Free Republic
Browse · Search		 News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

KeyHouseRaces 30 October Update - We added MA-04, ME-01, MO-03 and TX-27 to the Master List
KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 30 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 10/30/2010 11:12:27 AM PDT by InterceptPoint

click here to read article

Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-40, 41-59 next last
I'm posting our "Experts" page this week. A huge sea of red showing the continuing movement of the House races in favor of the GOP.

District Incumbent Party Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Toss-Up Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AL 2
AR 1 Open D Open D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AR 1
AR 2 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R AR 2
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AZ 5
AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up AZ 7
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up AZ 8
CA 3 Dan Lungren Incumbent R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R CA 11
CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans D Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Leans R CA 20
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D CA 47
CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R CO 4
CO 7 Ed Perlmutter Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Likely D Likely D Weak D Likely D Likely D Leans D CO 7
CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up CT 5
DE AL Open R Open R Leans D -1.5 Leans D Likely D Mod D Likely D Leans D Leans D DE AL
FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Leans R Safe R Leans R Likely R Leans R FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R FL 8
FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R FL 24
FL 25 Open R Open R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R FL 25
GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up GA 2
GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R GA 8
HI 1 Charles Djou Incumbent R Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up HI 1
IA 1 Bruce Braley Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Likely D Leans D IA 1
IA 2 Dave Loebsack Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Likely D Leans D Safe D Leans D Likely D Leans D IA 2
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Leans D IA 3
ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans R Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up ID 1
IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D IL 8
IL 10 Open R Open R Toss-Up -0.3 Leans D Leans D Weak R Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Likely R 1.8 Leans R Likely R Safe R Leans R Likely R Likely R IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IL 14
IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IL 17
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up IN 2
IN 8 Open D Open D Likely R 1.8 Leans R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Leans R IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IN 9
KS 3 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R KS 3
KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up 6 0
LA 2 Joseph Cao Incumbent R Leans D -1.3 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D LA 2
LA 3 Open D Open D Likely R 2.3 Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R LA 3
MA 4 Barney Frank Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Leans D MA 4
MA 10 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MA 10
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R MD 1
ME 1 Chellie Pingree Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up ME 1
MI 1 Open D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up MI 9
MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Leans D Leans D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D MN 1
MN 8 Jim Oberstar Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up MN 8
MO 3 Russ Carnahan Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Likely D Leans D MO 3
MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MO 4
MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MS 1
MS 4 Gene Taylor Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Safe D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MS 4
NC 2 Bob Etheridge Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up NC 2
NC 7 Mike McIntyre Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up NC 7
NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Leans R NC 8
NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NC 11
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up ND AL
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R NH 1
NH 2 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.2 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D NH 2
NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NJ 3
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R NM 2
NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NV 3
NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Likely D Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NY 20
NY 22 Maurice Hinchey Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Leans D NY 22
NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Leans D Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 25
NY 29 Open D Open D Likely R 2.3 Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R NY 29
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans D Likely R Leans R OH 1
OH 6 Charlie Wilson Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Safe D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up OH 6
OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Likely R 1.7 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Likely R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Leans D Toss-Up Leans R OH 18
OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up OR 5
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D PA 4
PA 7 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Leans R Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans D Toss-Up Leans R PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D PA 17
RI 1 Open D Open D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up RI 1
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R SC 5
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R SD AL
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up TN 4
TN 6 Open D Open D Likely R 2.3 Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 8
TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Likely R 1.8 Leans R Likely R Safe R Leans R Likely R Likely R TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up TX 23
TX 27 Solomon Ortiz Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D Likely D Leans D TX 27
VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Leans R Leans R Leans R VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up VA 11
WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up WA 2
WA 3 Open D Open D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Toss-Up WA 3
WA 8 Dave Reichert Incumbent R Leans R 1.5 Leans R Leans R Mod R Likely R Likely R Leans R WA 8
WI 3 Ron Kind Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D WI 3
WI 7 Open D Open D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R WI 8
WV 1 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up WV 1
WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Safe D Leans D WV 3
District Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
Average Toss-Up 0.035 Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Average
Updated 30-Oct-10 -0.037 -0.250 0.407 -0.046 -0.139 0.370 Updated
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
Rating
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5

1 posted on 10/30/2010 11:12:31 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]
To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ...

2 posted on 10/30/2010 11:15:33 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

Please add MA-5 Golnik (R) vs Tsongas (D)to this list.


3 posted on 10/30/2010 11:19:16 AM PDT by NewEnglander
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

Thanks much.


4 posted on 10/30/2010 11:22:50 AM PDT by Quix (Times are a changin' INSURE you have believed in your heart & confessed Jesus as Lord Come NtheFlesh)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint
Unless all the polls are wrong it seems 60+ in the House is going to happen! Unbelievable and wonderful! And if that is the case, Senate seats are going to have to move with it...meaning close Senate seats should go "R" as well.

