2010 Electorate Still Looking More Republican Than in the Past (Gallup Sees Tidal Wave)

Gallup ^ | October 27, 2010 | Gallup

[RobinMasters]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year's congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.

[RobinMasters]

[Viking2002]

Great to know the Dims are finally going to get the BOHICA! moment they so richly deserve.

"But know this, that in the last days perilous times will come: for men will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, unloving, unforgiving, slanderers, without self-control, brutal, despisers of good, traitors, headstrong, haughty, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, having a form of godliness but denying its power. And from such people turn away, for his name is Obama."

[snuffy smiff]

Not yet-and you know the scumbags are frauding their worthless asses off in a desperate attempt to steal it!

[MIchaelTArchangel]

The Gallup Poll seems to be indication that Tuesday we will see the Wallup Polls.

[Longbow1969]

These numbers are extraordinary.

If this pans out, we really could see a massive wave along the likes of what Dick Morris has been predicting.

[mwl8787]

Is this essentially stating a 55 R 40 D with 4 undecided on the generic ballot?

[sourcery]

So, over the last 16 years, the moderates decreased by 16 percentiles, while the liberals and conservatives both increased by 8 percentiles each, so half the moderates became self-identified liberals and half became self-identified conservatives. Applying that same ratio to the remaining 32% moderates increases the liberals to 36% and the conservatives to 64%. That seems about right.

[Longbow1969]

Yup, based on a 40% turnout.

Basically the same numbers Gallup released last week, they just look so much more striking in this format.

This spread is actually closer than it was in the Gallup poll a few weeks ago when the R’s were up 18, but these are still tidal wave like numbers.

[SamAdams76]

I gather this is all based on early voting and absentee ballots mailed out. I believe that early voting might be actually oversampling Democrats and that we will see the real “tidal wave” on Election Day itself. My theory is that the suburban voters (many Independent) who have been paying the taxes and getting screwed are going to turn out in droves while much of the urban vote who came out for Obama last time around stay home. After all, they’ve got their color TVs and their food stamps and besides, there’s no Obama to vote for this time around.

[renotse]

Intrade is predicting landslide in House and 48 seats in Senate

[Viking2002]

They could commit so much fraud that a state of emergency could exist and Urkel could suspend the Posse Comitatus Act, but they're gonna bend over this time. NO QUARTER!

"But know this, that in the last days perilous times will come: for men will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, unloving, unforgiving, slanderers, without self-control, brutal, despisers of good, traitors, headstrong, haughty, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, having a form of godliness but denying its power. And from such people turn away, for his name is Obama."

[Repeal The 17th]

Some of the more reliable prognosticators say the senate will be 51D and 49 R.
But that is not the true picture...
It would actually be 49D and 49R (since Lieberman and Sanders are both “Independent”).

[SC_Pete]

Gallup’s have been consistently lower. They have been hoping against hope. In the end they had to report the true scientific fact: BLOWOUT. Polling is a business, and in the end they had to protect their credibility.

Rasmussen doesn’t play these games. He’s been the best and most consistent over the years.

[Longbow1969]

Gallup’s have been consistently lower. They have been hoping against hope. In the end they had to report the true scientific fact: BLOWOUT. Polling is a business, and in the end they had to protect their credibility.

No, actually Gallup had its Likely Voter screen MORE in favor of us in the weeks previous to this run. See here:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/127439/Election-2010-Key-Indicators.aspx

On 10/3 they actually had an 18 point spread in our favor. This story we are commenting on is based on the most recent numbers which show only a 14 point spread.

[OrangeHoof]

The two things to take note about this:

1) Notice how moderates have steadily eroded. The electorate has become more polarized every election season.

2) More people this election season are fleeing the Democrats than joining the Republicans, which also matches a lot of the sentiment we’ve seen elsewhere. I think the Tea Party brand is more favorable to non-Republicans than is the Republican brand. That’s why the media has tried hard for two years to smear them.

[A Strict Constructionist]

“Independent”

ROTFLMAO!!! The only thing funnier is when someone tells me McPain is a conservative.

[Viking2002]

The media hasn't needed to put much energy into painting the modern Republican Party as an obtuse, cartoonish country club as of late - they've pretty much been able to do that on their own, which is why so many conservatives don't (or won't) identify with them personally, even though they will, as a rule, pull the lever for anyone with an (R) next to their name. Moderates and Joe Sixpack Democrats are beginning to realize what an existential nightmare that the Democrat Party has become, and The Tea Party brand has offered a safe port to all three from the boorish elitism on both sides.

"But know this, that in the last days perilous times will come: for men will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, unloving, unforgiving, slanderers, without self-control, brutal, despisers of good, traitors, headstrong, haughty, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God, having a form of godliness but denying its power. And from such people turn away, for his name is Obama."

[genghis]

the bad news for the rats
is every day is getting worse

more than 660 in the house
8+ in the senate
7 govs and 600 in the state houses

[fortheDeclaration]

Wait until Friday-intrade will have the GOP winning the Senate.

No way you have a wave this size and not take the Senate as well.

[SC_Pete]

Thanks. I stand corrected. I am very sceptical about polling companies manipulating the data. Looks like Gallup is doing a decent job.