Just to follow up Brooke.
I’d like to make an additional point.
I don’t think you should be so cavalier about the glaring disparity between the pre-election, exit polls and the election results. Before the vote machines the polls had a MUCH better record for accuracy. This record began to deteriorate only AFTER the introduction of these vote machines and continued to get worse as more and more machines were imposed. Do you think that a mere coincidence?
Is it mere coincidence that these polls became so inaccurate only after the imposition of the vote machines?
I know you have suggested that the omission of the cell only households was an important factor in the polls (ostensible) inacurracy. However as I said in my previous post it is difficult to determine whether the impact this demographic might have had on the election.
In addition I did some digging into this cell phone issue and fwiw there is no scientific data (yet) to support he contention that the omission of cell only people compromises poll integrity
> “You also haven’t considered the potential problems with the absentee vote count.”
Actually, I have. There’s no evidence of widespread absentee ballot fraud, or *ANY* absentee ballot fraud in Nevada. Period.
If you have something that shows otherwise, produce it.
> “you’re being a little naive dismissing Angle’s complaints on the basis of the Secretary of State’s rejecting her complaints.”
No, I’m not. In order for the complaint to be valid, at least one individual would need to come forward and, under penalty of perjury, state a specific violation of elections law which they had personally witnessed. None did. Therefore, the complaint was dismissed for lack of evidence. That’s not “being naive,” that’s black-letter law.
I gave your disparagement of Ross Miller all the consideration it deserved. Which is to say, “None.” I didn’t vote for Ross Miller, in fact I voted “none of these candidates.” Still, you have absolutely nothing to base your suspicions upon other than to say he’s a lifelong Democrat.
In my America, lifelong Democrats can still be honest. Lifelong Democrats can still be patriots. In my America, a man is innocent until proven guilty. Mr. Miller has never even been formally accused of election irregularities, so if it’s all the same to you, I’m completely uninterested in sliming Ross Miller with tinfoil hat bullsh1t conspiracy nonsense.
> “Before the vote machines the polls had a MUCH better record for accuracy.”
We’ve been using the Sequoia voting machines with a voter verified paper record system in Clark County for well over 10 years. I think they actually rolled them out 15 or more years ago.
The problem isn’t the voting machines. The problem is an outdated telephone polling method that fails to take into account the transient nature of the Las Vegas population, and the simple fact that a large percentage of people under 40 here do not have landlines.
Maybe you missed it, but Reid and Angle were statistically tied in every poll except for the final PPP poll. With a margin of error of +/- 4 points, Angle’s 49/45 lead could easily have been a 45/49 loss — which is pretty close to the way it played out.
> “there is no scientific data (yet) to support he contention that the omission of cell only people compromises poll integrity”
Okay. Well you got me. You’ve cited a national survey on cell phone use, which while informative, doesn’t actually give the numbers for Nevada generally, or Las Vegas in particular, where the majority of Nevada residents live.
> “given Obama’s and the Dems low popularity it may well have swung for Angle.”
Yes, Mr. Obama does have low popularity in Nevada, but I didn’t see a candidate named “Obama” or “the Dems” on the ballot. This was a race between Harry Reid, a known brand in Nevada for 40+ years and Sharron Angle, a unknown ultra rightwinger from rural Nevada who hasn’t won a race since 2004.
Sadly, during the week of early voting, Ms. Angle lost the race. It was close until she was videotaped 5 days before Election Day running from reporters, saying that she would answer questions only after she was Senator. Add that to her complete lack of any door-to-door GOTV effort and you have a statistical tie that turned into a Reid win.
I understand it’s upsetting that Mr. Reid won re-election; however, failing to properly attribute the loss to its true causes does absolutely nothing to help Republicans win next time.