60-70 in the House and 7-9 in the Senate. With hopefully both Reid and Boxer going down! Would love to see Rossi in WA (but just can't see WA voting an R in there right now).

5 posted on 10/30/2010 11:26:24 AM PDT by SevenMinusOne
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint
Just for completeness, here is our ranked list of the 110 seats in play:

Rank District Democrat Seat Republican Avg. Experts District
1 LA 3 Ravi Sangisetty Open D Jeff Landry 2.3 Likely R LA 3
2 NY 29 Mathew Zeller Open D Tom Reed 2.3 Likely R NY 29
3 TN 6 Brett Carter Open D Diane Black 2.3 Likely R TN 6
4 AR 2 Joyce Elliott Open D Tim Griffin 2.2 Likely R AR 2
5 KS 3 Stephene Moore Open D Kevin Yoder 2.2 Likely R KS 3
6 TN 8 Roy Herron Open D Stephen Fincher 2.2 Likely R TN 8
7 IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Adam Kinzinger 1.8 Likely R IL 11
8 IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Open D Dr. Larry Bucshon 1.8 Likely R IN 8
9 TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Bill Flores 1.8 Likely R TX 17
10 OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Steve Stivers 1.7 Likely R OH 15
11 CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Cory Gardner 1.5 Leans R CO 4
12 FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Steve Southerland 1.5 Leans R FL 2
13 FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Sandy Adams 1.5 Leans R FL 24
14 PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Mike Kelly 1.5 Leans R PA 3
15 WA 8 Suzan DelBene Incumbent R Dave Reichert 1.5 Leans R WA 8
16 FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Daniel Webster 1.3 Leans R FL 8
17 NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Frank Guinta 1.3 Leans R NH 1
18 AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Paul Gosar 1.2 Leans R AZ 1
19 CA 3 Ami Bera Incumbent R Dan Lungren 1.2 Leans R CA 3
20 FL 25 Joe Garcia Open R David Rivera 1.2 Leans R FL 25
21 OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Steve Chabot 1.2 Leans R OH 1
22 WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Reid Ribble 1.2 Leans R WI 8
23 GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Austin Scott 1.0 Leans R GA 8
24 MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Andy Harris 1.0 Leans R MD 1
25 MI 1 Gary McDowell Open D Dr. Daniel Benishek 1.0 Leans R MI 1
26 NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Steve Pearce 0.8 Leans R NM 2
27 SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Mick Mulvaney 0.8 Leans R SC 5
28 VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Scott Rigell 0.8 Leans R VA 2
29 VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Robert Hurt 0.8 Leans R VA 5
30 WA 3 Denny Heck Open D Jaime Herrera 0.8 Leans R WA 3
31 AR 1 Chad Causey Open D Rick Crawford 0.7 Leans R AR 1
32 NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Dr. Joe Heck 0.7 Leans R NV 3
33 OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Jim Renacci 0.7 Leans R OH 16
34 WI 7 Julie Lassa Open D Sean Duffy 0.7 Leans R WI 7
35 AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D David Schweikert 0.5 Toss-Up AZ 5
36 CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D David Harmer 0.5 Toss-Up CA 11
37 CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Scott Tipton 0.5 Toss-Up CO 3
38 IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Randy Hultgren 0.5 Toss-Up IL 14
39 IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Todd Young 0.5 Toss-Up IN 9
40 MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Alan Nunnelee 0.5 Toss-Up MS 1
41 ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Rick Berg 0.5 Toss-Up ND AL
42 NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Nan Hayworth 0.5 Toss-Up NY 19
43 NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Chris Gibson 0.5 Toss-Up NY 20
44 NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Matt Doheny 0.5 Toss-Up NY 23
45 PA 7 Bryan Lentz Open D Pat Meehan 0.5 Toss-Up PA 7
46 PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Mike Fitzpatrick 0.5 Toss-Up PA 8
47 PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Tom Marino 0.5 Toss-Up PA 10
48 PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Lou Barletta 0.5 Toss-Up PA 11
49 SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Kristi Noem 0.5 Toss-Up SD AL
50 HI 1 Colleen Hanabusa Incumbent R Charles Djou 0.3 Toss-Up HI 1
51 FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Allen West 0.3 Toss-Up FL 22
52 IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Bobby Schilling 0.3 Toss-Up IL 17
53 MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Tim Walberg 0.3 Toss-Up MI 7
54 NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Harold Johnson 0.3 Toss-Up NC 8
