. That game is not yet over and I think the Republicans still have a 50-50 chance of taking the Senate.
The bottom line is that two years ago the Dems gained a fillibuster proof majority in the Senate. They are on verge of becoming the minority party. Even if we fall one or two seats short, that is a MAJOR victory.
It is worth mentioning that the Republican senators we are getting will be on the whole more conservative. Thus, it will be much easier to hold together enough votes to sustain fillibusters. Voinovich will be gone. Murkowski, gone. Collins, Snowe, Graham and McCain are about the only RINOs left. I would rather have a more ideologically pure GOP Senate and be in the minority than a mish mash of RINOs and in the majority.
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