Posted on 11/01/2010 9:36:05 AM PDT by Second Amendment First
RENO, Nev. - If Harry Reid loses this election, it will be a crushing end to a storied political career. The majority leader of the United States Senate will have been defeated after four terms by an opponent he doesn't respect or even take seriously. He will be the victim, in his view, of an electorate gone mad, taken down in his prime after rising higher than anyone from his state ever has.
Is this the twilight of the majority leader? Reid certainly doesn't think so. He refuses to acknowledge the possibility that he could lose on Tuesday and has refused to grow wistful or discouraged in his campaign's final hours. "I'm very happy with the campaign and how we're doing," he said, grim-faced, pointing to early voting turnout breakdowns showing that more than 9,000 more Democrats than Republicans had cast pre-Election Day ballots across the state.
Asked how he could be so confident when polls have consistently shown his opponent ahead for weeks, Reid's frayed nerves came to the surface. "I'm not going to get into this poll stuff, OK?" he snapped, pale eyes flashing. "We're satisfied where we are. We're fine, OK? So I'm not going to get into polling with you. All you have to do is look at early voting."
Reid was speaking at his Reno campaign headquarters, an office-park suite in an industrial neighborhood. Stacks of door-hanger flyers on the tables showed an unflattering photograph of his opponent, Republican Sharron Angle, with the words: "Not just risky. Not just dangerous. Not just outright crazy. Too extreme for Nevada. If Sharron Angle's extreme ideas alarm you, vote for Harry Reid."
It is possible Reid will defy the polls. The state's preeminent pundit, Jon Ralston, predicted as much in his Sunday column, noting that more than half the electorate has already weighed in and Angle would have to be winning the independent vote by about 15 points to be in the lead. "Harry Reid is the most resilient figure in Nevada political history," Ralston wrote, noting that the senator has run a flawless campaign against a little-known, gaffe-prone challenger. "I think he finds a way to survive."
Democrats in Nevada truly believe Reid will prevail — they're not just trying to put a good face on a situation they know is doomed, the way, say, the McCain camp did in the waning days of 2008. They don't think Reid is going to lose partly because they can't imagine it. It's too awful a possibility to even entertain.
"It's amazing that a woman who has accomplished virtually nothing — I served with Sharron Angle in the state assembly for eight years — that someone like that has a chance against the greatest senator Nevada has ever had, " Democratic state legislator Sheila Leslie said. "To think that she could win this race is unfathomable to me. I think he's ahead. I read the polls, but I have a lot of issues with how they're conducted."
One Nevada Democratic strategist not involved in the Reid campaign said Reid's people are "trying to latch onto every piece of good news that comes along. They don't believe any of the polls except their own" — internal tracking surveys that show Reid ahead.
"A lot of Democrats are telling themselves right now that people will come to their senses and refuse to vote for Sharron Angle," the strategist said. But this strategist thinks they're kidding themselves: "Harry Reid does not have enough luck left to pull this off."
Angle has a history of closing strong, says Robert Uithoven, a Reno-based Republican strategist who found out the hard way when his candidate, Sue Lowden, lost the primary to Angle.
"In the primary, after the polls closed and the absentee and early votes were reported, Lowden had a 3-point lead over Sharron Angle," he said. "Sharron Angle won the primary by 14 points. That's a 17-point shift on Election Day. We knew then that a lot of her base are Election Day voters."
In the Republican primaries Angle lost in 2006 and 2008, for Congress and state Senate respectively, she came much closer than polls or early totals suggested she would. "She underperforms in polls, and she underperforms in early voting," said Uithoven.
Democrats will tell you it is their ground game that will win the race -- Reid calls it "the best grass-roots campaign in the history of the country except in a presidential election." But Angle has been up against that before, Uithoven said: "The Lowden campaign invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in a strong voter ID and get-out-the-vote program." Angle's living-room campaign had nothing of the sort.
In hindsight, some Nevada analysts now wonder if Reid made a major miscalculation when he set out to defeat Lowden and make Angle the nominee. Lowden, this thinking goes, would not have had the energy of the tea party behind her. Lowden would not have been able to slam Reid as a wealthy plutocrat without calling attention to her own substantial plutocrat credentials. Lowden would not have been able to raise $14 million in three months from grassroots activists across the country.
At first, Angle looked like an easy mark -- a far-right ideologue, former member of a fringe third party, on the record not only saying she'd like to get rid of Social Security and the Department of Education but also espousing conspiracy theories about fluoride being harmful and mammograms causing cancer. With statements like seeming to advocate armed revolt -- "Second Amendment remedies" -- she alarmed establishment Republicans and the business community. Coming out of the primary with an amateur staff and little funding, she seemed to be in way over her head. The Reid campaign had a field day unearthing her past statements and airing virtually unanswered television ads.
Reid is an extremely savvy behind-the-scenes pol whom Nevadans in politics sometimes speak of in the hushed, fearful tones key lieutenants might reserve for their Godfather. He knew he would have a tough re-election -- his home-state approval ratings have been dismal ever since he became Democratic leader in 2004 -- and planned accordingly. He poured millions of dollars into the state Democratic Party, turning it into a disciplined organizational machine; he either co-opted or defeated his political enemies, helping to weaken the GOP apparatus in the state.
But Reid could not have anticipated that, just two years after his stratagems helped Barack Obama win Nevada by 12 points, the state would have the nation's highest unemployment rate, over 14 percent, and a Republican, anti-Washington mood would be sweeping the country. He could not have predicted that the opponent he considered his weakest possible challenger -- another version of the inexperienced social conservative he beat handily in 2004 -- would have at her back a national conservative grassroots movement, the tea party. Thanks to its shocking fundraising strength and air support from outside groups, Angle has been able to match Reid dollar for dollar. And while she didn't turn in a stellar performance in their only debate, Reid delivered such a shockingly underwhelming effort that she looked articulate by comparison.
At the Reno office Saturday, Reid declined to consider how this race stacks up against others he's been in. "Every fight you're in is always the hardest," he said blandly. Asked how Angle compared to other opponents he's faced, he was more blunt: "Well, really, honestly, way at the bottom," he said. "But for the economy, there wouldn't be a contest here."
Voters' negative feelings about Reid are deeply ingrained. At a hotel in Carson City, a group of Reno-based Shriners gathered for the weekend to observe Nevada Day, the anniversary of the state's founding. "You askin' about Harry? I say you can hang 'im," one of them, 73-year-old Dave Camara, said.
"I had a lady come to my door and ask me had I voted," said the shrine's potentate, 66-year-old David White. "I said yes. She asked me had I voted for Sharron Angle, and I said" -- an exaggerated, pained grimace -- "ye-e-e-s. She said, 'I saw that grimace.' I said, 'Do you get that a lot?' And she said" -- the grimace again -- "ye-e-e-s."
A naturalized British immigrant, White is a passionate advocate of socialized medicine. Yet he finds Reid too tolerant of illegal immigration and believes Reid is an out-of-touch elitist who's enriched himself while in office.
Another member of the group, 80-year-old Bob Yturiaga, piped up to defend Reid. "He has voted 100 percent for seniors, so I've got to go with that. I'm a senior," he said. "She's a radical. Even people in her own party think she's radical." Yturiaga, a stout man in black suspenders, gave his friends a defiant look.
Rallying the campaign troops Saturday and Sunday, Reid's inexpressive features only lit up when the talk turned to sports, bantering with high-school volunteers about their teams. "It's nice visiting with you boys to relive some of my glory days," he said.
Reid repeatedly told the story of a dead woman whose husband assured him she had cast an early vote for him before expiring. "I wish I had the ability to convey to everyone here my appreciation," he said. "I wish that I could convey with my mouth the feelings I have in my heart." He reminded the volunteers of the short time left and said, "I look forward to celebrating with you Tuesday night."
As Reid left the campaign office Sunday, flanked by security personnel and staff, he bent down to pet a fluffy white dog near the exit. The man sitting with the dog raised a hand to shake with the senator. But Reid was already gone.
The Politico mourning one of its own.
Maybe Harry shouldn't have 'crushed' that boondoggle ObamaCare down America's collective throats last Christmas. He deserves a crushing end to his corrupt political career! It will be a blessing in disguise for him!
Yes, Harry definitely appreciates every vote from dead people.
But, seriously, what kind of S.O.B. would think that the greatest thing this woman, now dead, did in her life was cast a vote for him? And go around telling this as an inspiring story?
A day of joy if Reid is dumped.
Sadness in d-bag town and Politico.
If (hopefully) Harry Reid goes down tomorrow night it will have been because he is an insufferable, arrogant, overreaching jackass and a lousy senator to boot.
The Las Vegas Sun this morning is predicting Reid will hold the seat. All the Democrat Aides & Operatives, along with an 11th-hour heavy push from the gaming industry within Nevada are all in cahoots to save Reid. So this one eveidently is far from over. Angles supposedly leads by 4% in the latest Rasmussen. But with all that’s lined up against her from the aides, operatives and casino people, she’ll need ever point of that percentage lead - and it still might not be enough.
I remember a bunch of Politico’s journalists were part of that “JournoList”.
Please, please Nevada, defeat this scumbag, I’m begging you. It would make my whole night.
I heard some of the Nevada McDonalds were hiring for graveyard shift janitors.
Harry Reid is 70 years old, wealthy and has a taxpayer paid pension is waiting for him in retirement. Shed no tears for him but for those who have been hurt by his political votes and influences in DC. Go enjoy your retirement Harry Reid and bye bye!
Reid’s big mistake was becoming majority leader and exposing his rat bastard, corrupt, viscous partisanship self to America. Not to mention declaring the Iraq war lost for political advantage.
Reid is a disgusting human being.
Reid’s big mistake was becoming majority leader and exposing his rat bastard, corrupt, viscous partisanship self to America. Not to mention declaring the Iraq war lost for political advantage.
Reid is a disgusting human being.
‘taken down in his prime’?
Putridly ripe perhaps but ‘prime’?
2. SEIU has a contract for maintaining the voting machines.
3. Harry Reid has connections in low places.
4. It's in Las Vegas.
5. Personally knows Al Franken, Obama and Pelosi, etc.
6. Democrat
Harry Reid
"I reject your reality and substitute it for my own."
Adam Savage
I wonder why all the dead always seem vote for the Demo? You'd think a truly independent press would want to know these things . . . .
How does a kid from Searchlight Nevada become a Communist?
Spend too much time in Washington, DC.
Harry’s intervention begins on Nov. 2.
He probably thinks, rightly, that Angle can’t win by 6, so his vote fraud operation will put him over the top.
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