55 NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Jon Runyan 0.3 Toss-Up NJ 3
56 OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Bob Gibbs 0.3 Toss-Up OH 18
57 TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Dr. Scott Desjarlais 0.3 Toss-Up TN 4
58 TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Quico Canseco 0.3 Toss-Up TX 23
59 WV 1 Mike Oliverio Open D David B. McKinley 0.3 Toss-Up WV 1
60 GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Mike Keown 0.2 Toss-Up GA 2
61 NH 2 Annie Kuster Open D Charlie Bass 0.2 Toss-Up NH 2
62 AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Jesse Kelly 0.0 Toss-Up AZ 8
63 MA 10 William Keating Open D Jeff Perry 0.0 Toss-Up MA 10
64 MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Vicky Hartzler 0.0 Toss-Up MO 4
65 OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Scott Bruun 0.0 Toss-Up OR 5
66 CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Andy Vidak -0.2 Toss-Up CA 20
67 ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Raul Labrador -0.2 Toss-Up ID 1
68 IL 10 Dan Seals Open R Bob Dold -0.3 Toss-Up IL 10
69 NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Richard Hanna -0.3 Toss-Up NY 24
70 AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Martha Roby -0.5 Toss-Up AL 2
71 MS 4 Gene Taylor Incumbent D Steven Palazzo -0.5 Toss-Up MS 4
72 NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Randy Altschuler -0.5 Toss-Up NY 1
73 OH 6 Charlie Wilson Incumbent D Bill Johnson -0.5 Toss-Up OH 6
74 PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Timothy Burns -0.7 Leans D PA 12
75 IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Jackie Walorski -0.7 Leans D IN 2
76 KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Andy Barr -0.7 Leans D KY 6
77 NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Jon Barela -0.7 Leans D NM 1
78 VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Morgan Griffith -0.7 Leans D VA 9
79 VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Keith Fimian -0.7 Leans D VA 11
80 WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D John Koster -0.7 Leans D WA 2
81 AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva Incumbent D Ruth McClung -0.8 Leans D AZ 7
82 CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Dan Debicella -1.0 Leans D CT 4
83 MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D "Rocky" Raczowski -1.0 Leans D MI 9
84 NC 2 Bob Etheridge Incumbent D Renee Ellmers -1.0 Leans D NC 2
85 CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Van Tran -1.2 Leans D CA 47
86 CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Sam Caligiuri -1.2 Leans D CT 5
87 IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Brad Zaun -1.2 Leans D IA 3
88 NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Mike Grimm -1.2 Leans D NY 13
89 RI 1 David Cicilline Open D John Loughlin -1.2 Leans D RI 1
90 LA 2 Cedric Richmond Incumbent R Joseph Cao -1.3 Leans D LA 2
91 MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Randy Demmer -1.3 Leans D MN 1
92 NC 7 Mike McIntyre Incumbent D Ilario Pantano -1.3 Leans D NC 7
93 NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Ann Marie Buerkle -1.3 Leans D NY 25
94 WI 3 Ron Kind Incumbent D Dan Kapanke -1.3 Leans D WI 3
95 DE AL John Carney Open R Glen Urquhart -1.5 Leans D DE AL
96 NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Jeff Miller -1.5 Leans D NC 4
97 CO 7 Ed Perlmutter Incumbent D Ryan Frazier -1.7 Likely D CO 7
98 IA 2 Dave Loebsack Incumbent D Marianneette Miller Meeks -1.7 Likely D IA 2
99 PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Keith Rothfus -1.7 Likely D PA 4
100 IA 1 Bruce Braley Incumbent D Ben Lange -1.8 Likely D IA 1
101 MN 8 Jim Oberstar Incumbent D Chip Cravaack -1.8 Likely D MN 8
102 MO 3 Russ Carnahan Incumbent D Ed Martin -1.8 Likely D MO 3
103 OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Tom Ganley -1.8 Likely D OH 13
104 MA 4 Barney Frank Incumbent D Sean Bielat -2.0 Likely D MA 4
105 ME 1 Chellie Pingree Incumbent D Dean Scontras -2.0 Likely D ME 1
106 NY 22 Maurice Hinchey Incumbent D George Phillips -2.0 Likely D NY 22
107 TX 27 Solomon Ortiz Incumbent D R. Blake Farenthold -2.0 Likely D TX 27
108 WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D "Spike" Maynard -2.0 Likely D WV 3
109 PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D David Argall -2.2 Likely D PA 17
110 IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Joe Walsh -2.3 Likely D IL 8

6 posted on 10/30/2010 11:26:41 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

http://www.keyhouseraces.com/content/master-list-ranking-races

The key to beating the 58 point spread is flipping the light blue and blue seats to red. Early results will come in from IN-2, IN-9, KY-6....

