[randita]

Are the "Experts" still running well behind the trend?

I think they are. The Senate races curve has flattened because there has been extensive polling and publicity on the Senate races for months. Much easier to poll 37 seats, most with candidates established well in advance than over 100 where many primaries were free for alls.

Also, a statewide dynamic is much easier to define than a district wide one.

It's amazing how many undecideds there still are in many of the House races compared to the Senate races. It's the undecideds breaking for the GOP House candidates recently ( they've started to pay attention to the election) that have caused the upward trend. No reason to think that those independents won't continue to break toward the GOP.

I think the NRCC strategy of spending early to bring swing districts into play and create momentum paid off. They got the train rolling early and once it got rolling, it couldn't be slowed or stopped.

[Political Junkie Too]

It's also interesting to note that the poll-based model crossed the 50% mark back on September 9, while the experts didn't cross the 50% mark until October 9.

-PJ