Not buying it. The whole premise of their 5 reasons was, 1,2,3,4: the polls are wrong, and 5 was the Dems have a superior ground game, which might also be NYTimes doublespeak for voter fraud. I told myself in 2006, the GOP wouldn’t lose the House, the polls were wrong, because they always oversample Dems, etc, etc, and whadya know they were right.
I told myself in 2008, there wouldn’t be another blue flood, the polls are wrong, and whadya know, they were right. I think they’re right this time, too, so I would expect to take the House. I am hoping to get the Senate, too.
If the polls are wrong, my guess is that they're underestimating GOP votes/turnout. Anyone basing turnout on 2006 or 2008 is going to be flat-out wrong. But even those adjusting their turnout models to 2010 reality is probably going to err on the conservative side, and I think they've all missed just how much of a "wave" is coming.