These are the races to watch and see if a WAVE will happen.


7 posted on 10/30/2010 11:28:25 AM PDT by Drango (NO-vember is payback for April 15th)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]
To: SevenMinusOne

If we can get 65, that may pull the Senate seats over to where we get a majority there.


8 posted on 10/30/2010 11:29:12 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

Well, FWIW, here’s MY final House prediction..GOP nets +72. I like the 70% rule...so 70% of 103 is 70..we lose 3 GOP seats..thats 67..but I’m adding 5 more because it’s gonna be a really big wave..


9 posted on 10/30/2010 11:32:46 AM PDT by ken5050 (I don't need sex.....the government screws me every day..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

I predict we win at least 75% of the seats in play and hold the 7 Repub seats.

So .75 x 110 = 82.5 An 83 seat win as it stands now. ;-)


10 posted on 10/30/2010 11:33:29 AM PDT by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

“KHR 50”

Well I’m glad to see you guys having SOME doubts about your ability to predict anything. :)

So what’s your affiliation and turnout model? :) :)


11 posted on 10/30/2010 11:42:47 AM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi (Moutaineers are Always Free)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

will you be updating this through the evening on Tuesday with official results?? that’d be great...


12 posted on 10/30/2010 11:54:43 AM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

Thanks, I.P. I love these charts.

Slightly tangential, but I wonder what time of night we’ll get to see the LSM grudgingly concede that the GOP has gotten their 39 seats?

(Trying not to prematurely count chickens here.)


13 posted on 10/30/2010 11:55:50 AM PDT by SnuffaBolshevik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint
Thanks for the ping!

I'm hoping early results from the eastern part of the nation discourages dem voters in CA so they just stay home, resulting in a loss for Boxer and Brown!

14 posted on 10/30/2010 11:55:57 AM PDT by CAluvdubya ("May we always be happy & may our enemies always know it!"-Sarah Palin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]
To: Red Steel

I think the GOP holds 5 of the 7 GOP seats and wins 70% of the Dim seats in play. So I get 5 + .7*103 = 77 rounded.


15 posted on 10/30/2010 11:57:37 AM PDT by JLS (Democrats: People who won't even let you enjoy an unseasonably warm winter day.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]
To: MontaniSemperLiberi
I don't know why I have to keep repeating myself, but let me be as clear as possible.

I am not "predicting" anything. That is, I am not making guesses about turnout, or historical trends from past elections, or crossover impacts from one race to another.

Nor am I doing any statistical analysis. I am letting the pollsters and pundits do the statistical analysis. I am taking the RESULTS of their analysis and converting it to a probabilitistic analysis of the leader actually winning, using their outputs as my inputs.

I am leaving the "special sauce" to others and simply reporting the impacts of the numbers that THEY produce. This is about interpreting what the pundits are saying.

-PJ

16 posted on 10/30/2010 11:58:55 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

Reporting Voter Fraud

The Republican Party has set up a National Hotline, which will be staffed with Attorneys to handle polling issues as well as possible voter fraud or intimidation.
1 - 888 - 775 - 8117. IF you even SUSPECT this is happening, PLEASE call for their free advice.

http://www.resistnet.com/


17 posted on 10/30/2010 12:01:18 PM PDT by Mortrey (Impeach President Soros)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]
To: God luvs America
will you be updating this through the evening on Tuesday with official results?? that’d be great..

I'm going to give it a try. If I can get the Freeper community to post races that have been called one way or the other I will be able to do it.

I also hope to post a pdf file for the Master List and possibly the Tier 2 and just maybe a Longshot List for downloading and printing on Tuesday. If it works out I'll post the link on the Tuesday KeyHouseRaces thread.

18 posted on 10/30/2010 12:05:13 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]
To: Political Junkie Too

You are making an implicit assumption that the central limit theorem applies and that the covariance of the distributions are zero, whether you realize it or not.


19 posted on 10/30/2010 12:05:30 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi (Moutaineers are Always Free)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]
To: InterceptPoint

I’ve maintained 80 seats will be in serious play, I do not know if the GOP can pull off a 80 seat win on Tuesday evening as that requires many things to break perfectly in the GOP’s direction the way things broke in the Dhimmis direction 2008.

The movement of late breaking deciders to the GOP is exactly the final trend I have said should be looked for, when in doubt, throw the bums out.


20 posted on 10/30/2010 12:05:58 PM PDT by padre35 (You shall not ignore the laws of God, the Market, the Jungle, and Reciprocity Rm10.10)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-20, 21-40, 41-59 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search		 News/Activism
Topics · Post Article
FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson